Nicholas Kristof: India vs. China

They’re Rounding the First Turn! And the Favorite Is . . .
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: January 17, 2006

The great race of the 21st century is under way between China and India to see which will be the leading power in the world in the year 2100.

President Bush’s trip to India next month is important, for we in America must brace ourselves to see not only China looming in our rear-view mirror, but eventually India as well. India was the world’s


great disappointment of the 20th century, but now it’s moving jerkily forward with economic reforms, reminding me of China around 1990.

One of India’s (and China’s) greatest strengths is its hunger for education. Most American newspapers lure readers with comics, and some British tabloids with photos of topless women, but a Calcutta daily newspaper is so shameless that it publishes a column on math equations. Imagine titillating readers with trigonometry!

I visited the ramshackle Hasi Khusi Kindergarten and Primary School in a poor area of Calcutta, where most of the pupils’ parents are illiterate street vendors, rickshaw drivers or laborers. Out of an average family income of $23 a month, the parents pay a one-time fee of $13 for registration and then $2.30 a month.

“What they didn’t get, their children must get,” explained the principal, Sampa Sarkar. Even kindergartners study English, Bengali, math, art and music – and do 30 minutes of homework. Private schools like this one are booming all across the country.

With India’s ever-deepening pool of English speakers, its outsourcing boom will continue. Your next employment contract may be prepared by an Indian law firm, your mutual fund advised by Indian analysts – and if you need elective surgery, you may get it at a luxurious Indian hospital that will let foreigners combine their medical care with a recuperative vacation in Agra or Goa.

India has a solid financial system, while China’s banking system is a catastrophe. And India is in better shape demographically for long-term growth: China has already reaped most of the economic benefits of population control and is now rapidly aging, but India’s population will be disproportionately working-age for many decades to come (a factor that strongly correlates with economic growth).

India’s democracy, free press and civil society also provide a measure of political stability. Sure, India can erupt, as it did with the slaughter of Muslims in Gujarat in 2002. But the risks of social and political explosions in India are declining, while in China they may be rising.

China will probably manage its eventual transition to democracy with bearable turbulence, as Taiwan and South Korea did, but with China anything is conceivable, including a coup d’état, mass unrest or even civil war.

Yet if democracy is one of India’s strengths, it’s also a weakness. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh knows exactly what to do, and I’ve rarely met a leader more competent (or less charismatic). But his reforms are stalled or slowed in the Indian political labyrinth. India’s basic problem is that its economic policy-making isn’t nearly as shrewd, pro-growth or farsighted as China’s.

That’s a tragedy: we should all want India to demonstrate that democracy is an advantage. But Indian lawmakers aren’t helping.

Foreigners are still blocked from directly investing in some sectors in India, like retailing. Privatization is lethargic. Food subsidies are soaring and are so inefficient that it costs 6.6 rupees to transfer 1 rupee’s worth of food to the poor. Restrictive labor laws mean that companies hesitate to hire, and regulations tend to suffocate entrepreneurship.

The upshot is that India has enjoyed a boom that has added few jobs. Only about one million people work in technology, and manufacturing, which could absorb tens of millions of poor rural laborers, trails even Bangladesh. The losers are India’s poor.

And while China has been exceptionally shrewd in upgrading its infrastructure, India has been pathetic. India’s economic future is marred by its third-rate roads and ports.

India is also horrendously mismanaging its AIDS crisis; it may already have more H.I.V. cases than any country in the world. AIDS casts a cloud over this nation’s entire future.

The bottom line is that the once-great nation of India is reawakening from several centuries of torpor, and facing less risk of a political cataclysm than China. India is poised to again be a great world power.

But over all, my bet is that China will still grow faster and win the race of the century. I’m going to tell my kids to keep studying Chinese, rather than switch to Hindi.

The Discussion: 50 Comments

Theres one thing I wanted to comment on just here, that is the Indian birth rate. Most of the people citing the Indian birth rate don’t bother going into more specifics other than that its high, however it should be noted the India’s birth rate is geographically skewed. Northern India’s birthrate is higher than the souths and more critically, birth rates in major Indian cities are extremely low while the countryside is extremely high. What this will mean is an abundant supply of cheap labour in the future, but not neccessarily skilled labour, at least not until India becomes more urbanized.

January 17, 2006 @ 4:58 am | Comment

And like China the birthrate is skewered towards the male of the species with the possibility of a demographic disaster.

January 17, 2006 @ 6:14 am | Comment

Its difficult to make any generalisations about india.But what certainly can be said about india is the slow pace of reforms.
This is largely because of the coalition politics.India is the only country which has democratically elected communists.We have very competent men at the helm but the communists coalition partners are a big drag.

January 17, 2006 @ 2:10 pm | Comment

You forgot Poland!

Ok not really, but there are a number of other countries besides India that have democratically elected communists.

January 17, 2006 @ 2:24 pm | Comment

My conversation With an Indian

In Shenzhen, in a small coffee shop by the road, I was meeting an Indian from our client company, on a business trip to China. I started my first conversation with an Indian. Indian asked me: “Why don’t you ask for a receipt for your coffee?”

I, confused, said, “I can’t reimburse it, why receipt”?

Indian proudly said, “When our company sends us on business trips, all meals are reimbursed”

Before I can answer, Indian asked, “Do you know Tibet?”

I said I do. Indian started again, “This small country is between India and China.”

I replied immediately, “You have the Dalai of Tibet. We have the regime of Tibet.” I was about to kick him if he wasn’t an employee of our client company.

As we left the coffee shop, Indian mentioned Hong Kong and said randomly and stupidly, “Is Hong Kong right beside China?”. I was amusedly depressed. Must be very good propanganda in India for their citizens to receive this kind of knowledge!

So I replied, “100 years ago. China fought a war with Britain, and lost. So Hong Kong was taken away by Britain. 100 years later, China became stronger, and so took Hong Kong back.”

Indian thought a bit, and said “So Hong Kong belongs to China?”

I affirmatively said, “Just like New Delhi belongs to India.”

Indian changed the subject.

He’s from the TATA company in India, working as a software programmer for TATA. TATA is one the biggest company in India, leader in automobile and steel.

