USA votes 2008 – A tale of two candidacies

The news just out is that Mitt Romney has withdrawn from the Republican race after he failed to make sufficient gains in the Super Tuesday contests. John McCain is now effectively assured the nomination. In contrast neither Clinton nor Obama were able to claim a decisive victory, with both teams pointing to reasons to look positive.

This is a complete reversal from the end of last year. Back then Hillary was still viewed as the clear favourite for the Democrat crown, whilst the Republican race had a large number of candidates fighting for the top spot. Now it is the Republicans who are rallying around one figure, whilst the Democrats could have to wait until August for the final result.

So, good news for John McCain. Mitt Romney’s comments appeared directed at encouraging GOP conservatives to back him to defeat the Democrats, even if he didn’t refer to the senator by name. McCain’s only opponent, Huckabee, poses no real threat as he lacks national appeal. Support of certain anti-McCain commentators did little for Romney, so it won’t help him either even if they try to rally around the minister. This gives “Mac” time to rally the party around him.

Because time is important. Currently a significant number of Republicans are sulking about some of McCain’s political leanings. These aren’t for show, because some of the moderate views he expressed were more likely to hinder rather than help his nomination campaign. If he had been cynical he would have acted conservative in the nomination round and then stressed more liberal policies later. But what you see is what you would get with him – and he’s not afraid of speaking his mind. So, with the Democrats still focusing on the nomination the Republicans will have the opportunity to band together and start looking for those crucial swing-voters.

As for anyone who is disappointed at McCain’s success, I would say that it is better to have two good candidates for America’s presidency than one good and one awful, even if in the former situation your personal choice loses out.

Raj

The Discussion: 41 Comments

I know it’s laughable to many, but it’s important to point out that Huckabee isn’t in fact McCain’s only opponent. Ron Paul, to my knowledge, hasn’t dropped out.

As unimportant as it may seem, this election season has proven that everything we said couldn’t happen could actually happen.

February 8, 2008 @ 5:14 am | Comment

A lot of Republican primary states are winner takes all. Although Ron Paul has not drop out, he isn’t spending any money to do serious harm to McCain. Also, do you know what p.o. me this Tuesday at the polling place? The mentally challenged Democrats and independents trying to get the Republican ballots but they cannot by state primary law (Republican primary is a closed primary in California) and delay the voting lines.

February 8, 2008 @ 6:00 am | Comment

Arty, most of the remaining states (of any note) are not winner-takes-all. That’s why McCain was favoured for the nomination even before Romney dropped out, as even if he didn’t top the remaining contests he could still win more than enough delegates by coming in second place.

February 8, 2008 @ 6:24 am | Comment

Now it is the Republicans who are rallying around one figure, whilst the Democrats could have to wait until August for the final result.

So, good news for John McCain.

I strongly disagree. The interesting battle between the first viable female and African-American candidates for president has been getting lots of press ink. Once McCain secures the nomination, he’ll move to the inside pages unless he starts shooting off his mouth and saying controversial things. A dirty fight between Clinton and Obama would harm the eventual winner, but I think both candidates realize that they have to be careful about attacking the other, lest Clinton alienate African-Americans or Obama offend women voters. The negative reaction by black leaders to Bill Clinton’s comparison of Barack Obama with Jesse Jackson after the South Carolina primary illustrates the delicacy of the contest.

February 8, 2008 @ 7:49 am | Comment

With the exception of Thompson, there haven’t been any conservative contenders for the Republican nomination and McCain’s rise and eventual nomination will do nothing but further divide the Republican party because he won’t be getting many conservatives to vote for him. I’ll either write someone else in or give my vote to Nader if he decides to jump in to steal some votes.

February 8, 2008 @ 8:42 am | Comment

McCain is the closest thing to a principled man that the GOP has. He is the best candidate they could run.

I breathed a sigh of relief when he became the frontrunner, because now I have someone I can happily vote for if the Clintons succeed in crushing that uppity Obama.

