Open thread, or whatever

[Bumped up to keep an open thread on top.]

Busy with some big events. But want to share some links and open a thread now that the ones below are running out of steam.

First, a superb book review on the life of China’s female migrant workers who leave the countryside for work in cities like Dongguan.

The women’s road from village to factory job is lined with manipulators and cheats, and the schools, which busily copy one another’s curriculums, in turn teach the virtues of lying as a means of getting ahead. “People who are too honest in this society will lose out,” one instructor told the author.

That’s true in a lot of places. Here especially, for lots of reasons.

Second, a surprisingly intelligent Dowd column of Colin Powell’s endorsement of Obama and the knee-jerk revulsion so many Americans feel at the notion of a Muslim in their midst.

In a gratifying “have you no sense of decency, Sir and Madam?” moment, Colin Powell went on “Meet the Press” on Sunday and talked about Khan, and the unseemly ways John McCain and Palin have been polarizing the country to try to get elected. It was a tonic to hear someone push back so clearly on ugly innuendo.

Even the Obama campaign has shied away from Muslims. The candidate has gone to synagogues but no mosques, and the campaign was embarrassed when it turned out that two young women in headscarves had not been allowed to stand behind Obama during a speech in Detroit because aides did not want them in the TV shot.

Violence in Taiwan:

Taiwanese television showed Zhang Mingqing, vice chairman of a mainland association handling cross-strait relations, lying on the ground beside his eyeglasses. Other footage showed an elderly woman hitting his car window with her cane and a pro-independence activist with a green headband stomping on the roof of the car.

That followed an incident Monday in which about 200 demonstrators yelled, cursed and heckled Zhang as he took the podium at Tainan National University of the Arts. Zhang was in Taiwan for an academic symposium, ostensibly in a nonofficial capacity. Taiwan and China often communicate through unofficial channels, given their strained relations.

Finally, Pomfret sounds gloomy about how the global financial crisis will affect China.

Any time the official New China News Agency files a piece with the headline: “Experts: China’s economy has ability to recover from slowdown,” it’s time to worry about China’s economy. You’ve already heard the news, no doubt.

Five straight quarters of slower growth. China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced this week that the nation’s economy grew at an annual rate of 9 percent in the quarter ending Sept. 30, the lowest since 2003 — when the SARS epidemic turned the economy upside down. Exports are shrinking so fast that some economists are predicting the sector will not grow at all next year.

More ominously for “social stability,” however, are the lay-offs. More than half of China’s 7,000 plus toy makers are out of business. More than 67,000 small- and medium-sized enterprises have gone belly up in the first nine months of this year, according to a report in the China Business News this week. There are an increasing number of reports about labor unrest among those turfed out of work.

For the record, I think Pomfret’s view is way too bleak. China has what it takes to deal with the situation: Money.

I think the only good news today is that Al Qaeda “endorsed” McCain. They endorsed Kerry the last time and look what happened.

The Discussion: 119 Comments

“The women’s road from village to factory job is lined with manipulators and cheats, and the schools, which busily copy one another’s curriculums, in turn teach the virtues of lying as a means of getting ahead. “People who are too honest in this society will lose out,” one instructor told the author.”

“Ah…GlassHoppa…like it says in the ‘Dao De Jing’: ‘Dao ke dao, feichang dao.'”

October 23, 2008 @ 9:07 am | Comment

I Think in 300 Years, Caucasians As A Race Will Be Extinct

The essence of life lies in the effort to reproduce. If any species loses the ability to reproduce, that that species is doomed. Therefore, from the minute a life is born, that life will start the work of trying to reproduce an offspring.

Then, we may ask, when Nature designed the human body, what is the reproductive organ designed for? The answer is of course, it is designed for reproducing offspring. The male penis and the female vagina are the important instruments of reproduction.

I think it’s totally possible that science will develop to a point where there’s no need to reproduce an offspring using the human reproductive organ, but instead produced in a factory, like how a car is produced today. But this perhaps will be far into the future, at least in the near future, maintaining and extending human population must still rely on the human reproductive organs.

Therefore, the reproductive organs are very important, and are designed for serious use. They must not be used as toys for entertainment, and must be kept in good conditions. For example, the eye is also a critical function of a human, who will use the eye as a toy and play with it?

But human society develops to a point where a group of people have ascended to the upper class or the ruling class. Once they become the ruling class, they do not need to worry about survival, and it leads them to treat their reproductive organs as toys. This in turn leads to the deterioration of those organs, statistically speaking, their reproductive organs are no longer as healthy as the people of the lower class. Also, because of their addiction to playing with their organs, they refuse to engage in reproduction. These 2 factors together lead to the slowdown or negative growth of population.

Now if you look at Israel. Today’s Israel has a population of roughly 3 million. But was surrounded by hundreds of millions of Muslims. No matter how smart, how hardworking the Israelis are, the sheer population gap between them and the Islamists means there’s no hope for Israel. If 2000 years ago, the Israelis also paid attention to “population maximization” like the Chinese, then perhaps today, the Israeli population would be around 200 million or so (assuming a 0.05% annual population increase). The strength and power of 200 million Israelis are enough to destroy the entire population of all Muslisms.

Historically, the West was ruled by a slavery system, therefore as soon as people become rich, they become salacious. And when they become salacious, they start to play with their reprodutive organs, hurting their ability to reproduce, causing population declines. This becomes a self-destructive process. This process can last for as long as 300 years. The slave owners and ruling class of the Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome all damaged their reproductive organs because of salaciousness, and once their reproductive organs are damaged, then all the great democracy system, the freedom of speech, are for nothing. Soon, the slave owner class was destroyed by the slaves, whose reproductive organs were in a much better state than their ruling class. The famous hollywood movie “Gladiator” is a good example.

Unfortunately, today’s Americans and British and French and all the Western White people are repeating the same mistakes as their slave owner ancestors. They are talking about sexual liberation, and create all kinds of complex theories to justify treating one’s reprodutive organs as toys. This is the start of a self-destrutive process that the Romans and the Greeks went through. Therefore,

People in many African countries also treat their reproductive organs as toys. This causes the AIDS rate in Africa to be about 30%. That is, when you meet a live African, there’s a 30% chance that it has AIDS.

Therefore, I believe China should start a national movement to protect citizen’s reprodutive organs, and not treat them as toys, and maintain their healthy status. This is an important step towards avoiding the extinction of the Chinese race.

In fact, in Ancient China, there was a good culture of protecting those organs. For example, in Ancient China, when a man marries a woman, he wished that the woman was a virgain. In other words, he wished that he could receive an unopened and unused package, and not a refurbished one – the better the quality of the product, the better it is for reprodutive purposes. This I believe was a very good tradition.

Also, in many Islamic cultures, unfilial wives will get burned alive as a punishement to deter such acts. This is of course intended to preserve the reprodutive organ, because cheating outside of marriage will increase chance of STD’s. But of course the method of punishment is not humanitarian enough.

But in today’s West, everyone is treating their reprodutive organs as a toy, and this is slowly becoming a trend and a fashionable thing, and is slowly being introduced by Chinese rightist intellectuals into China. This has the potential to start the same self-destructive process for the Chinese race. In introducing this harmful custom, there are many myths that are being introduced as well:

The first myth is that, a person must regularly have sex, otherwise he will have psychological problems. There’s no proof of this. Many animals, such as bear, pigeons, flies, foxes, take a very long time to find a mating partner, and the mating process itself is very short. But this has not affected their healthy or their mental state. In terms of efficient reprodution, if a person desires to have 5 children in his life, then he just needs to have sex a maximum of 5 times in his life.

In fact, the opposite is true. A person who treats his reprodutive organs purely as a toy, then it is against the rules of nature, and that will actually lead to pscyhological prblems. Just look at the amount of bondage societies, torture clubs, incest acts, anal licks, school shootings in the West.

We must understand, reprodutive organs are used to reproduce, not to play. If an entire race starts to treat their reproductive organs as toys, then they have taken a poison, and will have started to slowly self-destruct, and eventually it will become extinct.

I predict that 300 years from today, Caucasians will be the first race on this planet to become extinct.

October 23, 2008 @ 9:20 am | Comment

On Chinese female migrant worker: I have been paying a lot attention to this group, will try to read this book if I have time. It’s sad to acknowledge the truthfulness of the description in the book review that Chinese society “in turn teach the virtues of lying as a means of getting ahead”, seems we haven’t figured out a way to get out of this cesspool given the current system.

On Powell’s endorsement: A great speech, should being a muslim a shame or even a curse in the so-called “melting pot”, “land of the free”, “shining city on the hill”? I’d like to even stretch further–is there something wrong with some seven-year-old buddhist/athetist American kid believing that he or she could be president? however, I don’t see any possibility of a muslim/buddhist becoming American president in the next 100 years, or an athetist American president in the next 200 years. Religion has been playing too important a part in American politics, it’s time to look back and ponder–in any free nation, should being a believer the only way to prove that you are a passionate, just and trustful person who can be handled the responsibilty of leading this nation?

On violence in Taiwan: Shame on the DPP radicals, they have totally lost my respect for being freedom-fighters, their only agenda is to fan the flames of ethnic hatred and antaganize the opponents at all costs and with all means in order to crash any hope of long-term peace or reconcilation because only in chaos and riots can hooligans find their intrinsic value, I wonder whether their next scheme will be assassinating the first high-rank mainland official to set foot on their “peace-loving” land, God forbid!

On Pomfret’s assemssment of the status of Chinese economy: He’s perfectly right that there’s no way for an export-oriented economy like China to insulate itself from the global financial melt-down. The coastal city where I live has seen growing number of lay-off migrant workers gathering in font of the gates of local goverment buildings asking for compensation and relief of their sufferings, the problem is, this is a rich city so they have the financial capacity to pay them off, but what about other cities in China? In a country where everything is controlled by the government, shouldn’t people ask the government to take over their lives when they lost their only means of living?