He started to proudly show me his employee ID. And said, “In my company in India, I can take this ID and face a scanner, and all doors would open for me.”

I said, “We can do the same here.”

India coughed a bit, and asked me, “Do you know TATA?” I said yes I do, it’s a big company.

He looked very proud, and said, “Is your company a big one?”

I said, “It’s not so big. Only average in China. China has about 12 cell phone companies. Our is just an average-sized one”

He felt surprised for the first time, “China has 12 cell phone companies? I always thought there are only 1 to 2 companies in China capable of producing cell phones.”

I replied, “Our company is not so big. We only sold 10,000,000 phones last year.”

When Indian heard the figure 10,000,000, I noticed a big change in the color and texture of his face. His left eye twitched a little bit.

I then continued, “Hmm, yes. Last month, our company just sold half a million CDMA phones in India.”

Indian was shocked again, said, “half a million. That’s a big number. How many cell phone users in China?”

I replied, “China has China Mobile, and it has about 200,000,000 customers in China. Another one is called China Telecom, and it has about 100,000,000 customers.”

Indian looked he was about to faint, and said, “Oh my god.”, his voice a bit unstable.

I continued, “Usually for a Chinese, he buys a new cell phone every 1-2 years.”

Indian still could not believe his ears and thought I was lying. So he asked, “In China, can a software engineer make 150 dollars a month?”

I was about to cough blood. How can India fool its citizens like this? I said, 150 dollars? That’s about how much they can earn in 1 week.

Indian was visibly shaken and could not say a word for the next few hours. In his mind, Chinese are poor, Chinese could not effort cell phones. Chinese’ salaries are lower than Indians.

Then at the end of that day, he did something that made me laugh for days.

He took out a CD, and came to my laptop, and asked, “Can your laptop support CD Rom?”

I thought to myself, “This is the level of an employee of India’s biggest software company?”

I lent him my USB harddrive. But his old IBM laptop did not support USB ports…

Then we went to our hotel, and in our hotel, I connected online using wireless. I then opened a friend’s MSN Spaces site, and showed Indian a few pictures of the city of Wu Xi. I told him, this is my hometown.

Indian was psychologically wounded, looked at the pictures, and said, “This is the most developed city in China, right?”.

I told him mercilessly, “No. There are a few hundred cities like this in China. Wu Xi is a very average one.”

Indian said, “Oh.”

I said, “Can I see some pictures of Indian cities”?

Indian, stated shifting his eyes, and touched his face, and coughed, and said “Tonight is too late. I am kind of tired, let’s sleep first.”

January 17, 2006 @ 2:27 pm | Comment

I can’t remember where I read this quote, but it is certainly worth considering (and I’m paraphrasing a bit, since I don’t have the source): “India is chaotic on the surface but fundamentally stable, while China is stable in appearance, but increasingly unstable under the surface.”

January 17, 2006 @ 3:42 pm | Comment

It’d tend to agree. However, it seems that by several metrics China is shooting past India. While it’s a good thing, it also gives supporters of authoritarian regimes a good amount of ammunition.

January 17, 2006 @ 5:01 pm | Comment

“it also gives supporters of authoritarian regimes a good amount of ammunition.”

No one in his conscious mind will support a government simply because it is authoritarian.

Nowadays, democracy is a fancy word that everyone rush to use it to take moral high ground. It is like in the heydays of communism, equality is a fancy word that everyone rush to endorse. In my view, both are just gimmicks.

According to my observation, the people who want democracy the earnest in China are usually the people who wish China in the worst shape.

January 17, 2006 @ 8:40 pm | Comment

Couldn’t have said it better myself, steve. You seem new here, welcome! Stick around a bit and you’ll find how many hostile elements habitate here.

January 17, 2006 @ 9:17 pm | Comment

Yeah, like Michael Anti and the Tiananmen Square students – they just do their thing because they hate China and want to see it fail.

January 17, 2006 @ 9:29 pm | Comment

Who said anything about supporting a regime ONLY because it is authoritarian? China HAS given authoritarian regimes, and their supporters, ammunition. China supports Zimbabwe and several other rogue states for access to their markets. The ammo is that these rogue states can thumb their noses at other powers when it comes to making reforms. Steve made a swift concusion on what Ed said, and it was not a just one.

January 17, 2006 @ 10:08 pm | Comment

China HAS given authoritarian regimes, and their supporters, ammunition. China supports Zimbabwe and several other rogue states for access to their markets. The ammo is that these rogue states can thumb their noses at other powers when it comes to making reforms. Steve made a swift concusion on what Ed said, and it was not a just one.

Are you saying that there’s some sort of a universally accepted standard that can be used to judge whether a country is “bad” or “good”, and if it’s “bad” the anyone who supports it is also “bad”? Isn’t this exactly how a dictatorial society works, where every citizen is branded as a “good” or a “bad” person? China supports Zimbabwe, that’s bad according to you, fine. USA supports Saudi Arabia, is that good or bad? Russia supports Iran, is that good or bad? Is Iran a “bad” country? And according to your own standards, aren’t China also a “bad” country by supporthing those “bad” country? If China is a “bad” country, why is the US doing so much business with China, doesn’t that make the US also a “bad” country?

You scream and yell about how China is authoritarian, yet you are applying the same kind of authoritarian principles when looking at countries in the international arena.

You say Zimbabwe is a bad country, I say it’s a respectable 3rd world country. You say the US is a great country, I say it is the biggest thread to globla security today. My question is, why should I always use your standard?

January 17, 2006 @ 10:37 pm | Comment

Too often Ameri-centric standards (an emphasis on individual rights and democracy among them) cloud domestic views of international events–often with disastrous results (look to the current justification for the invasion of Iraq and past utterances of “domino theory”). Why should China make reforms? Is there any hard, economic data for the U.S. in favor of greater individual liberty in China? No, I don’t want arguments regarding the sacredness of individual will, since there is not logic behind such sacredness–I only want a utilitarian answer: is there an economic benefit for the U.S. to promote destablizing political reform in China?

Furthermore, is there any actual economic benefit to China? If not, why should the Chinese people accept the calculus? Why should their leaders, bound to the Chinese utilitarian standard (not the Western rights-based one) accept political reform?