February 8, 2008 @ 12:02 pm | Comment

I strongly disagree. The interesting battle between the first viable female and African-American candidates for president has been getting lots of press ink. Once McCain secures the nomination, he’ll move to the inside pages unless he starts shooting off his mouth and saying controversial things.

You forget that Huckabee is still officially in the running. He may bow out after a while, but it is likely the race will be more gentlemanly from now on. A commentator on a US TV channel (forget which) said it was like a boxer having sparing matches with his training partner.

February 8, 2008 @ 3:53 pm | Comment

THM, what was it that McCain actually did that you find so dreadful you could never vote for him?

February 8, 2008 @ 4:11 pm | Comment

Richard,

McCain, like President Bush, doesn’t have a fiscally conservative bone in his body and that bothers me, especially when considering the outlook of our economy at the moment. Aside from that, I am adamantly opposed to his stance on several key issues and nor do I like the way he panders to the media. McCain, like John Kerry, is a flip-flopper and he lacks character.

I will say this for him, at least he really cares about the country, whereas Hillary simply wants more power.

February 8, 2008 @ 7:57 pm | Comment

McCain? US troops in Iraq for 100 years, may be?

Delegates will not be too happy with the GOP convention choices come May. A lot can happen in three months.
Ron Paul wants to free the youth from Big government, Big Bother, unconstitutional IRS codes, empire building wars, nation building, etc and be the Commander in Chief of a non-interventionist military. Let the middle class again thrive & let the youth of America and the youth of the world have a future with a constitutional benevolent superpower in a world free of terrorism.
“Freedom is Popular, join the Ron Paul Revolution!”
The grassroots can begin to canvass and set up websites in support of Ron Paul’s independent race. We can begin uniting the disenfranchised, the non-voters, registered Democrats dismayed by pro-war Hillary Clinton and the coming legions of disappointed Barack Obama supporters.
On Super Tuesday, Ron Paul won some modest second and third place finishes. But more importantly he remained in a GOP race that continues to be wide open.
J

February 8, 2008 @ 7:59 pm | Comment

I could never vote for McCain because as president he’d be in a position fulfill his dream to amnesty the illegal aliens and open up the border with Mexico. McCain’s point man on this issue has called for open borders, so it’s pretty clear what McCain really means when he talks about “comprensive refrom.” I like Mexicans just fine and I enjoy a good taco and tequilla as much as the next guy. But McCain wants to live in a country run by Mexicans, wouldn’t it be simpler if he just moved to Mexico? Hundred of millions of people of all over the world would immigrate to the US if they could, so a literal open borders policy is an impractial idea and surely McCain is smart enough to know this. So what’s really going on? I can only concluded that McCain calculates that all the new immigrants will be grateful enough to re-elect him and that he’ll be out of town in time for someone else to clean up the mess.

February 8, 2008 @ 8:12 pm | Comment

“comprensive refrom.” I like Mexicans just fine and I enjoy a good taco and tequilla as much as the next guy. Hundred of millions of people of all over the world would immigrate to the US if they could, so a literal open borders policy is an impractical idea and surely McCain is smart enough to know this.”
I have yet to hear anyone who really believes that McCain, Huckabee (or Romney) can be relied upon to end the massive, illegal rupture of the US borders – in fact, just the opposite is true. But, Ron Paul clearly wouldn’t let this nightmare continue if he was elected to be America’s next president.
There’s something else, Ron Paul said Ronald Reagan said to him that any nation that goes off the gold & silver as legal tender will not remain a great nation for long. So, instead of catering to special interest groups like the Fed Reserve group of private banks, the unconstitutional IRS and the war industry to pillage the nation, enslave Americans and the world, but instead just follow the rule of law and the Constitution which means going back to pre 1913 zero income tax, reasonable tax on business to promote free enterprise, etc; sounds like a pretty smart and just way to serve the people. I am not American so I acknowledge my ignorance of US policies but so, is Ron Paul’s ideas not feasible ???? Kindly advise.
F

February 8, 2008 @ 8:47 pm | Comment

Ron Paul at the MTV-MySpace
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUs1FAaMNDA&feature=user

I am not an American either but I enjoy reading and listening to the talks. Dr. Ron Paul is very good in my opinion.

