I was lucky to see John Pomfret, former bureau chief of the Washington Post’s Beijing office, address a group in Scottsdale last week. I was scribbling notes the whole time and now I’m finally going to decipher them. I was also lucky to spend some time with John afterwards at a local bar with my first cousin, who was John’s friend at Stanford. (Sorry, but I promised not to blog about our conversation at the bar.)

I always thought John was the best of the Beijing correspondents, followed by Joseph Kahn. John is now moving to Los Angeles, where he’ll be the new WaPo bureau chief. (His replacement in Beijing, Phillip Pan, is also doing an awesome job.) What I liked most about John was his honesty and courage. More than any other foreign correspondent in China, he wrote about the really controversial issues — Ma Shiwen, evictions of peasants who were thrown on the street, the SARS ambulance story (which he broke) — he wasn’t afraid to say what the government was doing and how bad some of those things really were.

That same honesty permeated his talk in front of an ultra-conservative group of lizardy gazillionaire businessmen.

“The longer I lived in China,” he began, “the less I came to believe China is really a great nation in the making.”

Now, I have to make it clear that he was not in any way slamming China. He was setting the stage for explaining just how tough China’s problems are, and that Westerners, immersed in romantic depictions from starry-eyed visitors, have no idea what kind of challenges China is facing.

This was at the heart of Pomfret’s talk: the West badly misunderstands China’s economic, medical, political, social and environmental hurdles. He was particularly emphatic that there is no need for the West to fear China becoming a global superpower along the lines of the USA. “Not all of China�s dreams are going to be achieved because hard-wired into their DNA are serious constraints that will keep China from becoming what it aspires to. Most of China is a third-, fourth- and fifth-world country” under constant threat from unimaginable poverty, so many people to employ, AIDS, a devastated environment, etc.

Last year the number of people living below the poverty line in China grew by some 800,000 people, he said, at the time of the nation’s great economic miracle. The wealth gap is simply too staggering for most Westerners to envision. He said one way China is trying to offset the people’s anger is by inciting nationalism (an old trick in China, used to masterful effect by Deng after Tiananmen Square).

“But the nationalism we are seeing is only skin-deep,” Pomfret said. “Michael Jordan retired is more popular among Chinese citizens than Yaoming. All the Chinese young people want to work for US companies and own US goods.” They know their futures and their salaries will be far more limited at a state-owned business, he said.

He later repeated his metaphor when he said “serious constraints are hard-wired into the Chinese DNA and the Chinese political, economic and social system that could stop China’s meteoric rise.” The major constraint, he made it clear, is corruption, which seems to make things work in the short term, but which could help unravel China’s great success over the long term. He praised this success again and again, but said the CCP is caught in a conundrum of failing to address how a single party can control absolutely everything when absolutely everything is changing right underneath its feet.

I was surprised at just how hopeless Pomfret views so many issues in China. For example, when someone asked about Chinese-Japanese relations, he described it as a “Gordian knot with no solution in sight. Relations between them won’t get better anytime soon, but there won’t be any war.” He added that the CCP uses this issue to unify the country, appealing to the masses’ raw emotions.

He also echoed a point that several bloggers have made, namely that the war on terror has been “a windfall” for China in every way. “From the Chinese perspective, it diverted the attention of those Republicans who saw the PRC as a competitor and a threat, and it focused them instead on the Middle East. Now China can crack down on radical Islam in Xinjiang and Americans don’t say anything. There will be many more executions — the Chinese will just crush these people.”

Contrary to the article in the Atlantic I linked to Friday, Pomfret say relations between Taiwan and China won’t degenerate into war. “The US won’t let Chen Sui Bian go too far off the rail. China understands that the key to Taiwan’s not declaring independence is Washington. And China uses the issue to win hearts and minds at home. In a way, it benefits from the continual bad relations.”