Maybe our country should just stick with pragmatism… hell, it worked for 200 years…

Props to China_hand and steve.

January 17, 2006 @ 10:59 pm | Comment

I fully concurred with China_hand on this matter. Having lived in America for almost 4 years, I can tell you that some Americans were very chauvinistic in the world view (think of George W. Bush). The way that public media portrayed countries that are “enemies” of U.S are very negative. They selectively picked up stories that “fit” to the ideas that Americans are promoting, such as free speech, and individual rights. To these guys, traditions, religious duty and public duty mean nothing when they report the stories, which I really doubt if it’s that bad. They thought that their ideas are “the best”, which are estrange in many ways. These guys don’t know (or somehow don’t recognize) that things in which an ordinary citizen in those “rogue states” worries about are not free speech, or individual rights. Most of the time, those things are employment, better lives, or how to get along with the day. Why spends time to talk about free speech, or myopic and mean-spirited individual rights when the mass of people can’t earn enough to even live to the standard of U.S, which is rich and superficial enough to lecture other people of “free speech” and “universal individual rights”. I had a chance to talk to a new immigrant from Iran (she came to U.S not because of religious persecution, don’t mistake, her dad is still in Iran), and from what she told me, Iran was NOT as bad as the way that Western media portrayed. I used to think of Iran very negatively because of reading U.S media. Well, Americans think of their media as fair. My answer is that they just don’t recognize how biased their media is.

January 17, 2006 @ 11:41 pm | Comment

The problem with big predictions of future performance is that they are always, by necessity, based wholly on past performance. Right now, simply because China is doing so well, one almost has to bet on China, with the recognition that things can and almost certainly will change. Any bet on China or India over the other is pure speculation. Why not just bet on both?

January 17, 2006 @ 11:42 pm | Comment

Too often Ameri-centric standards (an emphasis on individual rights and
democracy among them) cloud domestic views of international events–often with disastrous results (look to the current justification for the invasion of Iraq and past utterances of “domino theory”

I would say it was the abandonment of those “Ameri-centric standards” that allowed us to get involved in Iraq. It was the abandonment of usual media tenacity and a usually skeptical Congress that led to the disaster, because of the unique conditions after 911, when no one wanted to question the president.

January 18, 2006 @ 1:30 am | Comment

Some of the contributors here defend Beijing’s policies by arguing that it’s more important to do what’s good for China than to do what the West (or America) demands China should do.

OK, I agree with that. But who decides what’s good for China?

Have their been any independent opinion polls to prove that the majority of Chinese people agree with what Beijing is doing? Or agree with the direction in which Beijing is taking the country?

China’s government was not elected by the people. So how I can conclude that the views and decisions of the Chinese government represent those of the Chinese people?

January 18, 2006 @ 5:48 am | Comment

Its amusing to see how people tend toattribute china’s economic miracle to its autoritatian regime. china is rich today because of sound economic policies and good governance.But china does not have the ability to tolerate dissent and cannot solve political problems without retorting to force.India by contrast has done much better in this area.

January 18, 2006 @ 5:49 am | Comment

Sorry, I am standing by what I said. Why? Because I disagree with genocide. Yes, I think genocide is bad. And any regime that supports it, or does not at least discourage it is bad in my opinion. So yes, a country that does business with the regime in Zimbabwe is acting irresponsably in my opinion. As for universal standards of good and bad, genocide IS, at least officially, universally condemned. Ask Hu Jintao to tell you if he agrees with genocide, and I am pretty sure he will say no. Robert Mugabe would probably say the same publicly.

“You scream and yell about how China is authoritarian, yet you are applying the same kind of authoritarian principles when looking at countries in the international arena.”

1) I am not screaming and yelling.
2) Yes, I am being authoritarian in condemning regimes that do business with those that foster genocide. As for the other examples you mentioned, I did not bring them up, you did.

“My question is, why should I always use your standard?”

And my question is, who asked you to? If you want to say, even in gest, that Robert Mugabe, along with his regime, is your idol, go ahead. I never told you not to. But there are some crimes from which I won’t withhold judgement.

January 18, 2006 @ 9:07 am | Comment

Hi,

Thanks for posting the article online. People, please pay attention to what is really going on! The countries of the West are comparing China and India in order to foster a sense of rivalry…as in Divide and Conquer. Indians fell for it once, we wont again. Lets Asians stick together and ride the new century to the top!

Indian should remind Chinese to stop abusing Tibetans, eating strange animals and being so sensitive. Chinese should remind Indians to stop abusing (too many to name here) citizens, improve infrastructure, and to stop making wierd Bollywood movies. We should provide healthy competition to each other. Hanging out with chinese people, I’ve made some observations. Many South Indians and Chinese eat Conjee, and call elder sister Cheychi, etc. I’m sure we have more in common than not. Next time someone compares our native countries, remember to take it as constructive critisizm.

January 18, 2006 @ 12:04 pm | Comment

Same old, same old. Have we not heard, or read comparisons between China and India along these lines at least a hundred times before? Let’s face it, not only will India have to work and invest a lot more to catch up with China, it also has to face the fact that it’s a sham of a democracy. I don’t care how many times people call the Indian democracy “the largest,” or the “most vibrant,” if they can’t get things done it’s a piece of dung. Another psychological issues with India appears to be the extreme eagerness to please the West and the need to the loved by the West. If Indians can’t get past this mentality, they will always be the West’s servants. Yes, a large pool of Inglish speakers ready to serve the West.

January 18, 2006 @ 2:46 pm | Comment

These Westerners are only interested in sitting in their high chairs and criticizing and judging others. Don’t be fooled. They want nothing more than seeing disaster happen to either country, so they can get high and mighty, and say “See, told you so.”

January 18, 2006 @ 4:17 pm | Comment

Tommy, while I agree with the general principle of your comments (that most westerners, or groups of people for that matter, want their group to be numero uno) I don’t agree with your observation that all Westerners want to do is criticize and judge others; Western civilization is actually one of the few civilizations that has actively utilized its ideals of democratic rights and used them to foment dissent and internal collapse (USSR) in rival civilizations. This is a very, very effective tool indeed; sometimes I wonder if the lack of an ideology weakens China in this regard. China needs a serious neo-confucian revival (or some new, domestically generated philosophy) if it wants to win ideologically. If I were the CCP I’d be agonizing over this problem day and night. (of course, communism is a western ideology… but not totalitarianism.)