K

February 8, 2008 @ 9:05 pm | Comment

@jfk

if you are more than one person you need more than one id – it makes it confusing otherwise.

“But more importantly he remained in a GOP race that continues to be wide open.”

did you read the post? mccain is the gop candidate, barring an act of god

February 8, 2008 @ 11:11 pm | Comment

Standing in my Georgia polling location… looking at the touch screen, thinking about who has done more for this nation…. I picked McCain. Arguably, no other candidate has ever experienced a loss of liberty, and no other has an understanding of liberty like McCain.

JFK: you kinda scare me a bit. Are you one person or different people? Your comments slightly freak me out. Is that just a Canadian thing or an excited immigrant new English speaking young person thing? Keep posting though if you are just one person. If you’re more than one person, how about everyone getting unique names?

February 9, 2008 @ 12:05 am | Comment

JFK

McCain? US troops in Iraq for 100 years, may be?

How long have US troops been in Japan?

He was talking about bases, not fighting an insurgency.

Peter

But McCain wants to live in a country run by Mexicans

Err….. where did you get that idea from?

February 9, 2008 @ 3:18 am | Comment

You forget that Huckabee is still officially in the running.

No, I haven’t forgotten. That’s why I said, “Once McCain secures the nomination,…. From the start, Clinton and Obama have drawn more US media and public attention than all the Republican candidates together.

February 9, 2008 @ 7:03 am | Comment

From the start, Clinton and Obama have drawn more US media and public attention than all the Republican candidates together.

Because Clinton was seen as inevitable and Obama surprised everyone by being competitive. That will change when one of them comes out on top.

February 9, 2008 @ 7:26 am | Comment

THM, what was it that McCain actually did that you find so dreadful you could never vote for him?

McCain’s voting record is online at People Smart. There are two disturbing things about this record. First, underneath it all, JM is a pretty run-of-the-mill right winger with a few interesting wrinkles here and there, probably due the large number of Hispanics whose votes he needs. Second, note the huge number of “not voting.” He’s apparently one of the laziest members of the Senate, introducing few bills and often not voting. We are not facing “two good candidates” as a commentor noted above. The Republicans have not offered us a candidate with vision and a sound record of public service since….since….wait….Hoover?… while the Dems are giving us Obama, a total unknown, and Clinton, a creature of the Establishment who began her career as a Nixon campaign worker.

Most urgently, we need to end the war in Iraq and switch the economy from fossil fuels to electricity over the next five years. No candidate appears to me to embody the necessary vision, energy and urgency. McCain and Clinton are pure Establishment and hence useless, and I don’t know what to think about Obama yet.

Michael

February 9, 2008 @ 9:47 am | Comment

Obama did surprise people, but I don’t think Clinton was or is seen as inevitable. She is vulnerable because of past controversial activities (Whitewater, health care reform, surname changes) and comments (Tammy Wynette, baking cookies), which fueled the Vast Right-wing Conspiracy and made her a very juicy target for pundits, commentators, and hate-mongers. She was probably the most disliked First Lady in modern times although Nancy Reagan was a close second. During her Senate campaign, she was tagged as a carpet bagger by the opposition. Hillary is not a natural politician like her husband, and I am very surprised as how well she has done so far.

February 9, 2008 @ 9:51 am | Comment

“The Republicans have not offered us a candidate with vision and a sound record of public service since….since….wait….Hoover?…”

You mean you didn’t like Ike? Honorable service in WWI and leadership as a commanding general in WWII don’t qualify as a sound record of public service? He remapped our country with the interstate highway system and defended the Constitution against segregationists. He also warned us in vain about the rising US military-industrial complex.