He was critical, too, of the CCP’s treatment of HK, but most of you know the story so I won’t write down all he said. Money quote: “They’ve given a lot of benefits to Hong Kong on the economic side, playing to the people’s love of money. But in the long-term, the conflict is an ominous development. Now, China is a potential enemy to Hong Kong, when before [HK protested] they were considered a friend.”

China’s military is another example of Westerners seeing more than is really there, John said. “It has pockets of excellence, including great missile technology, but all in all it is still a middling power.” He added that any invasion of Taiwan would be all but impossible, if only because of Taiwan’s lack of beaches. “It would end up being a million-man swim…Many military people say that China is nowhere near ready to threaten Taiwan. There’s huge military spending, but in terms of bang for the buck, what they’ve got just isn’t that significant.”

This was in many ways a sad talk. What China dreams of being simply isn’t coming anytime soon and probably not ever. “They want to be seen as a great country, as a good country….but I am a cautious pessimist.” He didn’t say China was going to fail or crash — just that it’s ultimate dreams would elude it, made impossible by a harsh reality that in many ways the one-party system only exacerbates.

John made it clear how outraged he is over Joseph Kahn’s assistant in Beijing being thrown in jail for 6 to 10 years for his alleged involvement in the NY Times’ story on Jiang’s imminent resignation (which came out days before the official announcement). “He wasn’t even involved in Kahn’s story, but they don’t care about things like that. They just wanted to teach the Times a lesson.”

While critical of the CCP, John also says that under the circumstances he doesn’t know how they could do things any better than they’re doing now — but only because they created the situation in which there’s no alternative. That’s an important point: “They completely smashed the opposition so there’s no one in the wings who could replace them. If any new voice were to arise, it could be an even uglier one that what they’ve got now.” He was a war correspondent in Bosnia, and he compared China’s political situation to Yugoslavia under Tito, where one strong man crushed all the opposition and held the country together through brute force. Once he was gone, it all disintegrated.

Last of all, when asked what the Chinese now believe in, John said, “Chinese students have told me they simply have no beliefs. They have less respect for the family than earlier generations. Will there be a renaissance during which the youth of China rediscover their traditional values? I don’t see it. So many people in China live to rip other people off — this takes place on such a huge level, it’s scary. One has to worry that China is a society devoid of values.”

Yes, it was a sad talk, and there was little to celebrate. Maybe I’ll take hope in that he didn’t say China is doomed to defeat or that it will all come crashing down — only that its vision of itself doesn’t jibe with reality, and that its opportunities are more limited than they’ve led themselves to believe. And with that, I have to sadly agree.

Update: By the way, this all ties in with a good article in yesterday’s Guardian on why China’s roaring markets still don’t in and of themselves make it a great superpower. It’s really quite amazing — the author makes so many of the points Pomfret did. Thanks to the reader who alerted me. I can’t recommend it enough.

Update 2: With this post, a new commenter joined this blog named Mark Anthony Jones, and he comments at great length below. It was frustrating to later learn that literally all of his comments were cut and pasted from articles he found using Google searches. My apologies for all of those who were made fools of.

I just booked my tickets. It’s been my dream for more than four years to travel through Yunnan province, and I’ll arrive in Kunming on March 3 for a two-week trip. (If anyone has any suggestions on where I should go, please tell me now — I’m going to start booking my hotels soon.)

I had mapped out the exact same trip in 2003, but unfortunately it was scheduled for that terrible time, April/May 2003, when all travel through rural China was stopped because of SARS. I’ll never forget, being the only tourist in Xi’An going to see the Terra Cotta Warriors. SARS shut China down like a clamshell. I made it as far as Guilin, and finally left the country in despair when I was told the highway to Lijiang had been sealed.

Here’s to hoping I have better luck this go-round. The idea of going back makes me absolutely thrilled, even if it’s only two weeks.

But it sure seems slow and more than a little screwed up. Let’s hope it gets fixed soon. At least we know it’s not being blocked by the cybernanny.

Update: Sorry, it’s down again.