The world’s just a battlefield of ideas and capital nowadays. Nothing more, nothing less.

January 18, 2006 @ 5:59 pm | Comment

Hi t_co, I think we should make a distinction here. The culture of critiquing has sorted of worked for the West, no doubt. When Westerners practice this within their own “sphere,” the mental attitude is quite different from the one they have when they criticize non-whites. Deep down, there is always the issue of racial and cultural superiority at work. That’s just my observation after 15 years of living in the US.

I am all for critical self examination. But there is nothing that Westerners can see that Asians can’t. We need to get our act together for our own sake.

Try it. Try criticizing the West, and I am sure you would be snubbed. Ask yourself, how well does the US, for example, take international criticism? Think Guantanamo. Think Iraq.

January 18, 2006 @ 6:18 pm | Comment

One of the things that strikes me as being very interesting about the differences between India and China is that everyone who has ever traveled to India routinely will have many stories about the squalor and utter poverty encountered on the streets and yet in China this is so rare.

I think part of it may be a leftover impact of the strict class system in India, but I think overall this is something the Communists can take credit for.

January 18, 2006 @ 6:59 pm | Comment

Try criticizing the West, and I am sure you would be snubbed. Ask yourself, how well does the US, for example, take international criticism?

All depends on how you define “the US.” This US blogger, for instance, is very sympathetic to international criticism and echoes it frequently here, often wondering how most Americans seem oblivious to the world’s opinion that we are not the saintly, liberty-spreading angels Bush claims we are.

January 18, 2006 @ 7:12 pm | Comment

I think part of it may be a leftover impact of the strict class system in India, but I think overall this is something the Communists can take credit for.

I really would like to know the historical background of this. When was there squalor in the streets of China, and when did it improve? As to giving the CCP credit for erasing it, I’m not so sure.

Last thought: I suspect there was lots of squalor on the streets during the worst of the Great Leap Forward, as people dropped dead of starvation.

January 18, 2006 @ 7:18 pm | Comment

boran,

I don’t know if it is really as rare in China as you suggest. It is just much better hidden- I find China in general to be huge on image, and having your poor and desperate in full view of glitzy central cities isn’t so nice for marketing your ‘modernity’.

I’ve never been to India so I really can’t give an honest opinion, but I’ve definitely been through many areas of the PRC where the words “squalor” and “utter poverty” don’t seem too far off. Think huge swaths of central/western China, and many of these were NOT necessarily that remote.

Well, anyways, the India vs. China debate is sort of pointless, and often seems geared towards belittling India and its lack of breakneck growth-at-all costs obsession. Does India really need to follow China’s example? Probably not, it will go its own way.

January 18, 2006 @ 7:32 pm | Comment

I can’t argue with the descriptions of the squalor in India. I, too, haven’t been there, but friends I know from work who have gone there assure me, just like the Talk Talk China post, that the squalor, filth and general misery on the streets of even its most successful cities make China seem paradisiacal. Of course, they have only seen Shanghai and Beijing and Chengdu, so they may not realize there are parts of China where squalor is no stranger.

January 18, 2006 @ 7:50 pm | Comment

I’ve heard expats used to China come back from india appalled at how messy and dirty it is.

China_hand : yup, some countries can be labeled “bad”. Selling weapons to mass murderers is wrong, you can’t just say “Oooh, wre can’t judge others, how can you criticize me for selling gas chambers and torture instruments to that country ?”

January 19, 2006 @ 12:40 am | Comment

Tommy says: /// Let’s face it, not only will India have to work and invest a lot more to catch up with China, it also has to face the fact that it’s a sham of a democracy. I don’t care how many times people call the Indian democracy “the largest,” or the “most vibrant,” if they can’t get things done it’s a piece of dung. ///

Could you care to explain why Indian democracy is a sham? Or does airing insults represent the Chinese way of intelligent debate?

Do you seriously recommend China as a better model of freedom and democracy instead?

In India you’re free to call the prime minister a moron, you’re free to insult or oppose government policy, you’re free to throw out corrupt or incompetent politicians the next time there’s an election. You’re free to think for yourself – but, I guess, you have no idea what that is!

In China you’ll probably get chucked in a jail with the keys thrown away for any of the above.

If democracy in India were a sham, you wouldn’t see millions happily queueing for hours to cast their votes come the general elections.

You also say: /// Another psychological issues with India appears to be the extreme eagerness to please the West and the need to the loved by the West ///

That’s a bit rich coming from the Chinese! Why are so many Chinese students desperate to get to America or Britain or Australia – anywhere outside China – if that’s not so? And “Tommy” is a great Chinese name, I suppose!

When you have enough pride to use your own name – not those given to you by your former colonial masters – then we’ll have a proper chat about who’s more independent, “Tommy”.

Tut, tut….

January 19, 2006 @ 6:43 am | Comment

While I don’t like the angry tone of X’s comment, he/she does make a good point. It would be quite rich indeed for China to accuse another country/culture of being too eager to please/ be loved by the West.

I think you would be hard-pressed to find a place more obsessed with showing people, particularly Westerners, how ‘modern’ and ‘developed’ they are (this is speaking at a gov’t level of course, the average Chinese person I met on the street was always pretty down-to-earth about all the propaganda- except for the college kids!).

January 19, 2006 @ 8:44 am | Comment

Oh, well, concerning the point of India vs China, the past two decades have made it clear that China is way ahead. So there is no point arguing ad infinitum about this. Indian democracy is a dysfunctional one, an excuse for pompous proclamations with little action. This is also a democracy with the renowned caste system. All this is for the world to see, except perhaps some Indians.

I wil not comment further about the Indian phenomenon of aping the West as a serious impediment to their progress. If Indians don’t acknowledge it it’s their problem.

And no, I am not Chinese.

January 19, 2006 @ 11:22 am | Comment

The article sets up a very immature race to be the best. Sorry, but there is no “greatest nation” the same way there is no greatest individual. Your having the latest laptop or mp3 player does not make you better than me.