February 9, 2008 @ 10:11 am | Comment

Michael, I agree with just about everything you said about McCain, but that leaves unanswered my original question: why the total loathing of him, to the point of saying, in effect, you would rather die than vote for him, as THM feel? Being lazy or wishy washy or a hawk – those are bad things, but surely GWB and many others are far more guilty. I am trying to understand the fury here, the revulsion against him, as I try to understand that against H. Clinton. They’re not the pick of the litter, but they are hardly ax murderers or child rapists.

JFK is definitely a troll, meaning he has posted here under different names and enjoys getting reactions by making inane comments and/or insulting others. He said he was gone yesterday, but here he is. At least he’s non-toxic, unlike Peter K. above. I may give Peter the most repellent commenter of the year award for his deranged discussion a month or so ago about the bombing of Cambodia, when he referred to those who had their family members incinerated in front of their eyes and their homes and lives blown to pieces as “poor dears.” That is the comment of a demon.

February 9, 2008 @ 11:16 am | Comment

Raj,

I can’t read McCain’s mind and I don’t know why he is promoting immigration. I left out an “If,” so the way you’ve quoted me makes it sound like I am claiming psychic powers, which was certainly not my intention. It doesn’t matter what’s in McCain’s mind anyway. The net result of his proposals would be to give Mexicans a decisive role in the US political process.

McCain’s immigration bill was written by La Raza and the other Mexican-American lobby groups. Illegal immigrants would get “Z” visas that would not only give them legal status, but would also mean that they would be forgiven back taxes, a kind of “amnesty plus.”

Mickey Kaus over at Slate has done a good job of showing that McCain’s border security proposals are a fraud: “But I’ll build the goddamned fence if they want it.”

McCain’s spokesman to the Hispanic community is a former Mexican cabinet minister who wants to lift all restrictions on immigration: http://tinyurl.com/yqluzj
I supported McCain when he ran in 2000 and it only after he joined the “Gang of 14” in 2005 that I started thiinking that he probably wouldn’t make such a good president. Now he seems to have signed up with left wing causes across the board: illegal immigration, CO2 restrictions, pro-abortion judges, and civil rights for terrorists.

Hopefully, there will be some third party or indepedent candidate worth voting for in the general election. As it is now, I’m stuck with the candidate financed by the dictators of China and Kazakhstan.

February 9, 2008 @ 11:49 am | Comment

McCain is the most electable out of the Republican field. Who else would you vote for? A wacko puritan like Huckabee or a flip flopping panderer like Romney?

Giving amnesty to a certain percentage of illegal aliens is logical, then shut the door hard. The NAU is pretty much inevitable anyways.

As for Hillary vs Obama, it boils down to a bitter middle aged ice queen elitist bitch vs a consensus building populist.

February 9, 2008 @ 4:39 pm | Comment

What got me today was the comment from a Clinton campaign “insider” that Obama’s comment that he was “puzzled” by McCain’s latest attack on him was “sad”, showing Obama wouldn’t know how to respond.
This at the same time some talking head I’ve never heard of was attacked by Clinton for making the crude comment that her daughter was being “pimped out.” In fact, her team has now declared that it won’t debate Barack Obama on the network. Justifiable response, of course. But where was the Clinton team’s response to the far more distasteful comment by McCain himself while speaking at a Republican dinner a few years back: “Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno.”

— Sen. John McCain,

February 9, 2008 @ 6:04 pm | Comment

It was the press who was curiously restrained back in 1998. The NYT, WaPo and others noted the joke but would not print it. The joke was not recorded on tape, and McCain did apologize to the Clintons in a telephone conversation.

February 10, 2008 @ 6:54 am | Comment

American Elections are like game shows, or hollywood movies. And even the media treats it like a show, a football game. Come on! It’s all entertainment, a game for the rich. Only fools will be serious about it, and think you have democracy because of these shows. The more such entertainment elections you have, the more CCP will be happy, because it’ll only show the Chinese people how stupid these elections are. That is why CCP is not afraid to cover these elections in China’s media, CCTV and Sina.com both have special webpages to track these election results! Let me ask you, why does CCTV or Sina so eager to broadcast news about American elections?