October 23, 2008 @ 9:26 am | Comment

Mainlander, good points throughout. About the last sentence, the answer is that China will indeed step up welfare for the increasing hordes of unemployed, maybe by showering money on the entities that agree to hire them. In other words, they will have to dig deep into their own treasury, like the US, to try to hold things together. Luckily for them, they actually have some money in their piggy bank and exports to the US are not China’s sole source of revenues. It’ll hurt, certainly. But it won’t devastate. In the US, it will devastate. That momentary euphoria over the new stimulus package is now over, and the earnings reports coming out now tell the truth: the US is in for a long, agonizing recession with lots of layoffs, bankruptcies and general malaise.

Math, so tell us: Do you think it’s a good thing that in “many Islamic cultures” women are burned alive to “preserve” the society’s “reproductive organs”? Definitely one of your oddest comments to date. And a good thing the Chinese people don’t have lot of sex. If you believe that, there’s a barber shop down the street I’d like to take you to….

October 23, 2008 @ 9:53 am | Comment

I don’t know how anybody can support DPP and feel good about it. It is such a backward-looking group devoid of any real sense of political purpose. Worse, the radicals still refuse to cut their tie with Chen Shui Bien.

I believe DPP’s future is very bleak. The party institution is just too weak for the new generation to overcome the grip of the old guards.

October 23, 2008 @ 10:17 am | Comment



Oh boy, thank you for making me laugh so much this morning. Did you really come up with this all by yourself ? It’s amazing.

It’s one of the most backward and twisted piece I’ve ever read here. if your comments reflect your life, then I feel sorry for you. The only word that pops to my mind is: Caveman.

Btw, when they ask you to strap it around your waist and you smell gun powder, don’t ask questions, just press the button.

And I agree with Richard, you awfully sound like Hong Xing.

October 23, 2008 @ 10:24 am | Comment

That really is one of the oddest things I’ve ever seen Math say, and that is almost Alice-in-Wonderland odd. No……Sarah Palin odd. Maybe even Jerry Falwell odd. Especially considering the population of China is about to dramatically decrease in the next century due to the one child policy and increased education and income levels. Maybe everyone will be Indian or African in 300 years?

October 23, 2008 @ 10:29 am | Comment

Maybe that explains why all the “toy” factories are closing now in China. A local official must have misunderstood Math’s directives at the last CCP congress.

October 23, 2008 @ 10:43 am | Comment


I just don’t see how you are so optimistic about the Chinese economy and so pessimistic about the US economy. From the beginning, you were predicting the economic “rapture” in the US, but in my mind, I think that this downturn may turn out to be a great thing. It’s a chance not only for the global markets to do some well-needed re-adjusting, but also a chance for a new political discourse in the US to take shape. It’s going to be a tough couple years for sure, but I think that we will come out alright.

For China, I realize that they have buckets of money, but you seem to assume that once these factories go under, there will be other places willing to employ the laid off workers. As hard as it is to find a job now, where are all these “entities that agree to hire them” coming from? Factories are closing, not opening up…

October 23, 2008 @ 11:34 am | Comment

Agree with AndyR, Richard. I know the factories I deal with in China are hurting badly, and some have closed. All are hurting, and desperate. My main trading partner is very desperate, and I feel for the guy. We are trying to help all we can. And it’s because the U.S. economy is slow. These factory owners and management are the middle class. How people think domestic consumption will get China through the world-wide slowdown, I have no idea how that works. Where do you think the middle class come from in China?

October 23, 2008 @ 12:01 pm | Comment

“The women’s road from village to factory job is lined with manipulators and cheats, and the schools, which busily copy one another’s curriculums, in turn teach the virtues of lying as a means of getting ahead. “People who are too honest in this society will lose out,” one instructor told the author.”

So Chinese parents and teachers actually teach Chinese people to be dishonest? You’ve got to be kidding me! How common is this phenomenon? Do you mean to say that the Chinese aren’t able to articulate why it’s important to tell the truth?
Holy Moley!

October 23, 2008 @ 12:22 pm | Comment

Andy, there’s going to be pain in China, but there will be enough subsidization to keep things moving along – maybe 4 percent growth instead of 11 percent. Just as we’ll see in America, the government will do a lot of hiring; the next New Deal is upon us. It may not always look like the government doing the hiring, but they’ll be the ones making it possible. Let’s check back in three months and see; until then, it’s pure conjecture, but my conjectures are usually, if not always, accurate.

If you want to see the financial crisis in America as a “great thing,” by all means feel free to do so. I’ll just say that it hasn’t even started yet, and that I believe when it starts for real you may feel somewhat inclined to change that description.

Matt, same. There will be serious pain in China. There will be unemployment and a slowdown. I and George Soros and many other China watchers believe the relative impact of the global meltdown will be far less on China as on the US. I have spoken. Now we watch and wait.

October 23, 2008 @ 12:26 pm | Comment

On any issue, the U.S is head above water compared to China. A free press exists and continues to report (including the failings of the Bush admin/corporate impropriety/questioning motives for GW3/scrutinising politicans/interest groups…), checks and balances through the Constitition and election process. Public debate is alive and well in the States -whether it be healthcare, defence, social security, law and order – that the U.S does not abide by your ideologies/world view does not make them worse than China. People can say F**k Bush to all and sundry in the U.S and take a crap on the flag. You might get beat up by an irate citizen at the very worst- but try political free speech and flag desecration in Tiananmen square in China and you’ll wish you had been sent to Gitmo. Why do people laud China? They are nationalistic, imperialistic (buying up as many tinpot dictators in Africa as they can), arrogant, ignorant, ill-mannered, loutish, heavy handed, brutal, immoral and manipulative. (of course not forgetting the abominable ‘Cultural Revolution’ in which millions perished through inept and malicious Mao driven policies). Oh. And the majority of Chinese internet dwellers are stuck behind the ‘Great Firewall’ of China with strict censorship in place – and you think the U.S is comparable? Strangely, people are silent on issues on China. The U.S is easy to have a go at because just about all their ills are reported through a transparent media. Notice that the U.S media routinely embarrasses the Bush Administration and exposes all sorts of stuff that the govt and big business would prefer kept quiet?

This policy can always be scrapped. Stupid laws/policies are implemented all the time. If they don’t work or impose unnessary burdens and unfair then they can be revoked.

Pro-China shillers and astroturfers, grow some perspective and proportionality.

October 23, 2008 @ 12:44 pm | Comment

ISM, two separate conversations. This is not a question about whether China is a better place than the US. It’s about which will be hit harder by the financial mess. All of the issues you tediously list have been discussed here many times before and are completely irrelevant to the issue at hand.

I’ve seen your site and think you’re one scary guy. I’ll let this go this time. But I don’t think you’ll be commenting here very much, based on the racism I’ve seen at your site.

October 23, 2008 @ 1:20 pm | Comment

About how China will do it, see this piece from today’s NYT.

China still seems likely to avoid an outright recession, but a significantly slower growth would pose a political challenge for the Communist Party, which derives much of its legitimacy from delivering jobs and increasing wealth. Conventional wisdom holds that China’s output must grow at a minimum of 8 percent for the economy to produce enough jobs to absorb increases in the working-age population, and many economists expect growth to drop below that level next year.

Just last week, thousands of unemployed workers protested outside closed toy factories in Guangdong Province, the country’s export hub. Slightly more than half the country’s toy exporters shut down in the first seven months of this year, mostly small companies that struggled to cope with new safety standards as well as weakening Western demand, according to China’s customs agency.

If the growth rate “goes below 8 percent in 2009, I think they will be quite concerned,” said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China specialist currently at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “They are always concerned about job creation.”

Already, Chinese leaders are preparing a response that could resemble the government spending spree from 1998 to 2000 that is credited with helping China avoid the worst of the Asian financial crisis that broke out in 1997. Former Prime Minister Zhu Rongji poured billions of dollars into flood control, road building and new airport projects to stimulate economic output. Much of that infrastructure is now considered essential to China’s competitive advantage as a manufacturing exporter.

As I said, there is only one thing that China has that the US doesn’t have when it comes to controlling the meltdown: money. This article reflects the heart of my argument: what will be a shattering recession for America will be a painful but not shattering slowdown for China. Public spending, that age-old cure-all, will be the primary antidote. It won’t be fun, and it wlil be fascinating to see how the CCP’s image holds up – will the rampant nationalism continue when the economic miracle proves to be a lot less miraculous? My guess is some lost luster, a lot more riots and disturbances and Internet chatter, less robust nationalism, leaner lifestyles, etc., but little more. Not if they can use money the way Zhu Rongji did.

October 23, 2008 @ 1:31 pm | Comment

“As I said, there is only one thing that China has that the US doesn’t have when it comes to controlling the meltdown: money.”

The US no money? They have the money printing press!

They can print as much as they want if need be, and faster than its depreciation value.

October 23, 2008 @ 3:08 pm | Comment

“Anal licks”?

Wow! Math, this one wins a prize!

October 23, 2008 @ 3:26 pm | Comment

“In fact, in Ancient China, there was a good culture of protecting those organs.”

Yes Math, the best way to prevent the Emperor’s horny Chinese male servants to play with their didi, was to cut it.

I am sure you would have been happy back then, you would not even have to come up with such absurd and retarded proposals.

October 23, 2008 @ 3:42 pm | Comment


“They can print as much as they want if need be, and faster than its depreciation value.”

