“When will Taiwan attack China?”

No, I’m not asking that question. Rather, it’s my good friend Lau Guan kim in another over-the-top commentary in China Daily. (Lau, if you remember, is the one who refers to me as “the sloppy baker” and condemned my calling this site The Peking Duck.)

His argument is that Taiwan wants to precipitate a crisis by declaring its independence, which will cause China to attack and thus force the US to come to its (Taiwan’s) defense. Could it be that simple, and would they have the balls to roll the dice like that when the stakes are so enormous? Lau thinks so.

When will Taiwan attack China?

When it declares its independent. So the Taidu are smart. They want Taiwan to be the 51st state of the USA so China would not dare attack. For the hawks in the US, this is a bonanza, as Taiwan can be another US unsinkable aircraft carrier like Japan.

This time it is better, for it is much nearer to China.

For China, if Taiwan becomes an American state, its national security is threatened. I think the Americans never forget the Korean War (1950-1953).

The Americans will know the Taiwanese are trying to dupe them. American interest precludes intervention in the Strait. Posturing is their way of showing the American colours and keeping up with America’s image as a superpower. This is less costly, and Americans will never end up in body bags.

All indications are that China will attack if Taiwan attacks first or declares independence. Then the Taiwanese ploy is to cry foul, and America the “lao da ge,” will have to save face by fishing in the muddied Strait.

After that Taiwan hopes to sit behind and watch America do the dirty work for them.

The Americans will have to ask themselves are they sentimental suckers?

Well, in all honesty, sometimes we Americans are sentimental suckers. We were suckered into the Iraq war on the sentrimental notion that we could easily establish a beacon of democracy amid our enemies, and be welcomed with flowers as we approached.

But I can’t imagine we’d allow Taiwan to wag us around like that, which is why bush gave Chen his strongly worded admonition not long ago to stop rocking the boat. If we feel he is heading into a reckless confrontation with the express purpose of dragging us in to save his ass and fight the war for him, I want to think the State Department would realize what he was up to and tell him we can’t let Taiwan manioulate us into a war that will surely be devastating. Or am I wrong….?

The Discussion: 10 Comments

I think the idea floated in the article that Taiwan might attack China is completely ridiculous. This would easily allow the US to ignore Taiwan because they are “the aggressor.” Even if the US does intervene, any scenario where the Chinese attack is dangerous for Taiwan, making it extremely unlikely that they would intentionally provoke the Chinese.

In fact, the entire article is ridiculous and contradictory at several points. Lau Guan claims Taiwan will attempt to attack China, as it has threatened, but later claims that the threats are empty. According to him, the United States has imperial ambitions toward Taiwan, but might protect it because its independence represents democracy. At the same time, America has other military bases in Asia (and does not need Taiwan), and realizes that spreading democracy does not work.

August 22, 2004 @ 12:51 am | Comment

Maybe the way he sees it is that simply by declaring independence, Taiwan is “attacking” China. Remember, this is Lau Guan Kim doing the writing, and he sees things, um, differently than most of us do.

August 22, 2004 @ 1:24 am | Comment

Lau Guan Kim is a Fujian-ese name, which is not ‘mandarin-ised’. Could this bloke (Guan Kim is a male name but could be a pseudonym for a she) be from an overseas Chinese community with Fujian-ese clans, like Singapore or Malaysia?

August 22, 2004 @ 2:54 am | Comment

He lives in Singapore, I know that.

August 22, 2004 @ 11:20 am | Comment

China will attack Taiwan during the final hour of the opening ceremony of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

The attack will involve missiles launched from a Fujian base by a “rebel” PLA general, who will be promptly arrested and executed.

The missiles will take out government buildings and military bases in Taiwan.

All flights will be grounded during the crisis, making the tourists and heads of state at the Olympics virtual hostages in Beijing.

China will rush troops to Taiwan to restore order and help rebuild the damage. The shattered island will be rehabilitated as an autonomous province of China with no war, no US intervention and no major loss of life.

However, I expect that the IOC will not be impressed.

Any budding Tom Clancy out there want to have a go at writing this up over the next year? We can split the royalties.

August 22, 2004 @ 7:47 pm | Comment

The idea of Taiwan trying to start a war is too ridiculous. If there were a war, then the only surefire loser would be Taiwan (however long the war lasted, whatever the result) – just about everybody on the island is aware of that (including Chen Shui bian).

People in Taiwan are a bit blase about the danger of an invasion, and overconfident of US support – but wanting to be attacked by a country 50 times the size of yourself?

August 22, 2004 @ 8:27 pm | Comment

Asia by Blog – Month in review

Thank you to everyone for the good wishes. Everyone is doing well. Now to keep you going…as part of the Winds of Change team I provide a monthly briefing on Asian goings-on, particularly China and SE Asia. I thought this would give me a good opportun…

August 23, 2004 @ 5:20 pm | Comment

Simon’s E. Asia Overview: Aug 25/04

It’s time to have a look at East Asia and what’s been making the news in Asian blogs over the past month. We cover China (in depth), as well as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore et. al).

August 24, 2004 @ 11:13 pm | Comment

LGK is a Singaporean.Loves to write.Does it in a lot of Forums – Muzi, Asiawind, CD amongst others.

He is a Singaporean. Got his picture in the local papers too over there after Sept 11.
Interesting old man.


September 26, 2004 @ 6:40 am | Comment

i dont care those chinese if they want to invade taiwan for as long they will not attack america or other asian country except taiwan, because they do they will taste the power of freedom and democrcy angry and chinese haters!!!kill them alll!!!!!

February 1, 2006 @ 10:45 pm | Comment

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