February 10, 2008 @ 7:49 am | Comment

Because the US Presidential election has the most profound impact on the world of any country’s national elections (for those that have them, which excludes Bad China). It also shows the importance of the US as compared to China. We are so important that we rate coverage in your country. China’s political operations merit no such coverage in the rest of the world.

February 10, 2008 @ 11:23 am | Comment

nanheyangrouchuan: The bills before Congress that are serious about securing the border are the “enforcement first” bills. Border security after amnesty? Go ahead! Pull my other leg!

Keir: I heard that joke before, but it’s even funnier the second time. I just hope no one tells Hillary or she’ll cry again!

HongXing: If Norman Hsu’s fundraising efforts are any indication, the Chinese government is putting a lot of money into Hillary’s campaign. I sure hope that China is getting its entertainment dollar worth.

February 10, 2008 @ 11:47 am | Comment

nanheyangrouchuan: Lay off the bitter middle aged ice queen elitist bitch! OK, she may be in the pocket of foriegn dictators and corrupted by dirty uranium mining and cattle future money. She’ll probably thank China for its support by selling it some neato weapon technology. But at this point, she is our only shot at getting a president who won’t make a really catastrophic and irreversible policy decision. McCain’s dream is to open the border with Mexico. Obama pretty clearly plans to pull the troops out of Iraq and restart the war (and he’ll probably open the border as well).

February 10, 2008 @ 12:28 pm | Comment

HongXing-
Some media coverages (like the ones you choose to receive) prefer broadcasting the US election news like Hollywood flicks or game shows. Even you tune into it!!!
However, at least the American elections have that potential allure of a blockbuster!!! And that’s great! Some regime’s elections (like CCP’s) only come close to a 50’s sex education on celluloid. Yawn.

February 10, 2008 @ 1:00 pm | Comment

“But at this point, she is our only shot at getting a president who won’t make a really catastrophic and irreversible policy decision”

Speaking of opening up the border, how do you think she gets so much of the Latino vote? Besides, the formation of the NAU is pretty much set in stone anyways.

Obama talks about pulling out, but even Bush does. We’ll be pulling out in about 5 years and that is a reality that any US president will have to face.

As for making more horrible, irreversible decisions, Shrillary will probably make the USN share Pearl Harbor with the PLAN in the name of “mutual cooperation” and the US cultural office along with its very fit staff will be pulled out of Taiwan, and we’ll sell a couple of Virginia class subs and some F22s to China to boot.

February 10, 2008 @ 3:42 pm | Comment

Well, I see that my comments on a previous thread weren’t as outrageous as some might have thought: Obama will be assassinated if he wins: Nobel winner Lessing

February 11, 2008 @ 3:07 am | Comment

nanhe, I am on vacation, I am not editing or deleting any comments – except this one since you are asking for it.

I condemn Hong Xing all the time. All the time.

I have asked you before not to use the kind of language you are using here. I have asked you before to watch the personal insults. I am not asking you again. If I am truly the monster you claim, a “panda-licker” and worse, I request you keep away from this site for the sake of your own peace of mind and mental health. But never come here and comment at length about how much you hate my site. If you hated it, you would not be here.

Richard

February 11, 2008 @ 3:21 am | Comment

It’s odd how the issues with which I agree with McCain (immigration, torture, etc.) are the same ones that drive his conservative detractors mental. I suppose that’s what makes me a Democrat, then.

I don’t want to be pollyannish, but man- the Republicans do seem to be in trouble. McCain is the presumptive nominee, mathematically certain to capture the nomination, yet is still only able to get 26% of the Republican primary vote in the Washington caucus. Huckabee’s strength there makes it more difficult to write him off as a regional candidate, and it’s amazing that Romney still got 16% days after he withdrew from the race.