That’s a joke, right?


certainly the ccp has money. but can it use it wisely? i think vast amounts of money pouring into the provinces will cause large scale larceny. i agree that china isn’t going to go into a recession – but the received wisdom is that china is economically different needing a higher rate of growth to create jobs than the west needs. one thing i would like to know is whether that holds true. i did read ecently that china’s working age population has peaked.

secondly, what can the ccp spend money on? doesn’t it largely have the infrastructure in place? how many more bridges, railway lines and airports can be feasibly built? how many are necessary? what china needs are schools, universities and hospitals, rather than another bunch of empty apartment blocks. won’t the unemployed poor feel aggrieved with the idea of building infrastructure they don’t really use?

i agree broadly with what you say, but feel you are too bearish on the us and too bullish on china.

October 23, 2008 @ 4:07 pm | Comment

Everyone should read this brilliant piece on risk management in China by Michael Pettis:

October 23, 2008 @ 6:58 pm | Comment


You read that NYT article differently than I did.

I think the question all comes down to the flexibility of both governments and how quickly they can make the necessary economic and political transitions to minimize the effects of this crisis. I personally feel that as broke as America is its political/economic system is significantly more flexible than China’s (with the right leaders in place-Democrats *cough-cough*), and that despite its abundance China will face enormous trouble dealing with the political consequences of economic transition, let alone quickly get the domestic market humming to the point that it can make up for the loss of exports. Public works programs are an interesting fix and my hope is that they would bring more wealth to the countryside in the long run, but I still think you are overestimating their ability to absorb the fallout from factory closings. (Zhu Rongji had the advantage of a reasonably healthy US/European market to keep exports alive.)

I agree with your idea that we are going to see more riots (not sure about less nationalism) and leaner lifestyles in China, but what do you expect to see in the US? Anarchy? Civil War? Cannibalism? I expect that Americans will learn to tighten their belts and ride things out as they have in the past. When I say the financial crisis is a great thing, I mean that the US has been living in a dreamworld of affluence for the last few years and its time that we wake up and get beck to some of the Puritan economic values upon which the country was built. If it takes a crisis to do it then so be it. Personally, I’ve expected for years that my generation would not be as well-off as our parents, so I guess I’m not freaking out that we all may have to learn to live more frugally. I agree that this is just the beginning, but I would like to hear a description of where you think American is headed that it will be so much worse for the wear than China?

October 23, 2008 @ 7:58 pm | Comment

Si, I don’t know for sure whether the CCP can use the money wisely and avoid corrupt bureaucrats from seizing it all. I do know they’ve done several initiatives in the countryside surprisingly well, and when they really want to get things done and when they know that if they don’t they could end up out of power – then they make sure it gets done. Suddenly, they’re able to afford some extra watchdogs to go down and watch the till. Suddenly they’re able to bring in some efficiencies.

It’s a crap shoot; judging how they were able to get the Olympics done shows they can accomplish some pretty big missions. The vice mayor of Beijing, of course, was caught with his own hands in the till and was reaping millions in bribes and kickbacks from Olympic contractors. But here’s the thing – China was willing to spend so much money, there was enough to pay for the whole thing, and enough gravy to line the pockets of its bureaucrats. As the article said, Zhu Rongji did it in the 90s, when trade with the US and the EU was far less than what it is today, even with the recession. China will be hit hard, but won’t be knocked out the way the US will be.

Andy, yes, I expect to see cannibalism in America and civil war. Well, not really, but considering how comfortable America has been all these years, yes, it would be the equivalent of those things, at least for the working and lower-middle classes. I can’t prove any of these things, but I have good reason to believe it, mainly because as Rhys says above, America is printing money like it’s going out of style and that will catch up with us, rendering most of our money worthless. Hyperinflation would be the equivalent of cannibalism and civil war. If you don’t believe me, please read up on life in Weimar Germany under Brunner. The irony is that if this happens, the ones proved to be idiots will be the ones who saved money because it won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on. Anyway, Andy, it’s all conjecture and hot air. However, I’m certain I’m right. (Said in fun.)

October 23, 2008 @ 8:59 pm | Comment

“Hu Jia wins European rights prize”

October 23, 2008 @ 9:01 pm | Comment

Time to break out the tin hats.

October 23, 2008 @ 10:47 pm | Comment

@Invisible Sky Magician,

“On any issue, the U.S is head above water compared to China. A free press exists and continues to report (including the failings of the Bush admin/corporate impropriety/questioning motives for GW3/scrutinising politicans/interest groups…), checks and balances through the Constitition and election process. Public debate is alive and well in the States -whether it be healthcare, defence, social security, law and order – that the U.S does not abide by your ideologies/world view does not make them worse than China.”

A free press, checks and balances, public debate, democracy, rule of law, etc. are not enough to prevent the U.S from going down the drains of financial collapse, you people absolutely lacks humility and self-restrainst, which are necessary to keep a civilization alive and prosperous for more than 1 or 2 centuries, if not forever. Even if your country survived this crisis little scathed, trust me, if you don’t learn some hard lesson from it, there will be the second one and the third one… until your greenbacks which are mass printed like toilet paper lose the luster and are being dumped by disenchanted countries across the world. How the hell can you pay back your debt of tens of trillions of dollars? U.S. GDP now stands at about US $12 trillion, still bigger than your national debt, but don’t forget that most of it are from the services (mainly financial industry) industry which won’t be worth anything (remember how fast the price of Bearstern stocks drop when it went busted? things will certainly turn even nastier for your remaining financial institutions when the world don’t want your paper dollar any more) if foreigner creditors want fair reimbursement of the US currency, bonds, stocks they are holding. Given the current situation, the amount of dollars you must raise from the market by issuing more treasury bonds in order to bail out your banks and home-owners, the grand health care plan of Obama the next president and the two wars without end in sight and perhaps even more wars against terrorism and countries you deem rogue around the world in the future, it’s quite possible or even inevitable that the total national debt of the U.S will be much bigger than now and will explode in the end. Just like Mount Everest couldn’t grow higher forever because it won’t be able to support its own weight before it reaches 10,000 meters, your Mount Everest of debts will collapse and explode before it reaches let’s say 30 trillion dollars. When that day comes, all the gold in the world, even including every ounce of it ever been digged out by human being for the last 6 thousand years won’t be worth a fraction of it (it is said that 150,000 tons of gold have been produced by mankind, at current market price, they are worth about 3 trillion US $, and don’t forget that your national treasury only holds about 8,000 tons of gold). Forgive me if I don’t understand the essence of invisible economy, but the painful truth any American should face is that your manufacturing sectors are shrinking rapidly. Stripped off the over-valuation of US dollars, I bet that China is already a bigger manufactuer than the U.S. So when your golds are out, how many goods can you provide and how many buildings can you sell to foreign creditors?

I am not here as a China apologizer, China also won’t survive the global financial melt-down if dollar collapses, there will be no winners in that scenario, but normal Americans will be the people to feel the acutest pain and will be the last to get out of, believe me, if your people and country don’t make a darn serious decision here as quick as possible and make radical changes to the structure of the economy, when the real financial amagaden arrives, it will make Great-Depression looks like a joke.

I am also not a US-basher too, I grow up watching US movies and TV series and am still amazed by the vibrancy of your system and the kind-heartedness of your people. But now is the time for you to stop the knee-jerk reaction to any criticism of your life style and your political policy. Don’t blame Bush, Greenspan or Mccain for it, everyone living on the great land of yours shall bear their fair share of responsibility, time to wake up!

October 23, 2008 @ 10:51 pm | Comment


Did you use to say that CCP was pure evil and you gave it no credit for China’s phenomenal economic growth?

If so, you can now see what an active role CCP plays in China’s economy, which is like state guided capitalism. Right now the state is pumping money into infrastructure building to soften the blow of the global economic down turn. It is also holding the exchange rate steady to stabilize the export economy. The new land use right will inject more cash into the economy to combat the worldwide liquidity problem.

The Chinese government functions very differently from a typical developing country’s government, such as Mexico’s. In those countries the government do not manage their exchange rates, so their currencies tend to be stronger and people in these countries feel richer. On the other hand they often have currency account deficit (China has surplus). When bad time comes, their currencies collapse and their countries go bankrupt.

For CCP to come up with these wise economic policies is not the most difficult part. What impresses me is that CCP has both the will and the means to enact these policies effectively.

October 23, 2008 @ 10:55 pm | Comment

Heavens, Math. You’ve outdone yourself. I didn’t read the article until otherlisa pointed out a colorful phrase you used.

One interesting point Math touches on is the concept of tragedy of the commons, outlined by Garrett Hardin, 1968. Westernized cultures have lower birth rates and respond to appeals to that end, but are outnumbered by those who do not respond to that appeal. I know little else about it, but it makes my head hurt.

I hesitate to ask, but Math — can you tell us about your background?

October 23, 2008 @ 10:59 pm | Comment

The financial crises in the US also means there is less money for american businesses to invest in china.

When a company makes the decision to shut down a factory in the US and transition it to the PRC that requires capital to build the new factory.

The investment for the new factory does not come from inside China. The credit crises means companies cannot borrow money to build a new factory in china or open a new franchise.

There will still be investment, but it be significantly reduced.

China will continue to experience positive growth, but there will be an impact.

A recession also means fewer americans traveling to china in the summer for vacation. The tourist industry in China will feel the impact of that.

October 23, 2008 @ 11:09 pm | Comment

Serve the People, what I’ve argued is that the CCP played little to no role in the “Economic Miracle” of the 1980s – the party exploited the wildly successful efforts of some rather rebellious and enterprising peasants who, when given an inch by the CCP, grabbed a mile. It has done a decent job reforming its banks, protecting the country’s interests abroad and helping China to avoid a “hard landing” a couple of years ago. It can use, and has used, its massive surplus to hold things in check, something it’s done pretty well. It amounts to paying people off to be subservient and it requires no special genius, but considering the sheer size of the nation and the fact that the party’s been able to do this, your point is a fair one – what the CCP pulled off is no mean feat. Remember, they are managed by engineers. Engineers solve problems and make things work, though no one’s ever accused engineers of having too much of a big heart.