There’s a funny piece over at Danwei on how a new Chinese condom is being marketed. The article also points to a new survey by condom maker Durex that indicates the Chinese are very busy when it comes to personal pleasure.

Durex 2004 Global Sex Survey showed the Chinese have the most per capita sexual partners as 19.3, while with the most gloomy sex ardour.

Each Chinese has on average 19.3 partners toping the sex league table where an worldwide average number is just 10.5, according to the world’s biggest condom maker, Durex.

Paradoxically, the survey says the Chinese rank quite low compared to other countries when it comes to sex drive (7th lowest in the world!). Go figure….

There is a somewhat disturbing article in the unlinkable Atlantic titled “Straits-Jacket,” and it could lead you to wonder whether war between China and Taiwan is all but written in the stars. (The article can’t be linked, but you can find a PDF of it here.)

Like most articles in the Atlantic, it’s dense and substantive and serious. That said, I’m not sure I buy the premise of its writer, Trevor Corson.

He starts by telling how China has benefitted in every way from America’s war on terror, especially in the sense that it’s diverted the neocons’ attention away from one of their pet obsessions — villifying China and actively seeking conflict with it. And he points out how at least in economic terms, relations between Taiwan and China are good — but there could be trouble in paradise.

To some, these developments suggest that time is on the side of a peaceful solution to the problem of Taiwan’s disputed status. But the reality may be quite the opposite. In fact, a number of analysts in both America and East Asia believe that military conflict between China and Taiwan is not only likely but imminent. Just how imminent depends partly on the Taiwanese legislative elections scheduled for December 11. If pro-independence parties gain a majority in the legislature, the stage will be set for a confrontation, producing a hellish prospect for U.S. foreign policy: on top of its ongoing military commitment in the Middle East, the United States may face a Chinese attack against Taiwan, a fragile democracy that America has promised to help protect.

On some level, of course, the idea that China would actually attack Taiwan—rather than merely threaten to do so, as it has for years—makes no sense. Attacking would invite a military response from the United States, and even without American intervention, it’s not clear that China’s military is up to the task of seizing the island. China would also risk losing the trade relationships that drive its economic growth.

Nevertheless, the threat of a Chinese attack has loomed over Taiwan since at least 1972, when China’s Premier Zhou Enlai, in negotiations with Richard Nixon, refused to renounce the use of force against the island.

He goes into the history of Taiwan-PRC relations, the military considerations and, of course, Chen Sui Bian’s posturing for independence. Still, I never feel he makes the case as to why analysts believe war is imminent.

The most interesting aspect is the reporter’s rather unorthodox but simple solution to the entire mess: let Taiwan fight it out.

The fact that Taiwan has matured into a prosperous democracy suggests a solution, albeit a radical one: let the island defend itself. In 1998 a Cato Institute analysis proposed that the United States withdraw its pledge to protect Taiwan; in exchange it would lift all restrictions on arms sales, allowing Taiwan to buy the weapons necessary to deter a Chinese attack. This course would require delicate diplomacy, because it would infuriate both Taiwan and China: Taiwan would lose its security guarantee, and China would face a new Taiwanese arms buildup.

Bereft of American protection, however, Taiwan would be forced to face the consequences of upsetting the status quo. The immediate result would be a dramatic reduction in China’s political fears, thus removing the incentive for a pre-emptive strike and buying both sides some time to move toward a peaceful solution. For Taiwan and its supporters in Washington, the idea may sound like a betrayal. But the best way to help Taiwan mature into a full-fledged democracy might simply be to ask its people to take responsibility for their actions.

Now that’s a radical thought.

It’s been quite a while since China was involved in a newsworthy “international incident.” Could this be the next big incident?

Japan took up with China the issue of a suspicious submarine that intruded into its waters amid alarm in Tokyo that the vessel was a show of strength from its neighbour and growing competitor….

The submarine spent about two hours in Japanese waters Wednesday near the southern island of Okinawa before being chased on the high seas by two Japanese destroyers and a surveillance plane.