If I were a Republican, I’d be a little worried. After all, McCain is a orthodox Republican in most respects: hawkish foreign policy, supply-side economics, and opposition to gay marriage and abortion. Seems like a proper Elephant to me, yet people like Peter get so worked up over immigration (the Mexicans are coming!!!!) they act like the Arizona Senator would govern like a Ralph Nader.

Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama march on.

February 11, 2008 @ 10:49 am | Comment

With Obama pulling ahead of Hillary, I may have to stop with the McCain bashing. We know from her track record the Hillary doesn’t really mean it when she calls for surrender in the war on terror. But Obama strikes me as a true believer. Better tacos and tequilla than burkas and suicide bombers.

nanheyangrouchuan: Latinos prefer Hillary to Obama because they don’t like blacks. They certainly aren’t single-issue immigration voters.

Matt: Torture? I want to see al Qaida members executed.

It’s normal for the opposition party to have a higher primary participation rate. It doesn’t tell you anything about prospects for the general election. Also, Hillary is very well known and people have strong opinions about her, much more so than anyone on the Republican side.

February 12, 2008 @ 12:20 am | Comment

You want to see them executed? So Guantanamo Bay is a bit too…wussy, then? That’s a fairly obtuse read of the torture issue.

And while it might be normal for the opposition to have a higher participation rate in the primaries, 2008 is unique because for the first time in a half-century neither side coalesced around a candidate in the primaries, and so there’s no institutional reason for Republicans to be less enthusiastic for their candidates than the Democrats this year.

Clinton is indeed well known but McCain and Giuliani were hardly obscure.

February 12, 2008 @ 10:22 am | Comment

Peter, have you thought about finding a blog that’s more in line with your ideology, like frontpage, or stormfront? You really don’t belong here.

February 12, 2008 @ 6:07 pm | Comment

OK, all you lame ass wanna be political pundits, sitting in China, thinking you know somthin’

Political opinion from a South Carolina Rep, former high school classmate:

Dems: No idea…the “conventional wisdom” is that Hillary and Barack
will
team up. I don’t buy it…she would never accept VP, and I just don’t
seem
him taking it either. People underestimate the egos involved at that
level.
Barack is young enough to go back to the Senate and wait again, which
also
weighs against a decision to take VP. A wild guess: she wins at
convention. (It really is too bad there isn’t really a third candidate
who
was waiting on the sidelines — Al Gore doesn’t count, Jimmy Carter
might,
if he were younger — because this could be the one time in our
lifetime
that a compromise candidate might come out of a convention.

GOP: We lose regardless. McCain wins…my desperate hope is that he
takes
Romney as VP ($$$ plus a shot at Massachusetts), but in whatever
manifestation his victory is a harbinger of hard times for the party.
If
McCain is the candidate, the malaise may slide all the way down the
ticket.
Independents love him…but independents don’t vote down the ticket.
Plus,
they are only 20% of the electorate in the general election.
Conservatives
(40%) will stay home out of protest. The only caveat to that is if
Hillary
is the Dem…in which case the conservatives will show up to vote
against
her. But, as the Dems proved to historic proportion in 2004, you can’t
win
by running against someone…you have to somebody on the ticket that
people
want to vote for.

SUMMARY: Hillary v. McCain. GOP loses the White House, but stays even
at
the federal level; makes large gains at the state level as the base
turns
out to vote against Hillary.

Worst-case scenario: Obama v. McCain. GOP loses at every level, and
-the
Cannae of the “modern” (post-Reagan) GOP party that was telegraphed in
2006
is completed.

COMMENTS????

February 12, 2008 @ 7:18 pm | Comment

“Worst-case scenario: Obama v. McCain. GOP loses at every level, and -the Cannae of the “modern” (post-Reagan) GOP party that was telegraphed in 2006 is completed.”

Why is this the worst-case scenario?

If it happens I’ll be breaking out the champagne.

GO OBAMA!

February 12, 2008 @ 7:45 pm | Comment

It’s a victory for the liberals, either way: McCain or Obama. Although Obama is to the left of liberal.

February 18, 2008 @ 9:33 am | Comment

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