October 23, 2008 @ 11:29 pm | Comment

Lindel, they’ll feel the reverberation throughout many industries in China. Based on the NYT articles, the CCP technocrats are already calculating what the damages will be and how to buffer themselves.

October 23, 2008 @ 11:31 pm | Comment


I can answer for Math, he is a Taliban that found asylum in China after the war. He found some resonance in some traditional dinosaur’s old saying from China and determined it was a good ground to continue is holy mission.


“If 2000 years ago, the Israelis also paid attention to “population maximization” like the Chinese, then perhaps today, the Israeli population would be around 200 million”

Wait until 20-30 years when China is starving and drying up and that the earth crumbles because of Mao’s brilliant illumination of “maximizing the population”. You are truly insane to preach and praise overpopulation and power by the mass.

But… It just stroke me as I was reading your text again and replying uselessly… That it’s clearly a satire. You got me, I must agree. I haven’t been exposed too much to this kind of dark humor.

October 23, 2008 @ 11:44 pm | Comment

I hesitate to ask, but Math — can you tell us about your background?

LOL..Richard, are you sure you want to invite Math to talk about…er…things around the back after that opening comment?

32qu has a long article analyzing the possible impact. What’s Happening in China’s Economy?. The problem is, actually, money…inflation is a serious threat. There;s too much productive capacity and too much money in the economy.

Our elites have fucked up the world. It just makes me want to scream in frustration. if they had managed to control their greed and desire for unlimited power, the goose might have gone on laying golden eggs forever….


October 23, 2008 @ 11:49 pm | Comment

Michael, I’ve been surprised by the Chinese economy for years, I admit it. I was sure they were going to have a hard landing back in 2003-4. I was sure around the same time they were going to overheat and experience severe inflation. I was wrong. There’s no question China is struggling with inflation now, and using subsidies to lessen its effect and keep the masses pacified. How long the goose can keep laying these golden eggs is anyone’s guess.

There’s been speculation for so many years about an imminent financial crisis in China. I and others keep thinking, “It has to happen one day. Nothing last forever. Look at X, Y and Z factors – their economy has got to go down, and drag the party with it.” And hear we are, a quarter of a century later and, despite the aforementioned bumps of the 90s and some stagnation during the SARS nightmare, they appear to be holding up fairly well. I’ve long ago given up predicting when China’s bubble will burst. It was much easier to predict America’s trainwreck.

October 24, 2008 @ 12:06 am | Comment


i’d agree with what you say about the doom mongers, i remember reading coming collapse and being swyaed by its views. still waiting for the collapse, though. however perhaps it is fair to say that the reason you can see the us collapse coming is because the system is more open.


math never responds, he just posts. i’d be careful of how seriously you take him cos (a) he is a loon and (b) he also referred to africans as “it” in his post.


don’t worry about invisible sky magican – he is a wingnut. the point about the us deficit isn’t the money they owe, it is whether they are perceived to be able to service it. ultimately the us dollar is the world’s reserve currency and there are simply too many vested interests (such as china) to let it fail.

October 24, 2008 @ 1:01 am | Comment


You are greatly over estimating the CPP and under estimating the US government. Very surprising for an American.Or maybe it just show that you are balanced somehow.

Bear with me, I am coming to my conclusion very soon. But sadly I think that 99% of the “funny” hints I was referring to, just did not reach anybody. I am not surprised I must say. Nothing new here.

October 24, 2008 @ 1:19 am | Comment

You remember a while ago how, I pointed you to Nouriel Roubini, only this time I’d like to point you to a more obscure personage, major Scott P. Nolan, from the US Army. In my constant search to find non mainstream media sources, I’ve stumbled upon this jewel tonight.

He’s no public persona, nor does he intend to become a celebrity. But he’s part of the US army. I am not sure he even exists for real. It’s not even relevant, what matter is the message that is now publicly available for the world to see.

But one point remains: He’s basically summarizing everything that has ever been said or will be said about China and the Us on every single blog and news sites.

A very insightful analysis of what is happening right now and what is to come in the near future. I sometimes wonder if everybody is using this document as their master source in order to post their “personal” view on the current situation on the different blogs.

It’s not information from or from an indie underground movie available on YouTube. It’s coming straight to you from the academic department of the national defense of the US. And… It got approval for public release.

– US plans to extend their global empire ? Checked
– Economic Warfare ? Checked
– Trade Deficit ? Checked
– Peaceful China’s rise debunked ? Checked
– 2050 China Superpower ? Checked
– US answer to China’s rise ? Checked
– And much more, by reading this, the last 4 years or so of blogging, will bring you memories of comments and “visions” from users.

It’s all there, covered from A to Z.

I GREATLY encourage everybody to read this paper, and to read the references as well.

Extracts and food for thoughts:

“One element of national power that is of critical importance because of the recent explosion in technology and globalization is the economic arm.”

“Whether our nation has a large or small military, our leadership does understand economics, but not necessarily in the same manner the Chinese do as a weapon of warfare. Economics is a great tool to create conditions for further action or to coerce a nation to change its behavior. As the world further embraces globalization, economics as an element of power will only gain greater influence in the United States and around the world.”

“America has at its disposal the elements of national power (diplomatic, information, military, and economic) to support the U.S. National Security Strategy. The use of these elements of national power protects and allows the United States to remain the lone superpower in the world today.

“The National Security Strategy states that economic freedom is “a moral imperative…that also reinforces political freedom. It creates diversified centers of power and authority that ultimately limit the reach of government. It expands the free flow of ideas; with increased trade and foreign investment comes exposure to new ways of thinking and living which give citizens more control over their own lives.”37 In short, the NSS articulates our economy as central to the spread of democracy, also a theme throughout the NSS.”

Enjoy the reading Richard. Although I really expect you will just dismiss it altogether and grace us with another post about Palin.

Richard, your government connections are actually starting to make me worry. Tracing IP’s, your good “friends”, etc etc. 😉

I expect this post to be totally ignored, or at the very best to receive some kind of corrosive answer discrediting me totally. But anyhow, as long I will seed this information in the reader’s mind, even superficially , I’ll be content.

October 24, 2008 @ 2:06 am | Comment

And because I love the addendum concept, here it is:

October 24, 2008 @ 2:16 am | Comment

Bao, I think the reason you often don’t get feedback is because you sometimes flood the threads with comments, often way to long for blog comments, so people begin to just skip over them. Meanwhile, I can’t open that document and both proxies I normally use aren’t working today. Want to send me that article by email?

Si, exactly – anyone doing their research knew where the US was heading about two years ago. Anecdotally, when I learned in 2005 that the home I bought for $71,900 was now valued at $325,000, I knew something was screwy, and that it wouldn’t and couldn’t last forever.

October 24, 2008 @ 9:13 am | Comment

I think you are right, I’m new to this forum thing, so I am still learning the etiquette. I will send you the file by email.

October 24, 2008 @ 10:07 am | Comment


you think that’s crazy? last year i was living in a medium sized town in the uk, about 2 hours from london (in britain house prices are often linked to whether london is commutable from where you live, in this case we would argue my flat was not). my landlord tried to sell in spring 2007 and put a bog standard two bed new build flat with open plan kitchen/living room (built to make the flat feel bigger, but actually means you cannot hear yourself think when the washing amchine is on) on the market for US$300,000. The average wage in the UK is US$46,000 and average household income US$60,000. You have to remember taxes and the cost of living are higher in the uk than the us when looking at those numbers. So my landlord thinks this starter flat is worth 6.5 times average wage or 5 times average household income. bizarrely, people actually came round to look at the flat, though sanity reigned and no-one put in an offer.

the problem is that the housing market is a house of cards and once you price out first time buyers it collapses. this time though it was artifically kept up by easy credit so now the uk is staring at a japanese style recession. i know you think the us has it bad, but actually the uk has copied you guys but on a proportionally much larger scale with nothing to back it up. the us$ is rising, but the pound is falling off the edge of a cliff. it was not long ago that there were us$2 to the pound, today it is $1.58. with an economy based on financial services, property and cheap imports we are pretty much fucked. oh and we cannot spend our way out of this one, as the current government blew all the money during a spending spree in the last 10 years.


October 24, 2008 @ 4:06 pm | Comment

Derivatives, Credit Default Swaps and Risky Investment Instruments – Don’t Play with Fire!

Be careful when you try to lift the burning cauldron. That f…cker’s hot! When I tried tried to lift it, I dropped it on my foot and the other monks heard me scream’n throughout the whole temple. It was embarrassing!

October 24, 2008 @ 9:13 pm | Comment

I got a big laugh out of Greenspan’s testimony before Congress.

When asked whether he might be partly responsible for the current financial meltdown, Greenspan replied:

“Yes…I think that my view of reality that sustained me for 50 years was all wrong.”

October 24, 2008 @ 11:01 pm | Comment

Sorry about your foot, booboo! Meaning?! Some remote pontificator inerpreting it all for us? Thanks so much!

Euro down 25%, gold down 30%, all I can do is sing all the way to the bank.

~~”we’re in the money, we’re in the money”~~

Ahem, now what was the problem again? Constitution shredded, empire in tatters, oceans receding and earth cooling? I lose track sometimes while enjoying the finer things.

October 24, 2008 @ 11:08 pm | Comment

“Sorry about your foot, booboo! Meaning?! Some remote pontificator inerpreting it all for us? Thanks so much!”

It means that our monks, priests, our so-called financial “experts” really f…cked up! They don’t know what they are doing. We’ve been burned….