Having said that, it is important for India to get rid of its poverty and it is important for China to embrace democracy. Democracy is not just a fad. It is the common man’s right to be heard.

Tommy, I don’t know care what your race is, but you are stereotyping Indians as servants of the West. Am sure we can find plenty of existing stereotypes of your race, whatever it is. Give other nations/races the respect you want for your own. By the way, the Indian caste system does not impact its democracy any more than racism in the US impacts its democracy.

Pockets of poverty exist in the US and India (a lot more in India, of course), but in both those countries they have what people in China don’t: freedom. And freedom may not make a nation rich, but it makes it happy. For me, to be free is more important than to have the latest automobile. I’m sure it’s the same for people in China, too. China should encourage freedom of thought, speech, and religion.

I repeat: India needs to get rid of poverty (which is the mother of a lot of evils) and China needs to gain democracy (which is the mother of a lot of virtues). Doing this won’t make either one the greatest nation. It will just make their people happy and more peaceful.

January 19, 2006 @ 2:36 pm | Comment

I’ve been to india and china both for business.
Incidently those are the only countries outside North America i have been to.
I personaly liked working with indians better than chiese.
Indian firms were better in customer service and on IPRs.
The chinese firms however offer greater cost advantage on large volume assembly. However flexibility and speed was not there strong point.
My personal expereince was more +ve in india than china, however i was dealing with different segments of population in both countries.
So who is the next super power my money is still on US. Both are way behind!
India has edge in engineering services but those are a small % of population.
China has better infrastructure for manufacturing but poor IPR, testing, and still an unfriendly business environment.
I had a hard time getting approval from the chinese goverment over importing an item which was only to be used as a component for ultimate export. This caused a 3 week delay in production.
The business model there is not time sensitive but volume sensitive.
I keep reading reports coming from people who have never started a company or made business deals that claim that india or china will be next superpower. All that is hogwash.
Assembling trinkets or answering phonecalls will not make any country a superpower.
Also countries like japan, korea, and europe have workers who are more productive than indian or chinese. No one seems to factor that and are busy making superpower predictions
Bottom line both countries have a segments of poupulation that are doing better than before, but they have larger segments who are not doign well. And for the most part both wont be able to much about that in the short run.
My advice to business travelers.
Dont go to either india or china untill you have a clear product specification.
Dont ride in train in india stick to planes.
(trust me on this)
Dont think the chinese woman who is oggling you is interested in you.
Do hire an interpreter in china.
It may seem expensive but its not b/c clear communication is a must.

January 25, 2006 @ 9:35 am | Comment

I’ve been to India and China too. I think DeathValleyWanderer gives a great idea of the travel tips.

But DoctorRay, please don’t overvalue freedom to a poor country like India and China. India has 300 million and China has 100 million people under poverty line. Food is their most required than anything else. For you, to be free is more important than to have the latest automobile because you re not hungry. If you have chance to talk to the poor people you will learn which is the most important of all.

January 31, 2006 @ 1:50 pm | Comment

I think 2100 is far away and the race is too close to call it shots. A lot can happen (and will happen) in between. Democracy , no democracy , autocracy or whatever…the fundamental reason these two nations are shaking the west is because they at population giants. However important the other factors may be – at the end the population factor dominates over all. Thats what makes these two nation fundamentally different from Japan, other east and
SE Asian tigers, etc. Never in the history of earth have 2-billion+ people – all under just two flags- together dreamt of becoming prosperous.
If the population mass of China and more likely India were divided under many more flags , say like in africa, we wouldnt have had such a china vs india debate.

To generalise- from a econophysicist’s perspective -In any planet, once its dominant intelligent species reaches that point in time where distance no longer matters-be it in transport, communication, or whatever- with time the state(s) that survive with the biggest population masses will inevitably become the biggest. In our planet, at the moment we have 2 such nations- china and india. So long they keep surviving as the biggest nations, they will inevitably become the largest economic weights. Other factors (resource scarcity, bad governance,culture, etc) may slow the process by decades or centuries, but eventually economic weight will become proportional to population size.

After this whatever I am saying is mere wild speculation but I optimistically believe in it, because i believe in survival of humanity (basic instincts)-
Technology will keep making every kind of miracles a reality. The fast rise of asia -china, india, others and hopefully in long run of sub-saharan africa will create the severest (many times greater than ever in history) crunch in energy and other resources. It will become obvious that no large population mass can live at the same standards as in the developed world now. Environment will be the worst homo-sapiens have seen. Many will predict scenarios of doom, resource wars, end of civilization,etc. Some may even get close to happening. But we will keep becoming dependent on each other in practically every matter . However we try to blame each other, it will become increasingly difficult and inevitably impossible to segregate ourselves into us and they. Then will dawn – “global conciousness”. Maybe in 2100 we will be still debating west-east, china-india or whatever but just ~ 8-10 generation later global conciousness will prevail over all.

Thus in rise of china, india or any banana-istan for that matter, I dont just see the rise of another great power(s), but I also see creation of bigger catalysers. I think this conciousness is already, albiet slowly, seeping into europe. Slowly it will also seep into america, asia, africa and the rest of the world.

January 31, 2006 @ 5:41 pm | Comment

India and China are two giants in Asia. lots of comparable are made between them in different way:

Indian are trying best to focus on China’s weakness and try to prove china’s gloomy future only, negative comments about china are always welcomed in ndian’s media, it is so understandable why average indian are so puzzling at china’s development because most indian are dominated by negative comments on china which they get from their own media.

Chinese are focus on India’s strongpoint and trying to learn from them. postive comments about india are dominated in China’s media, it is not surprise why average Chinese are so puzzling at india’s slow development disproportional to their positive imaging on India which they get from Chinese media.

Perhaps it is india’s freedom of speech to bash china, and china’s oppress to positive india. ridiculous. Indian always underate about china and know nothing about China’s strenghthen due to their bias, and chinese are in contrast to overated India and know nothing about India’s weakness.