Both countries have been cautious in identifying the nationality of the submarine. If confirmed as Chinese the incident is expected to damage already sour diplomatic relations between the Asian powers….

The Sankei Shimbun called the submarine an “alarming sign” and suspected China wanted to show its military might to Japan, the United States and Taiwan, where support has been growing for a declaration of independence from Beijing.

“It is unlikely that China will come forward to reveal the submarine’s nationality and purposes,” said the daily, which is sympathetic to Taiwan.

“But if it was aimed to demonstrate the (Chinese) presence to Japan and the United States as well as Taiwan,” the Sankei said, “the objective seems to have been fully achieved.”

Developing…

(And thanks to the emailer for the link.)

God love him. This is a letter he wrote to our president; no wonder Bob Jones University is renowned worldwide for its tolerance, compassion and love.

In your re-election, God has graciously granted America—though she doesn’t deserve it—a reprieve from the agenda of paganism. You have been given a mandate.

….Don’t equivocate. Put your agenda on the front burner and let it boil. You owe the liberals nothing. They despise you because they despise your Christ. Honor the Lord, and He will honor you.

….Undoubtedly, you will have opportunity to appoint many conservative judges and exercise forceful leadership with the Congress in passing legislation that is defined by biblical norm regarding the family, sexuality, sanctity of life, religious freedom, freedom of speech, and limited government. You have four years—a brief time only—to leave an imprint for righteousness upon this nation that brings with it the blessings of Almighty God.

Now, where is Bob Jones University located? I forget….

Via Kevin.

Update: Poorman points out that Jones has infinitely more praise for shrub than for the pope, beginning a letter he wrote in 1978 with the line,

Pope Paul VI, archpriest of Satan, a deceiver and an anti-Christ, has, like Judas, gone to his own place.”

Wow.

Okay, Update No. 2: I just got an email from a reader:

I have an online friend who attended BJU for one semester before dropping out (she left the university, got into a car accident, suffered severe brain damage and ended up homeless… and her family laughed at her, telling her it was God’s will because she left BJU.) Anyway, she writes good stories about the weirdness of BJU from time to time, and just posted one a few days ago.

Be sure to visit that site! Here’s how the post starts:

This is the building the “dating parlor” is in at Bob Jones University. Yes, that is where you go if you are on a date or are studying with your boyfriend or girlfriend (they must be of the opposite sex and their skin color must match yours). There are people there to supervise you and make sure that you have no physical contact. There is a 6″ rule. you must be 6 inches apart at all times. They sit and stare into each others eyes for hours. That is all. how romantic is that???? It’s sick. and it’s a real weird feeling to walk into a room and have a dozen people staring at each other in the eyes. You cant touch each other because touching leads to hugging which leads to kissing which leads to sex. Sex is bad unless you are using it to reproduce little fundies.

Thank you, emailer!

I can’t believe this has anything to do with Jesus’ vision of what Christianity should be. It’s a puritan American aberration, a sickness that flies in the face of nature and being human.

What a strange world. The famous and successful writer-journalist was only 36 years old, and today she shot herself in the head. I read Rape of Nanking when it came out and was impressed with its thoroughness. Her latest book, The Chinese in America: A Narrative History, wasn’t well received, at least not in the reviews I read.

These stories keep reminding me that we all have problems, even the rich and the famous. It’s easy to forget.

Danwei says it’s due to the machinations of the cybernanny, but why should it be blocked in the US? I’ve been trying to log on for two days, to no avail. If it’s China’s doing and not some technical glitch, it’ll be a shame. Despite my problems with the way LiC has been managed, it’s still a great resource. Or was…?

On my own site, my site meter was down for nearly four hours yesterday, inexplicably, wiping out my traffic averages. I’ll have to think of a way to get it back up; I should be coming out with a killer story on China any time now, as soon as i get the energy to write it down. Stay tuned.

Very refreshing. Watch the clip.