October 24, 2008 @ 11:34 pm | Comment

Sam, inflation will be controlled and gold will be depressed until after the election. . I will place a bet if you’d like: Over $1,000 an ounce by April 15, 2009, six short months away. Even after Obama wins. Inflation will be the new word of the year. Meanwhile, everything I’ve said about the US economy in December of 2006 has happened. Did you notice? And did you read my comment (or post?) a few weeks ago about how gold will be insanely volatile, with huge drops, and that if anyone traded gold on margin they would be crucified?

You’re such an adorable libertarian.

Something to think about:

The most difficult concept for the professional public to understand is that hyperinflation can exist along with a totally disastrous economic environment. Hyperinflation falls flat because it fails to take into account the infinite velocity of money that a Weimar creates during a depression economy as a product of throwing monetary discipline at the wall.

When you pay people three times a day to keep up with prices, consider the mammoth daily increases in all private and business transactions in terms of the total number of currency units. What happens to the velocity of money? The turnover increases with the rate of inflation until both are hyper creating an unstoppable spiral.

Few understand that monetary inflation proceeds and sustains price inflation. For this reason world business in a rat hole with credit still jammed up will lead to hyperinflation in 2009-2010.

If world business is perceived to have bottomed and credit flows are re-established, this will bring hyperinflation in 24 hours.

We have heard both Russia and China chime in today on their clear perception of the pre-election falsely valued US dollar and government interference in not only gold but energy and food.

The PPT is working overtime on those index spreads but they only have a short time (13 to 88 days) before they have to throw it into what is most likely inexperienced hands.

Yes, a planetary Weimar is on the menu. Russia, the Middle East and China may just be the top survivors. Africa might just come into its own in such a scenario due to the amount of raw material and gold resources they have.

By the way Sam, gold is at 78 at the moment. When I bought it and when I first recommended it, it was at 66.91. Compare that with the market. Don’t you wish you’d listened? 🙂

October 24, 2008 @ 11:36 pm | Comment

Sorry for posting this off-topic (if topic there is on an open thread), but I was compelled to share…

I certainly cannot wag any fingers on this particular issue, but the article did bring a smile…

October 24, 2008 @ 11:49 pm | Comment

Interesting article on Microsoft, thanks. They do have a lot of nerve, but I can understand why they did it. Let’s see whether the government allows them to get away with it.

Sam, you watching gold today? What a circus. It hit the psychological barrier of just under 70 and then, wham, it just reversed upward. I would say this is your window to get in at an considerable discount.

October 25, 2008 @ 12:00 am | Comment

Some more puzzle pieces…

In my opinion, the US factory base will probably move to India very soon (I have no idea why people are even losing time considering Vietnam in their analysis).

The US is now closing the money tap in China and going to the next exploitation market (China’s next move is to develop their high tech sectors, being done with the cheap labor approach, currently cleaning the Delta of the low cost factories to replace them with IT companies). The US move right now might potentially be to force China to spend internally their US assets. As previously stated, this money is already spent, on the bonds.

It’s not cash stacked under their mattresses. It’s indirectly an investment in the US economy itself.

“The basic argument they are making is that, because China has the one-child policy, India, which has a much different age profile and a faster growth rate, will therefore have cheaper labor over the foreseeable future.”

“The question then is, where do we move (US)? My personal view is that the most plausible option for the United States is to try to develop some kind of U.S.-Japanese-Indian combination. I wouldn’t call it an alliance, because I don’t think India will join an alliance, but I think there will be some kind of cooperation between those three.”

This is June 2008…

Now fast forward to October 2008…

The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal

“Proponents of the agreement argue it will bring India closer to the United States at a time when the two countries are forging a strategic relationship to pursue common interests in fighting terrorism, spreading democracy, and preventing the domination of Asia by a single power.”

I wonder which superpower they are referring to…

What role does China play in the U.S.-Indian nuclear deal?

“It is a motivating factor in the deal, some experts say. China’s rise in the region is prompting the United States to seek a strategic relationship with India. “The United States is trying to cement its relationship with the world’s largest democracy in order to counterbalance China,” CFR’s Ferguson says. The Bush administration is “hoping that latching onto India as the rising star of Asia could help them handle China,” Sokolski says.”

Tic toc, tic toc, tic toc…

October 25, 2008 @ 12:35 am | Comment

Done, Richard. $1,000 per ounce or I win $1,000 from you, by April 15th. This is an easy bet for me. If you take the bet, I merely hedge by buying equivalent amount of gold. I’ve made quite a bit by being short, so I can afford it.

Done, here publicly, or not?

October 25, 2008 @ 12:37 am | Comment

“The US move right now might potentially be to force China to spend internally their US assets. As previously stated, this money is already spent, on the bonds.”

I forgot to add: This would free the US from the potential threat that such Chinese holding could have in times of conflicts.

October 25, 2008 @ 12:38 am | Comment

Caveat: Gold has a remarkable correlation with oil price. It takes money to buy oil, and the main buyers seem a bit pinched. If your prediction of a deep, long recession comes to pass, will “oil and gold” go up or down? Are you predicting a long deep recession, or not?

October 25, 2008 @ 12:40 am | Comment

The bet is on: $1,000 per ounce, or I win $1,000 (that’s real American dollars, folks) by April 15.

6 Months to go, anything can happen!

October 25, 2008 @ 12:44 am | Comment

Here’s the thing, Sam. Gold is not a commodity like oil or like industry metals (silver is more of an industry metal). From the site I quoted from in my last comment:

Gold is a currency.

Paper currency insures nothing.

Gold is insurance.

Gold is not a commodity.


The shorts in gold shares will get what they deserve – financial decimation.

I couldn’t bear crushing you so easily. Let’s make the bet for a dinner at the restaurant of the winner’s choice.

October 25, 2008 @ 12:45 am | Comment

Don’t you wish you’d listened?

I DID buy gold. At $200-something. In the 1970’s. I sold in the $650 range, so many years ago that disposable diapers weren’t invented. If I’d held it all this time, my return would be maybe 1%. 25 years of that sucky return? No thanks, glad I went elsewhere. The return on gold for the last 20 years is pathetic. And people who shill for gold or any other investment deserve the responsibility of the losses incurred. I say this as an ex-advisor who’s needed to meet responsibilities. What are you saying to the people who bought at $900 as you recommended? What will you say when it’s $500. Are you ready for the lawsuites?

October 25, 2008 @ 12:55 am | Comment

LOL @ the Microsoft thing. Well, the way I see it, if they pirate then they have no right to complain. If you don’t want microsoft to hijack your hardware the only way out is free software, such as, GNU/Linux…

Screw microsoft that way, it’s much safer. Why would you use pirate softwares that’s crawling with cracker backdoors. It’s just insanely stupid. Everything you can do with Windows you can do with GNU/Linux. Everything rocks in GNU/Linux. If you get confused by GNU/Linux it’s only because you are dumb. You don’t want to be dumb right? Then use GNU/Linux. To download softwares in GNULinux all you have to do is use a package manager. It manages the installation of all your softwares. It’s much better than downloading and installing softwares on windows (even if it’s automated, you still have to install it). On GNU/Linux it’s all auto, it’s all magic!


It’s a known fact that the elites wants to merge with the machines… the so called trans-humanist movement. That’s what you SHOULD BE WORRYING about…

October 25, 2008 @ 12:56 am | Comment

“In China’s case, its rapidly increasing foreign exchange reserve will incur substantial losses if the US dollar continues to weaken.”

“About two thirds of the reserve is dominated by the US dollar. As the dollar goes down, China will suffer great financial losses.”

“If the so-called US dollar crisis happens, China will suffer further loss. ”

“Due to high expectations of US treasury bonds, international investors used to eagerly purchase the bonds, which leads to bubbles in US treasury bond transactions. If the bubble bursts, China will suffer serious losses.”

This was 2004…

this article spells the truth, no idea why it’s still online since we see the current headlines: China will avoid the crisis, bla bla bla. I expect this article to go down very soon.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:00 am | Comment

I might back off the dollar amount, considering all the exposure, but believe me, there’s going to be lobster and caviar involved!

Gold is done. $1,000 was the top. Until the economy, liquidity, and oil start going up again, believe me, gold is going nowhere. I mean, under $700 and falling…….what does it take to show you a trend?

Don’t listen to me….the trend is your friend. Watch what’s ACTUALLY happening.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:04 am | Comment

Jesus Christ people are sleeping, it’s incredible…

The conclusion:

October 25, 2008 @ 1:06 am | Comment

This time, the “crisis” is being used to further the US economic position, long-term position, particularly with regard to China. From Sun Tzu: “All warfare is based on deception.” — Business Mirror

October 25, 2008 @ 1:08 am | Comment

It’s a deal, Sam.

Bao, China WILL suffer big financial losses. It will just have a lot less impact on them than it will have on the West. But thanks for the link. Interesting graf:

China’s dollar holdings are worth much less when buying goods like oil and metals that China depends on for its development and growth. Further, China has been talking and trying for some time to diversify its foreign-reserve holdings from dollars to other currencies and gold. Now, their dollars are worth much less when buying gold, yen and euros.


October 25, 2008 @ 1:23 am | Comment

“Well, the way I see it, if they pirate then they have no right to complain.”

That’s the way I saw it, too. It’s right up there with a rapist seeking damages because ‘the bitch gave me herpes’…

October 25, 2008 @ 1:28 am | Comment

Deal. Cool: We got a benchmark.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:28 am | Comment

But why does it seem that NOBODY (at least here) is willing to pay attention even 2 seconds on the larger scheme that’s going on right now ?

Why everybody is only focusing on their direct losses, the price of this and that, what Joe six pack said, what is the color of Palin’s hairs, etc… It’s depressing.