February 19, 2006 @ 11:03 pm | Comment

My conversation with a chinese
I met a chinese person in India. He was happy to tell me that he was from Sichuan. He was very pompous about China. Here is how our conversation went about:
Chinese: ” Mao is best leader in the world”.
Me : “May be. I think he was bit of jerk!”
Chinese: “What is jerk?”
Me rather bored: ” Where is Sichuan?”
Chinese: “Next to Hong Kong. Mao’s birth place was close to my province”
Me (yawn) : “So u like communism”
Chinese: ” Of course! China is best nation”
Me : “Why?”
Chinese : ” We have more money now.”
Me: ” Ohh! Why do you think so?”
Chi. (brainwashed by communists): ” Hu Jintao told us.”
Me: ” And you believed it? ”
Chin. : “Of course! People’s daily also reported it”.
Me ( cursing myself to deal with this guy):” Great! So you think that chinese are superior to americans.”
Chin.: “Of course!” (doesnot seem to know any other word like obvious::)) “We manufacture every thing. We are better than India”
Me (smiling) : ” Sure! We donot have that cheap labour!”
Chinese was very upset. but could not say so.
Me(sheepishly): ” Can you tell your govt. if it does something wrong?”
Chin. : “It never does anything wrong!”
(Perhaps Mao told him.).
Chin. : “Dalai Lama should be sent back to China”
Me (Surprised) : ” Why? Mao never loved him:)!”
Chin.:”Tibet is ours!”
Me : “Why ?”
Chinese mumbled about it being conquered by random Sung, Tang, Fung, Ming etc. dynasties.
Me (laughing): ” Even British conquered it. So, let it be given to Britain.”
Chinese was very unhappy now.
He showed such a lack of knowledge about world affairs. He was thoroughly brainwashed by communists. He didnot even know who the migrants workers were in China! Not only that he never heard about Sun Yat Sen! He didnot know 1962 war or Mao’s fault in cultural revolution. Forget about that, he doesnot even know that China is booming with a sex industry and soon is going to take over Thailand. What was worst was the fact that communism has got nothing to do with FDI! He still believes that CHinese are inventing every thing like ammunition, paper! This pathetic man told me that China has better universities than India when it comes to Management. He told me that chinese banks were better than
big banks like Citi bank, Deutsche bank! He even praised “one child policy” when I pointed that more female feutus are getting killed due to that! He showed lack of comprehension when I talked about the aging of the population. Nor did he agreed to the fact that so called chinese space ship is actually a russian one with chinese titles on it..:)! He doesnot even know that chinese missiles were stolen from US and Russian missiles. So, he should not boast about it.
I must say that I had a interesting conversation with HongXing with this Chinese. Can someone please educate this man about something called as reality?

February 25, 2006 @ 7:38 pm | Comment

My conversation with a chinese
I met a chinese person in India. He was happy to tell me that he was from Sichuan. He was very pompous about China. Here is how our conversation went about:
Chinese: ” Mao is best leader in the world”.
Me : “May be. I think he was bit of jerk!”
Chinese: “What is jerk?”
Me rather bored: ” Where is Sichuan?”
Chinese: “Next to Hong Kong. Mao’s birth place was close to my province”
Me (yawn) : “So u like communism”
Chinese: ” Of course! China is best nation”
Me : “Why?”
Chinese : ” We have more money now.”
Me: ” Ohh! Why do you think so?”
Chi. (brainwashed by communists): ” Hu Jintao told us.”
Me: ” And you believed it? ”
Chin. : “Of course! People’s daily also reported it”.
Me ( cursing myself to deal with this guy):” Great! So you think that chinese are superior to americans.”
Chin.: “Of course!” (doesnot seem to know any other word like obvious::)) “We manufacture every thing. We are better than India”
Me (smiling) : ” Sure! We donot have that cheap labour!”
Chinese was very upset. but could not say so.
Me(sheepishly): ” Can you tell your govt. if it does something wrong?”
Chin. : “It never does anything wrong!”
(Perhaps Mao told him.).
Chin. : “Dalai Lama should be sent back to China”
Me (Surprised) : ” Why? Mao never loved him:)!”
Chin.:”Tibet is ours!”
Me : “Why ?”
Chinese mumbled about it being conquered by random Sung, Tang, Fung, Ming etc. dynasties.
Me (laughing): ” Even British conquered it. So, let it be given to Britain.”
Chinese was very unhappy now.
He showed such a lack of knowledge about world affairs. He was thoroughly brainwashed by communists. He didnot even know who the migrants workers were in China! Not only that he never heard about Sun Yat Sen! He didnot know 1962 war or Mao’s fault in cultural revolution. Forget about that, he doesnot even know that China is booming with a sex industry and soon is going to take over Thailand. What was worst was the fact that communism has got nothing to do with FDI! He still believes that CHinese are inventing every thing like ammunition, paper! This pathetic man told me that China has better universities than India when it comes to Management. He told me that chinese banks were better than
big banks like Citi bank, Deutsche bank! He even praised “one child policy” when I pointed that more female feutus are getting killed due to that! He showed lack of comprehension when I talked about the aging of the population. Nor did he agreed to the fact that so called chinese space ship is actually a russian one with chinese titles on it..:)! He doesnot even know that chinese missiles were stolen from US and Russian missiles. So, he should not boast about it.
I must say that I had a interesting conversation with this chinese than HongXing had with an “Indian”. Can someone please educate this man about something called as reality?

February 25, 2006 @ 7:42 pm | Comment

No one can educate Hong Xing. He is a paid shill.

February 25, 2006 @ 8:16 pm | Comment

Y’know Y-Tang, I swear I’ve heard that somewhere before…

But anyway I don’t see how India is insulting China when 90% of the politicians are always harping on about imitating it.

The sincerest form of flattery and all that…

February 28, 2006 @ 10:39 am | Comment

Raorane, it’s very laughable reading your “conversation with a “Chinese””. Quite strange that you just met a person (stranger) on a street and had a long talk with him/her. Nice fiction story. HongXing’s story is much more beliavable than your story. And btw, let me mention some facts to correct your genius Indian brain. China’s rocket space may be Russian-inspired, but it’s made and designed in China (different net design from the Russian one). And Chinese missiles are completely indigeneous and not “stolen”. Why can’t Indians like you just accept reality that India is (for now) much more pathetic than China, needs to learn from China, and understand that it may take another 1000 years before India can even become China’s half equal. Democracy, and so-called “melting pot of many cultures” arguments Indians like to use are actually useless when it comes to economy. What one needs for booming economy is high savings rate, good and long-term government plan, better infrastructure, all of which exist in China but pathetic in India. I think the best investment for a better future for Indians like you is to start learning Chinese language.

