Here’s what Zogby says:
The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team’s attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.
Oh frabjuous day. Holden distills the numbers from today’s Zogby poll:
Among Hispanic Voters:
Among Southern Voters:
Viewed Favorably in the South:
Approve of Bush’s Job Performance in the South: 44%
US Headed in the Right Direction in the South: 43%
Among Young Voters (18-29) :
Among Single Voters:
In the Red States:
In the Blue States:
Among People Who Did Not Vote in 2000:
There is no way you can spin these numbers and say they’re positive for bush. This has to be alarming to the GOP, and I’ll bet the farm they’re working on their next set of dirty tricks right now.
I didn’t get a chance to blog Kerry’s speech last night because I had relatives over for dinner, and by now there are more than enough posts about Kerry’s performance. The one thing that’s amazed me is how so many bloggers and pundits came to wildly different conclusions about it. Sully said he liked Kerry less after the speech but went on to note lots of things in it he liked; Billmon hated the first half and liked the last half; Kevin Drum didn’t like the last half but liked the first half. InstaPuppy found plenty of bloggers who hated it (surprise) but Mickey Kaus said it served its purpose well. CNN interviewed a very conservative columnist for the NY Post immediately afterward (sorry, don’t remember his name) who said he now believes Kerry could really win. David Brooks on PBS thought it was great. Tom Oliphant didn’t. Reaction is more all over the map than I’ve ever seen. Not at all llike the reaction to Clinton’s speech, which was praised across the board, by his bitterest enemies and staunchest supporters.
My relatives and I sat transfixed over dinner as we watched Kerry speak last night, and we all thought it was masterful. Sure, there were some promises that will be impossible to keep, but there always are at conventions. What he did was instill confidence that he can be the commander in chief, and looking at the poll numbers above, there is no denying he was effective. Argue about his record and his alleged waffling, call him the No. 1 liberal, attack him for driving an SUV or not being clear whether he threw medals or ribbons, it doesn’t matter. Our nation, suffocating from Bush fatigue, longs for a change, and Kerry proved he can step up and take the reins.
The best moment for me was when he extended the olive branch to bush, asking if the negative attacks could be ended. Brilliant. Now, whenever the negative attacks come (and they sure will), the Dems can remind the public of Kerry’s offer and say, “There he goes again,” as Reagan said so effectively of Carter.
Looking at the poll above, I see how irrelevant most of our pundits are. The only true measure of the speech is those numbers, and we’ll see a lot more of them over the next few days.
One of the most interesting polls last week showed that the No. 1 concern of most Americans is, by far, the economy — and not taxes, which was way down the list. Iraq was next, and then terrorism. On the first two, bush is demonstrably weak. I believe he’s even weaker when it comes to terrorism, but he’s still perceived as Mr. Tough, though that image should fade more and more, especially as more Americans realize just how disastrous both Iraq and Afghanistan have become.
So bush is vulnerable on all fronts, while the Kerry campaign is infused with energy, enthusiasm and cash. Karl Rove sees this too, so I’m sure Bush’s Brain is running on overdrive. Hopefully the public has by now become immune to bush’s last-minute dirty tricks, but there’ll nevertheless be more on the way.
Apologies if this post rambled, and apologies for not giving links to some of the bloggers cited above; I’m just too tired to hunt them down.
Don’t forget to get your absentee ballots and to send them in on time. We finally have a chance to save our country, and the election really is Kerry’s to lose. Dethroning bush depends on each of us. Let’s make it happen. Even you, Conrad. Just do it.
Richard Burger is the author of Behind the Red Door: Sex in China, an exploration of China's sexual revolution and its clash with traditional Chinese values.