Is it that people are just finding some comfort into these subjects, making them feel more safe in subjects they can understand ? Refusing to envision a larger concept ?

I am still waiting for your take on this issue. I understand that it might have some implication linked to your current social status. It’s the same for me, I would not dare to go publicly with such statements, not now at least.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:32 am | Comment

If anyone else wants to follow this, we gotta nice live chart at

I think the default chart is based on hourly prices, but you can chage to “daily” time period. Looks a little suspicious, and like we might have a big cooling beginning.


October 25, 2008 @ 1:34 am | Comment

Thank you Sam_S you are proving my previous point…

October 25, 2008 @ 1:35 am | Comment

Eh? Meaning what? I’m still open for more bets.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:45 am | Comment

The thing is: This information and knowledge has a direct influence on you life. It can help you determine what is your next move, your next step, etc. it should not be under estimated.

I know this saying won’t reach many people, but still: Pay attention to the global picture, and you won’t end up posting on blogs about your losses.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:47 am | Comment

Meaning nothing Sam, noting important for you. Go back to sleep now. I will also.

October 25, 2008 @ 1:53 am | Comment

“It will just have a lot less impact on them than it will have on the West.”

You clearly did not take the time to read and analyze in detail the documentation I’ve sent you. Open your eyes for god’s sake, and connect the dots once and for all.

October 25, 2008 @ 2:07 am | Comment

I am interested in what you actually experienced Richard, from your work or communications with others living in China?

October 25, 2008 @ 4:00 am | Comment

Richard, I want in the bet too. Next year we will be talking about deflation in the US. In the next few years gold live every other asset is going down. The only thing which is going to go up in value is the US dollar because of all the deleveraging. All the money the Fed and Treasury are printing is only going to replace a fraction of the money being taken out from the economy by the banks (and other financial institutions) due to deleveraging.

Here is what I wrote a while ago:

October 25, 2008 @ 7:14 am | Comment

MT, here’s the thing, if you look above: Gold is not a commodity, like coffee and iron and oil, which may become depressed if we have a deflation. Gold is insurance that people move their money to when everything else is in the shitter. It’s price has been erratic lately and as I said to Sam above, I warned that it would be an insane roller coaster that was not for the weak – huge crashes and then soaring comebacks, but long term the most sound investment considering the chaos in world markets and the fact it’s going to get much, much worse. The best is not about whether there will be deflation or infltion, but whether the price of gold will rise. If that’s the bet you want to enter, you’re on – all three of us will have dinners together.

Just to repeat the terms, as stated by Sam: The bet is on: $1,000 per ounce, or I win $1,000 (that’s real American dollars, folks) by April 15. So if gold hits $1K before April 15 I win. I admit, I lost a similar bet last year when the bet was for a 10 =-percent increase in the price of gold. It rose about 7 percent on the date the bet was due, but then only two months later it was up more than 20 percent. That’s how volatile it can be. Definitely not for the weak.

October 25, 2008 @ 9:51 am | Comment

I am interested in what you actually experienced Richard, from your work or communications with others living in China?

That is a very big question, FatBrick. I’m not ready to go into the details on my blog of my actual experiences here, but a lot of glimpses into my communications with people in China can be found in my posts.

October 25, 2008 @ 9:54 am | Comment

I’m just a stupid big-nose with regard to financial issues, so pardon me.

But isn’t the current situation thus:? Due to deleveraging (banks making a much lower volumn of loans) money is being pulling out of the system which is driving down stock and commodity prices, etc. Meanwhile, a vast amount of money is being pumped into the system by Paulson, Bernanke, and other foreign governments. Thus, wouldn’t one expect that when prices bottom out (particularly real estate prices), then there’ll be a tidal wave of money flushing back into the system resulting in hyperinflation? Is this analysis correct?

What worries me is that if you have such hyperinflation, particularly in the price of oil, then, basically, it means that the US goes to War. War becomes imperative to get the oil, etc. You’ll have to go to war because the Muslims will be sitting atop all that valuable oil, which your economy needs to survive, right? Also, if you crash the US dollar via hyperinflation, then you’ve f…cked the world economy, which is the metaphorical TIT upon which China suckles to grow strong. “Although I’m not really “A TIT Man” myself, you gotta love those TITs!”

October 25, 2008 @ 11:55 am | Comment

Buck, go here for a snapshot discussion about how we can have looming deflation followed by hyperinflation. Both sides are argued – MT’s and mine. Good comments, too. Then look at some of the “Related Videos” to the right. Meanwhile, all we can do is speculate. Just remember, Jim Rogers and I are usually right.

October 25, 2008 @ 2:19 pm | Comment

“The international community is waking up to watch another dimension of globalization: the lethal domino effect. When the greatest economy goes down, the international economic system follows.”

“But strategic analysts cannot avoid asking the following questions: Was the crisis system-induced or was it provoked or at least helped to spread?”

So funny to see that it’s becoming a reality… The more I dig, the more I find. The next months will be very interesting to watch as people switch from a cold and rational approach when they analyze what’s happening to: What is REALLY happening right now. I expect mass panic around the globe once this reality sets in.

October 25, 2008 @ 2:49 pm | Comment

It’s been a while… and bud is no longer american… sigh

October 25, 2008 @ 3:18 pm | Comment

Some more information for those that still think that all this is just tin foil hat material. The following document was produced by International Security Advisory Board (ISAB).

You won’t find this report on the official US gov site since it was created by a special task force.

Again, this is not material or David Icke stuff (although it’s clear to me now that they probably use these sources to create their material as well). It’s directly coming from and funded from the US government.

This is the actual complete version of the report. You can find a condensed version here:

I discovered this site today, and it’s a gold mine for whoever like me enjoy wasting time “connecting the dots”. A lot of the compiled information in this site permeates the news on a daily basis in different forms.

For anybody with an in interest in Geo-politic, I highly recommend it.

Some very interesting excerpts:

“The communist leadership in Beijing seeks three primary and interrelated goals: (1) regime survival; (2) dominance in the Asia/Pacific region, together with growing influence on a global level; and (3) prevention of Taiwan’s de jure independence. These goals shape its views of, and policies toward, the United States.”

“The United States is viewed as China’s principal strategic adversary and as a potential challenge to the regime’s legitimacy, specifically with regard to Taiwan. At the same time, managing a positive relationship with the United States at least for the short to medium term is desirable to achieve other national objectives, most importantly sustained economic development. China views the United States as its most significant trading partner, and sees that trade as essential to China’s continued economic growth.”

Basically, to sum it up, the US – China relationship is one of the most twisted and hypocritical in the entire modern history.

I’m pretty much done analyzing the US side of the story for now. From now on I’ll switch my focus to the “other” side: Russia – China – And South America

I expect these researches to complete the big picture somehow, I’ve already seen glimpse of it, and so far it’s confirming what I was already suspecting.

October 25, 2008 @ 10:36 pm | Comment

“Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese central banking at Northwestern University, said that when he visited the People’s Bank of China for a series of meetings this summer, he was surprised by how many officials resented the institution’s losses [on dollar assets].”

“He said the officials blamed the United States and believed the controversial assertions set forth in the book “Currency War,” a Chinese best seller published a year ago. The book suggests that the United States deliberately lured China into buying its securities knowing that they would later plunge in value.”

The United States DELIBERATElY lured China into buying its securities knowing that they would later plunge in value.

I’ve said it a short while ago… More and more you will see this information surface. Amazing.. Just, amazing…

So please stop wondering about your freaking mortgage or the value of gold, since you are clever people, start focusing on the real issues.

October 25, 2008 @ 11:18 pm | Comment

“For the record, I think Pomfret’s view is way too bleak. China has what it takes to deal with the situation: Money.”

Yeah, US money… So what does that mean you think Richard ?

October 26, 2008 @ 12:35 am | Comment

Bao, you are a strange guy. Have you noticed you’re ignored by everybody? There’s a reason for that. Go straight up this thread and see. Every one of your comments is ignored, because it seems like you’re waving your arms around asking for attention. Your lucky I am a generous and magnanimous host.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:39 am | Comment

And what is the reason ? I’d like to hear it from you.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:43 am | Comment

Send me an email if you want to discuss it, please. Before you do that, look over the threads and see how your comments are received. Look at the comments by others that actually do get responses and then ask yourself what the difference is. If after that you haven’t figured it out and need some coaching on how to communicate in blog comments, we can discuss it offline. Thanks.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:51 am | Comment

I am not waving my harms to draw attention on me. I am waving my harms to bring attention to serious and complex issues.

In my opinion, much more serious than what you are mentioning on a daily basis.

Do not expect me to troll your forum for years to come (I’ll continue reading it, it’s a great blog). This won’t happen. It’s a very short outburst to seed some information, and no harm intended, even if I am perceived as a wacko and immature poster.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:51 am | Comment

Bao, I don’t mind your commenting. But you can’t demand that I or anyone else pay attention to you. You have to earn the respect that makes others willing to take you seriously. I usually don’t click the links you put up and I suspect neither do others, because you put up too many too quickly and it looks a little weird. Just some friendly advice

October 26, 2008 @ 12:54 am | Comment

You have a good point, but anyhow, I think you are probably the only person here with whom I’m interested to discuss with. So I guess we could continue this exchange by email, it could be informative. If of course you have any interest in doing so. I am not here to annoy people, and I apologize for doing so.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:54 am | Comment

Since this is an “Open Thread”: Does the US have a “Shadow Government”?
How could the events of the last 8 years (9/11, wars, financial meltdown, creation of a surveillance state, etc.) further the objectives of such a “Shadow Government”?

A shadow government is a “government-in-waiting” that remains in waiting with the intention of taking control of a government in response to some event.