July 1, 2006 @ 7:41 pm | Comment

I really believe that Indian government should take a tip or two from Chinese leadership on how to be foresighted, how to be effective. There is no harm or shame in learning from someone who is more pragmatic than us. We Indians need to be more realistic than boast of our so called achievements.

August 8, 2006 @ 11:36 pm | Comment

China and India have cultural ties dating back to thousands of years.

Average Chinese knows far less than what he should know about India and the same is true for an average Indian’s knowledge of China.

There is a natural cautiousness about each other due to the 1962 war. Before that Indians and Chinese often agreed on their international positions.

China has 940+ billions of dollar reserves and India has 160+ billion.

China has 6 to 7 times FDI.

It is indisputable that China has a greater advantage in infrastructure and it can deliver basic services (food, electricity, water, and roads/transportation) better to more of its people.

India’s democracy is not flimsy. It delivered a surprising (rude) result to the ruling BJP party in 2004 as BJP failed to take care of common man’s concerns.

India’s freedom is no an illusion. It is real. Freedom of press is ubiquitous. China has as a disadvantage in this regard.

China’s international image is stronger than India due to its behaviour. China does not talk nonsense or pander or appease to any so called powers; its greatest strength is its focus on economic and political pragmatism.

The old days of China and US being preachy to each other are gone.

China listens a lot, but does exactly what is good for its interests (e.g., it has not appeased the West by an upward reevaluation of its currency).

Indians are doing more so internationally recently, but they will be better off emulating more the Chinese.

India’s values are closer to the West, due its colonization by British, Portugese and others for 150 years. Yet, India, has and is developing more confidence in its independenece and its human capital.

Indians are more boastful than Chinese. Chinese do things quietly before without boasting.

The greatest advantage of India and China are their deep civilizational and religious roots and family tradition.

While, outwardly these countries are and can be westernized, their core values are essentially tied to their past: respect for elders, respect for family, deep respect for education, deep respect for hard work and deep respect for struggle to better family positon and status and committment to honor the family and community.

While the West is moving fast in science, India and China (and others in Asia) are moving faster in these areas. They have started slow and at a low base but they are catching up.

Had it not for China’s strange and crazy friendship with Pakistan, India and China could trust each other more and be much closer partners.

Other than 1962, there have been no wars between China and India. In mediaviel times, China and India had some very serioius cultural exchanges that still are remembered fondly by both. India gave China Buddhism and other ideas. Chinese and Indians had higher respect for each other fbefore and during the Silk Road days. Those days can be revived.

Finally, both India and China’s strength lies in their civilizational, cultural, intellectual and religious assets. These are deeply proud people.

One more thing, India is not as homogeneous a China. India is amalgation of 30+ diffirent little countries with their own languages, religions, cultures, and customs. Even then, Indians are fast getting a national identity through mobility, intermarraige and geographic movement (and of course, the common language of English). India’s progress in democracy and economy is commndable when you consider that lits eaders are really managing a federation of 30+ different countries.

Both China and India would do good in Western eyes, if they reduced corruption, red tape and develloped stronger justice systems.

India and Indian diaspora are following “Jewish” model, whereas China and its expats are following “industrial revolution version 2.0” of the Wwest through strength in manufacturing.

August 13, 2006 @ 5:03 pm | Comment

jayant i think you got one fact awfully wrong. The chinese are as heterogeneous as the Indians. What you know as the Hans or Mnadarin(one of the many dialects) do not in reality represent the entire population.
The whole idea that The Chinese are homogenous is again one of the propaganda stunts of the government.

Anyways, I wouldnt like to ge into this seemingly endless debate about which of the two is greater! its futile. but yes, I would definitely want the two to pair up and shake off the West (read US-Blair) view of what peace and development should look like.

Its unlikely, but one can always dream… Chindia would be a great idea!!!

August 14, 2006 @ 3:01 pm | Comment

I like what Shabbir writes (Aug 14th 2006).

