Who Kerry won and who bush won

Andrew has some good insights.

Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how’d Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 — a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base.

There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn’t pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out – but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP’s weak spot is that they aren’t winning over the young; and that they won’t have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work.

Could any Democrat have done better than Kerry? He won the liberals and the moderates. He won the youth vote. Was there a way he could have won those who believe abortion is murder and that gay marriage threatens civilized society? How do you win these people over when the sensitive wedge issues — guns, abortion, gay marriage — dominate their thinking, and the believe bush is on the side of God? I don’t know, and I don’t know what the Dems can do about this come 2008. These emotional triggers, used to such brilliant effect by Republicans, are so insidious, so divisive, I wonder if they might not leave us permanently polarized….

The Discussion: 2 Comments

I think any Democrat could have done better than Kerry. Let’s face it. He’s a complete megalomaniac who thinks that the world should follow him no matter what. I mean he sent Lawyers to Florida in a preemptive strike of the vote there and then ran them over to Ohio as fast as possible. My thought it this. If you overuse lawyers for such things and send them out in what Kerry called SWAT teams it shows you have no faith in those who are voting nd you know you’re going to lose.

November 3, 2004 @ 4:46 pm | Comment

What makes you think that was megalomaiancal? After Florida 2000, I suspect this was agreed upon by most of the Demoratic Party’s inner circle. And kerry’s concession was anything but megalomaniacal; he was a total gentleman and didn’t demand endless recounts, as a megalomaniac would have.No matter who the Dems put up to run, Rove would have found something with which to destroy him. Most of Kerry’s campaign was about dispelling the flip-flop and Swift Boat shit. Tragic.

November 3, 2004 @ 4:55 pm | Comment

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