Conspiracy theorists define shadow government as a secret government within the government. This secret government is the “real” government that controls the known government’s basic course. The members’ identities and meeting-halls of the secret shadow government are known by only a select few. This secret government is often portrayed as corrupt and having connections to the CIA, Illuminati, and Freemasons.

October 26, 2008 @ 10:37 am | Comment

Bill Moyers speaks on The Secret Government:

October 26, 2008 @ 10:43 am | Comment


The Command and General Staff College is a year long course for all military officers who wish to rise above the rank of Captain. In the course of that year, all students are required to write what is in essence a thesis. You have seized upon one such thesis and presented it as evidence of U.S. strategy towards China. It is a term paper, in essence, stating the author’s position on a particular subject touching upon operational art or strategy. It is not necessarily a statement of current U.S. military doctrine or strategy. The fact that its author is a military officer does not make it official. It may surprise you to learn that in most U.S. military officers professional schools, students are taught to think “outside the box”. My impression is that you don’t quite understand what is implied in that term, but your research efforts are certainly worthy of respect.

October 26, 2008 @ 11:45 am | Comment

Actually, even open Chinese sources are replete with Chinese government references to the need for China to be able to engage in broad spectrum warfare against “the enemy” (the United States of America), including financial warfare.

If you want to understand the Chinese just pick up any book that provides a broad overview of Chinese history. The themes of Chinese history are feudalism, and warfare.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:01 pm | Comment

What was it that ‘ole Sun Zi said about spies? Didn’t he say that there a 4 kinds of spies? How do “foreigners” become instruments of China?

October 26, 2008 @ 12:20 pm | Comment

So after all, people do read my comments… 😉


I understand of course that this is a thesis, my point in exposing it, is just to demonstrate that such concepts do exist and travel inside the US army, at different levels. It covers such a wide range of “tin foil hat” material, that I thought it was interesting to show some sources outside of the normal context for example. The more I research all this and the more I understand actually where Zeitgeist, End game, etc comes from. I do it by interest and not to push any wacko agenda. I am actually curious to see where it comes from.

It is not meant to prove that it’s the current US grand plan. On the other side, if you have time, you could read the PDF version (or buy the book) I posted about Unrestricted Warfare, by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. It’s a book on military strategy written in 1999 by two colonels in the People’s Liberation Army.

And it’s is not a thesis.

October 26, 2008 @ 12:37 pm | Comment


Also, the information I am exposing here for people to research (if they have any interest in doing so) is also posted in a chronological order.

If you look at a post coming later after I posted the thesis, you will find the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) report. Which is basically all the previous information contained in the Thesis, but this time coming from and endorsed by the US government.


It’s not 4 it’s 5 actually:

Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes: (1) Local spies; (2) inward spies; (3) converted spies; (4) doomed spies; (5) surviving spies.

In order for people to understand why I am posting all this, it’s because of the major events happening in our world currently, mainly the economic crisis and the rise of China. By digging behind the scene, I think it’s easy to find out that the ramifications are way beyond what it looks at first glance. It’s actually fascinating to discover all this web of interlinked events and strategies.

And my thinking is that more and more this will be exposed in the future and people will start to understand which forces are at play right now. I think it’s already starting to pick up in the mainstream.

I refuse to simply accept the indie movies as “proof” of anything, hence why I am tracing back the origins of this media trend. And also, I’ve read on this blog a lot of very insightful and educated comments about what is happening right now at the first level, so I was curious to see how people would handle and analyze the other deeper levels of information.

Usually this kind of information ends up only on obscurantist sites, but because what is happening right now is so big, it’s not even possible to hide it anymore or relegate it in the tin foil hat domain.

October 26, 2008 @ 1:07 pm | Comment

Chinese culture is basically feudal, dominant-submissive. China is dependent upon nationalism and corruption as a means of control, what the Chinese refer to as “zheng quan duo li”. Foreign businessmen and some foreign academics are happy to fall into line provided that they’re rewarded with attention/status, money and young Chinese girls (the authoritarian model). It all becomes unstable when the economy falters and they lose the ability to give out candy to the ghosts and goblins.

October 26, 2008 @ 1:45 pm | Comment


An excerpt from the ISAB report that supports your point and show their stance toward their military development:

“II. China’s Strategic Motivations

China’s military modernization is inspired in part by growing nationalism and pride, by the goal of checkmating U.S. military power while expanding its own presence and capabilities in Asia and the Pacific, by its increasing international commerce, and by Beijing’s desire to be perceived as a serious player on the world scene.

Chinese leaders believe that China has been humiliated in the past by Korea and Japan, and more recently by the United States over Taiwan. They probably believe that, with rising nationalism underway, any similar humiliation in the future would be a threat to the regime from within.”

There is no such thing as a “peaceful rising”, it’s almost an oxymoron.

October 26, 2008 @ 1:56 pm | Comment


I agree with you that gold is not a commodity. It is more like a painting in that its value is solely based on how other people value it, because there is no inherent use or return for gold.

I think the value of gold would depend on inflation. If you think we are going to have heavy inflation in the future, then it makes sense to hold on to gold, because dollars are becoming worthless. This would be especially true if interest rates are lower than inflation, which would mean the real return on dollars are negative. But if you think we will have deflation, why would anyone hold gold. You can keep money in the bank and make a return while gold has no return. So, the future demand for gold as a store of value (ie, as money) depends on whether there is high inflation.

About the bet. If you are willing to wager $1000 on gold price being $1000 by Apr 15th, when gold currently trades at 750 or so, that is an easy bet to take. Here is how I can always make money. I buy a gold call option contract for 10 ounces with a strike price of $800 and expiry date of Apr15th. It would cost me about $600 currently. If gold remains below $800, my profit is $400 ($1000 from you – $600 cost of option). If gold is between $800 and $1000 I make more than $400 because the option makes me some money. If gold is above $1000, my profit is at least $400 ($200*10 from the option – $1000 I have to give you – $600 which is the cost of the option). That way in all cases I can make at least $400. The only risk is the counterparty risk (which is you not honoring the bet, No offense, I am bringing this up just for analysis. Many of the banks on Wallstreet got into trouble for not taking counterparty risk seriously when writing contracts).

Anyway let us just make the bet for dinner. It is way more pleasant to collect. Btw, I live in NY so it might be a little harder to settle.

Btw, How do I put something in italics when I comment?

October 26, 2008 @ 3:27 pm | Comment

[The Absurdity of the World, Part I]

“I’ve got some good news and some bad news?”

“What’s the bad news?”

“The bad news is that China considers the US to be its enemy, and you’re an American.”

“Oh no…that’s terrible news. What’s the good news?”

“The good news is that in order to win you over China is going to give you attention, money and sex.”


“I’ve got some good news and some bad news.”

“What’s the good news?”

“The good news is that although China views the US as its enemy the US is going to protect you by thwarting China.”

“That’s great news. I’m glad that my government is doing all that it can to protect me. What’s the bad news?”

“The bad news is that in order to thwart China it’s going to destroy your future by eroding your savings via the financial meltdown and creating hyperinflation and high levels of unemployment.”

October 26, 2008 @ 4:38 pm | Comment


What did ‘Ole Sun Zi say about the 5 classes of spies? Thanks.

I always thought that the best spy would be a total nincumpoop who didn’t even know that he was a spy. Basically, a Homer Simpson who blabs everything about the Springfield nuclear power plant in exchange for a few donuts. In China, such a person would have to be completely ignorant of China, in general, and the Chinese language, in particular.

October 26, 2008 @ 6:15 pm | Comment

MT, we’ll see. There are two schools of thought on both topics – whether gold is a currency or a commodity, and whether we will see inflation or deflation. For the latter, I think we’ll see deflation first, followed by inflation that is far more serious. And still, I expect gold to go up even during the inflation phase. But who knows? The dinner bet stands. I never offered to do a bet for $1,000 – that was Sam’s idea, which he quickly rescinded.

October 26, 2008 @ 7:37 pm | Comment


I guess any people doing business would have a copy of it somewhere. It’s too long to post here.

You can find it online:


If you are indeed referring to me in your previous comment, then I’d like to further your thought.

1. The nincumpoop would have to be American.
2. Find his “sensitive” information somewhere else than on the Internet and the online news, where it’s available for the world to see.

October 26, 2008 @ 7:42 pm | Comment

An article in The Times discusses some more charming aspects of that bigoted fundamentist bible-bashing psychotic zealot who still stands a mathematical chance of becoming POTUS:

“But Howard Bess swears such a list did exist, and that his book was on it. “Sarah Palin entered politics in the middle of a fierce culture war here in the valley,” he says. At the heart of it was abortion – she is said to have picketed a hospital that carried out terminations. Gun control was an issue too: she campaigned for the right of gun-owners to carry concealed weapons. “Sarah Palin’s world is divided into the whitest of white and blackest of black. If she thinks she is right about something, she will wage all-out war, and her history shows she is always at war with someone,” says Bess. “Her mental structure is little different than that of an Islamic fundamentalist. The churches she attends are understood by some to have an apocalyptic view of the future, and believe she will be the leader of a new world order when Jesus returns.”
The Wasilla Assembly of God Pentecostal church, which Palin attended for nearly 20 years and where worshippers “speak in tongues” when overcome by the Holy Spirit, has become particularly sensitive to media scrutiny since the appearance of a three-year-old video showing Palin being blessed there against the evils of witchcraft. Its senior pastor, Ed Kalnins, tells me he has been instructed not to talk to the press until after the presidential election, and warns me not to talk to any members of the congregation about Palin. On my way out of the church, I notice a leaflet promising “Deliverance from PMS”, explaining how premenstrual problems are the work of Satan.