I’m Indian, born and brought up there. I live in a small country with a majority Chinese population and face constant racism and Indian/other minority bashing (figuratively) from the Chinese population. The Chinese here do believe they are a superior race (to everyone, not just Indians). The Chinese populations in the Asia Pacific belt generally do think that way. I have reason to believe main land Chinese are a lot better in their attitude as I’ve been there several times and met many of them. But I do fear as they become affluent and powerful, coupled with strong governments brainwashing them into believing in total supremacy, they will treat the world like the majority (or richer minority) Chinese treat other races in my current country and countries around it. Sort of reminiscient of Hitlers idealogy, the superior race. However, history has demonstrated the obvious end to such an attitude on a micro or macro level, is ruin. No one country or force can be dominant AND arrogant about it, the rest of the world won’t allow it, never has, never will. From Alexander the Great to the more recent British empire, neutralization of absolute power is an inevitable end. Its unwritten and intangible but an unequivocal law that seems to govern our universe. The proud and arrogant bully can never sustain that position, inevitably he will be brought to his knees and taught humility, by internal or external forces, such is life.
“With great power comes great responsibility”, show me humility and unclouded good intentions, I will show you real power. The two are married, one begets the other, neither will exist without the other. Show me arrogance and force, I will show you an empty shell.
Living constantly amongst xenophobic and arrogant Chinese people looking down at minorities, refusing to mix with any other race, im going to take this opportunity and say a few things about India which a lot of people seem to forget or ignore because of the current dismal figures in comparison with China.
Right now China is miles ahead of India and has a good chance of staying there for the next 20yrs.
After that India will probably take over and stay ahead of any country for a long time.
The reasoning is as follows:
1) Smart people, terrible government. Its the only developing country which produces so many professionals who are or were at the apex of the worlds biggest companies, Pepsi, Standard Chartered, Mc.Kinsey and many more. Mittal steel is the worlds biggest steel company. Mr.Bose of Bose speakers and systems is an Indian. India has several REAL private limited companies with a turnover over a billion US dollars. Private domestic airlines which have won ‘best domestic carrier in the world awards’ (Jet Airways). China does not have a private airline or is just launching its first. Which company in China is really private limited, ie: no direct or indirect support from the government in the form of ‘free’ loans, subsidies etc. Several world famous authors are Indian or of Indian descent, Vikram Seth (1994 Commonwealth Writers Prize, Overall Winner, Best Book for ‘A Suitable Boy’, Salman Rushdie, Arundhati Roy (booker prize for God of small Things), Amrtya Sen (Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences (sometimes referred to informally as the “Nobel Prize for Economics”) to name just a few.
Despite its poor record of rights for women, the country has had the maturity to vote in female prime ministers time and again, starting almost a generation ago which is more than can be said of a lot of developed countries. The current prime minister and president belong to minority groups, Sikh and Muslim. It does host the worlds 2nd largest Muslim population after Indonesia. If the Muslims were really so unhappy in India, the Muslim population would have seriously dwindled in the last 60yrs since independance, which is not the case. The country did produce people like Gandhi and mother Teresa, though of Macedonian descent, was in part considered Indian. Budhism, Yoga, Ayurveda and Kung Fu did come out of India. Yes, Kung Fu too. Hotmail, the worlds first web based e-mail service was co-founded by an Indian (Sabeer Bhatia). India was also a major contributor in conceptualising the numerical zero thereby vastly expanding the scope of calculations and serving as a base for modern mathematics.
Democratic India is only 60 years old, thats a drop in the lifetime of a nation. At least the road she has taken is the correct one, there won’t be any need to re-trace her steps unlike what happened in Russia and inevitably will happen in China. The 7/8% growth rate is DESPITE terrible infrastructure and a succession of completely unsupportive governments. Imagine what it would be with better infrastructure, less red tape, a supportive government. It is only a matter of time when India will have good infrastructure, the current government isn’t too bad either, it will get a lot better though.
The young population, massive work force and number of graduates will be a decisive advantage in 10yrs time as will the sound banking system and democratic values of the country. India does produce more engineers than China and Japan put together. The net worth of its USD billionaires is the highest in Asia, beating Japan into 2nd place. Its educational institutions are world class, the IIM’s and IIT’s as admitted by Premier Wen Jiabo during his visit to India. After the Jews, Indians are the richest community in the US with the highest number of graduates, way ahead of the Chinese. Very recently in Australia too, Indians have surpassed the Chinese and Koreans.
Sorry for the boasts, its usually not my style but im just defending my race and people who are constantly belittled in this part of the world. I?m also setting the record straight about our achievements. There’s more to this land and its people than just poor infrastructure and poverty.
Another favourite in this part of the world, democracy bashing. Yes, it does cause chaos in the short term but definitely acts as a stabiliser in the long run. I hope nobody thinks absolute power in the hands of a communist government is a better alternative, even if it yields much faster short term results by trampling over human rights. And converting from communism to democracy is no walk in the park, as the Russians discovered. It won’t be a smooth transition however much I and everyone may wish it for China. A democratically elected government and its Billion people will have to learn to respect the voice of dissent, manifested in the form of street protests, strikes, independant judiciary, court cases upon cases, civil suites, agitating minority groups, racial and religious discord, free press……the list goes on and unfortunately there is no quick fix to convert from Communism to Democracy, the painful learning curve that India and every other democratic country has and is going through is essential. Differences of opinion with the government settled fairly and amicably and not just brutally quashed is essential for the confidence of people. All this is part and parcel of any free and democratic country. Part and parcel of human nature, if you will. Irrepressible.
More importantly, the Chinese need to replace the current sense of xenophobic and crude nationalism instilled by governments with something more substantial to identify themselves with, perhaps a more wholesome sense of identity not based on an idealogy of racial superiority.
Some months ago, there was a report/survey on BBC about what people of different countries thought about the impact their own and other countries had on the world. Interestingly though not surprisingly, India was the only country that rated itself at less than 50% while every other country rated itself at around 70% positive. Look at all the blogs, lots of Indians critising India. I think its good, I think its healthy and I think its modest. Indians are always happier to mix with the foreigner, I like that too. It keeps the country open and objective, self criticism is essential, this nature of ours puts in place a very important system of checks and balances. It allows Indians to objectively build businesses and relationships based on sound reasoning rather than national or racial identity, unbiased while choosing business partners, friends etc. In the long term, this will help Indians, help the country to spread its influence and network on an individual and grassroots level and not just governments getting into bed with each other for short term gains. This xenophobic behaviour seems to characterise the oriental races and we see what it did to Japans economy for 12 years. There is nothing wrong in mixing with the ‘foreigner’, the sooner the people of this planet learn to work together and dissolve man made borders as much as possible, the better and easier it will be to survive in the face of an ever increasing climatic threat borne from the excesses of the industrial revolution.

September 12, 2006 @ 2:55 am | Comment

I was laughing at the nonsence generated by Chinese people who are so much disillusioned about themselves that they froget the reality about themselves and their culture.

Ok China is 10000 years ahead of India so How does it make any difference to me, no way, I live in India and have access to the best technology and luxries in the world because I have Money- remember if you are among 800 million Chinese who are below poverty line you will never able to enjoy life only think and dream about it just like billions of poor around the globe, you work hard educate yourself and get a white collar job and you will have everything on your doorsteps – so don’t waste your time-Life is short- Good luck!!

September 16, 2006 @ 1:51 am | Comment

I was laughing at the nonsence generated by Chinese people who are so much disillusioned about themselves that they froget the reality about themselves and their culture.

Ok China is 10000 years ahead of India so How does it make any difference to me, no way, I live in India and have access to the best technology and luxries in the world because I have Money- remember if you are among 800 million Chinese who are below poverty line you will never able to enjoy life only think and dream about it just like billions of poor around the globe, you work hard educate yourself and get a white collar job and you will have everything on your doorsteps – so don’t waste your time-Life is short- Good luck!!

September 16, 2006 @ 1:53 am | Comment

The best indians are outside india. The best chinese are outside china. It is an excellant survival choice for an Indian or a Chinese person to get out of his/ her country fast.

October 19, 2006 @ 6:51 pm | Comment

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