While happy to talk about the Alaskan psyche, pastor Larry Kroon of the Wasilla Bible Church, which Palin now attends with her family, also refused to discuss her beliefs. But some of them are a matter of record. She has campaigned for creationism to be taught alongside evolution in schools. She has also said she does not believe global warming is man-made or driven by pollution. She supports drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and has sued the federal government to block a listing of polar bears as an endangered species. She also allows big-game hunters in Alaska to shoot wolves and bears from low-flying planes.
“Some people may try to demonise Sarah Palin, and that is unfair. She is a true believer.””

A believer in what? Her own cartoon-like version of Christianity? I’m starting to feel an overwhelming compulsion to spew when I see her face. Next time you see your children, tell them that you love them. Cos if this lady ends up running the country, she’s gonna make George Bush look like a statesman.

October 26, 2008 @ 7:51 pm | Comment

Did you read what she said about fruit-fly research? Go here now. Literally unbelievable. she must never get anywhere the White House.

October 26, 2008 @ 8:00 pm | Comment

I say without the slightest hint of exaggeration, that woman is a national fucking disgrace, and it’s a sad comment on the US political system that she could make it as far as she has.
A decade or so ago we had a similarly stupid populist right whinger in Aus called Pauline Hanson (see who was known mainly for her immortal line in her maiden parliamentary speech “I believe we are in danger of being swamped by Asians.” She didn’t get anywhere near the top job, thank god, (she would have had nowhere near the nous to survive the party maching politics in Aus anyway) and now she is considered a distastefully curious political fossil. I hope that Palin will go the same way….she should do….but you these are strange days.

October 26, 2008 @ 8:12 pm | Comment


“If you are indeed referring to me in your previous comment,…”

No, I wasn’t refering to you, or anyone else, in particular.

October 26, 2008 @ 8:19 pm | Comment

Speaking of conspiracy theories, remember the episode of “The X-Files” where Skully and Mulder are in the hotel room. The lights are off. Both are BUCK naked except that each are carrying flashlights. Skully shines her flashlight on Mulder’s “Thang”.

Skully: “My God, Mulder it’s HUGE!”

Mulder: “Yes, Skully, it wasn’t like that a minute ago. It’s a mystery wrapped inside a riddle, wrapped inside an enigma. Quick…DO IT…before the Worm Hole closes!”

[Skully then goes down on Mulder.]

I always loved the X-Files.

October 26, 2008 @ 8:28 pm | Comment


It sounded from how you worded the previous comment that you were offering $1000 bet. I guess I misread it. So the bet in on for dinner.

Btw, how can I put stuff in italics in a comment?

October 26, 2008 @ 10:04 pm | Comment

for italics use the <> and <> keys before and after the text you want to italicize. Inside the <> before the text, type an “i” and inside the <> at the end type “/i”. Don’t type in the quote marks.

October 27, 2008 @ 12:28 am | Comment

I also didn’t know that. Thanks a lot, Richard!

October 27, 2008 @ 1:13 am | Comment

I dont understand why America elite liberals hate Palin so much. Yes she’s not very sophisticate nor elaborate, she’s perhaps deeply religious. But she has street smarts, she speaks her mind, and she’s really a good person. That “heartbeat away from president” argument doesnt hold water either, who would be more likely not able to finish the presidency? a 72 yr old extremely rich white guy or a black president? my bet is the latter one. And then you have that old fool in Biden! Absolutely horrifying ……

October 27, 2008 @ 2:57 am | Comment

This is starting to be really scary. I just came back from a dinner, where my friend at one point told me about his “doubts” about his GF from the last 2 years.

Maybe I should just quit on these issues. It’s seriously taking shape into an Hollywood movie now. And I never asked for that. At one point during the discussion, we switched to another language,and he looked at me, very serious, and told me: Be careful, be very careful, don’t speak openly about these issues in China.

More to come about Gold: Buffet, Silver, Next treasury chief, connect the dots you sleepers. Google is your friend.

Bao’s out. For tonight.

October 27, 2008 @ 3:04 am | Comment

Coldblooded, it’s not only “elites” who “hate” Palin. It’s across the board and includes all classes. She was the kiss of death. Its not hate at all -it’s the fact she is a fundamentalist, anti-science, inarticulate birdbrain. No one with any brains at all is comfortable with her and her witchdoctor leading the free world.

October 27, 2008 @ 8:44 am | Comment


October 27, 2008 @ 10:21 am | Comment

“This is starting to be really scary. I just came back from a dinner, where my friend at one point told me about his “doubts” about his GF from the last 2 years.”

Given the level of corruption in Chinese society and the fact that many Chinese teachers/parents teach the young to be dishonest, it would be surprising if there weren’t lucrative opportunities for the girlfriends of some target foreigners to sell information about such target foreigners.

October 27, 2008 @ 11:07 am | Comment


Let me get this straight: the globalists elites would sacrifice the United States, in terms the economic melt-down, in order to carry out this financial attack against China?

That’s sound far fetched, but certainly possible. There is a definite real possibility that the elites have planned to reduce America, to de-industrialized the U.S since the 70’s. THe current situation is the latest in a series of steps towards one world government. So perhaps you are right. However, I’ve also heard that the elites wants to prop up China, for the Chinese style system is well suited in their twisted ideals for this new world order. So they say. But I really how the Chinese government can be so ideal for them. For in terms of efficiency they can get a lot further with a totalitarian western government. The only thing holding them back of course is the people themselves, for they would never support it. Hence their plans to destabilize the U.S.? It all seems so far-fetched. Would they really do a sacrifice pawn move like that? Who knows… The elites are crazy.

October 27, 2008 @ 11:25 am | Comment

Who are the elites?

October 27, 2008 @ 11:53 am | Comment

lirelou wrote: “The fact that its author is a military officer does not make it official. It may surprise you to learn that in most U.S. military officers professional schools, students are taught to think “outside the box”. My impression is that you don’t quite understand what is implied in that term, but your research efforts are certainly worthy of respect.”

“Think outside the box”—this was one of Rumsfeld’s pet slogans.

October 27, 2008 @ 2:15 pm | Comment


The fingers are pointed mainly at the Bilderberg Group. I think there is probably ans East Asian equivalent of this group, but I don’t know about it.

As for the conflicting geo politic events and the NWO agenda, I think it all make sense when you start envisioning the possibility that the first level is used to push the higher goals and objectives. The mass focus on the wars, the economy, through different masquerade events, while the globalization goes on.

So basically, maybe there is only one level, and the world just goes on as usual, with the black and white sides fighting each others. Or maybe they are all hand in hand playing the same game, while making us believe that it’s not the case.

Now we are starting to hear about a world trade currency in the news, and it’s been the subject of serious talks in the recent past.

Also, some rumors state that the reason why Buffet is buying so much Silver and pushing the market is because we might see in the near future another episode of Gold Nationalization by the next president.

October 27, 2008 @ 2:59 pm | Comment

Let the Palin-bashing continue, I say.

“Alaska’s top newspaper today endorsed Democrat Barack Obama for the White House, saying it would be too risky to put their Republican state governor Sarah Palin just “one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world”.

The Anchorage Daily News, the leading daily in the overwhelmingly Republican state, called Palin’s vice-presidential nomination “an improbable and highly memorable event” and added that “many Alaskans are proud to see their governor, and their state, so prominent on the national stage”.

Nevertheless, the newspaper editorial deemed her not yet ready to serve in the White House, and saying the hometown boosterism “does not overwhelm all other judgment”.

The paper was even more scathing in its assessment of the top of the Republican ticket.

“Our sober view is that her running mate, Senator John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation,” the daily wrote.
“Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office,” the Anchorage Daily News said”

Cast her away, and let her never been seen in this space again. A sports show on Fox is an approriate medium for her folksy charm, photogenic appearance, and love of sports.

October 27, 2008 @ 3:21 pm | Comment

Man, it just gets more surreal. Who could have made a better choice of potential VP, even with the freakshow at the far religious right of the party? How about this guy?

“SOMEWHERE in Minnesota, ya sure, you betcha Tim Pawlenty’s shaking his head.

The amiable, respected Governor – a “salt-of-the-earth guy”, according to John McCain’s closest adviser, Mark Salter – was certain to be running for vice-president until yet another of thecatastrophic tactical blunders that have come to define, and willprobably bury, the McCain campaign.

McCain’s chief strategist, Steve Schmidt, might have a hard time finding work after this race given his woeful inability to sell his man – and this ticket – to the punters. Schmidt’s choice over Pawlenty, Sarah Palin, was, in American football parlance, a risky long throw for a touchdown from a team that panicked because it was losing ground, even though the game at the time was far from over.

With less than two weeks to go, the game now looks out of reach.

Pawlenty, according to insiders, feels betrayed by McCain, a man whose presidential aspirations Pawlenty championed even when the Arizona senator was on the nose with most Republicans and running out of money. In other words, at a time last year when Pawlenty had nothing to gain in sticking by McCain. Other than he believed in the man.

In this campaign obsessed with “narratives”, Pawlenty – whose star may burn bright in the 2012 presidential race – had a story totell.

He and his four siblings were raised by their father, a milk-truck driver, after their mother had died of cancer. He came up the hard way, became a lawyer, progressed through local politics and made it to the Governor’s mansion. For good measure, in a left-leaning state – Barack Obama has a 19point lead in the latest polls in Minnesota – this Joe-the-Governor Republican was re-elected in 2006 with an increased margin.

Raised Roman Catholic, he married an evangelical Christian and converted. There is no doubt his religious faith would have seen Pawlenty connect to the Republican conservative base, which still views Senator McCain with suspicion, without alienating independents, who could easily have embraced his moderate centre-right political views.

Instead, McCain was persuaded to gamble on an untested-if-attractive unknown from Alaska and, if the polls are to be believed, he bet on the wrong governor”,25197,24555050-5013948,00.html

October 27, 2008 @ 4:16 pm | Comment

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