Good news — Taiwan can withstand attack by China

For two weeks, that is.

Taiwan could withstand an attack from China for two weeks, military sources told the China Times, in comments seen aimed at assuaging fears raised by a computer simulation showing that Taipei could be captured in six days.

Tensions have been running high in the Taiwan Strait as China prepares for a possible military showdown, convinced Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian will push for formal statehood during his second term.

Both sides are holding their annual war games, with China — which views the island as a renegade province — staging mock-invasion drills and Taiwan pretending to fend off an attack.

A computer-simulated exercise showed China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could take the island’s capital in just six days, Taiwan media reported on Wednesday.

But the mass-circulation China Times quoted “authoritative military sources” as saying the computer had made certain assumptions — such as no help from the United States — and it did not mean Taiwan would be defeated so quickly.

“The sources indicate, in the event of a ‘first strike’, the air force and navy can preserve of their fighting capabilities while the army can maintain 80 percent of its fighting capabilities,” the newspaper said.

“Under these circumstances, Taiwan can hold on for two weeks in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait.”

Military experts say China is accelerating its arms build-up in preparation for war, but the PLA still lacks sophisticated amphibious vessels to turn its 2.5-million-strong army into a credible invasion force.

Furthermore, the expectation is that Washington would meet its treaty obligation and come to Taiwan’s rescue, either through diplomatic pressure on China, intelligence aid or actual combat assistance, analysts say.

If it’s any consolation, the computer simulation also shows China would suffer “huge casualties” if it goes the invasion route. Somehow I don’t think that’s going to be a major factor if and when the CCP decides it needs to invade.

The Discussion: 40 Comments

If Taiwan survives for two weeks, then TAiwan survives, because that is more than enough time for US forces to arrive, even without any advance warning.

August 12, 2004 @ 8:50 pm | Comment

When you look at the actual simulation, the predicate of no US intervention is actually quite reasionable given the times involved.

According to US sources, a fleet response plan would take about 30 days to assemble 7 of America’s 12 carrier groups to defend Taiwan, so unless they were already steaming towards Taiwan the wouldn’t reach it in time.

I know that the US Kitty Hawk is (or was, last time I heard) billited in Yokosuka Japan, but then so do the Chinese and they would no doubt deploy submarines or mine layers to deter close involvement from the Kitty Hawk and its support ships, this would also slow down the carrier groups who would have to run behind anti submarine vessels, and would force initial US acticvities to be made at long range using air to air refueling or guided missiles for any initial strikes.

US rules of engagement also preclude high risk for expensive equippment (including pilots) this could further slow down any substantial responce to 35-40 days even with the Kitty Hawk already in situe.

August 12, 2004 @ 8:54 pm | Comment

Isn’t there a really big US airbase on Okinawa? Isn’t Okinawa close enough to serve as a surrogate aircraft carrier while the real carriers are on their way?

August 12, 2004 @ 10:28 pm | Comment

ACB:

Sorry, and this isn’t meant to be insulting, but you don’t know anything about naval warfare or US capabilities.

7 carrier groups?!? The US plans to defend Taiwan not obliterate the better part of Asia. The Chinese navy has no, repeat, no, over the horizon combat capability. A US carrier group can stand off Taiwan and engage the Chinese surgace fleet with impunity. As for Chinese submarines, US submarine capabilities are almost immeasurably suprior to the Chinese and there are attack subs a boomers in the area every day. There is very little chance of a Chinese attack submarine inflicting material damage on a US carrier group under combat operations. It would require exceptional luck by China or an extraordinary blunder by the US.

And as for it taking 30 days to respond? Not a chance.

And as for US rules of engagement precluding “high risk for expensive equipment” let me assure you that, when the US engages China, they will “fight the group” which means every asset available will be full committed. Combat with China ain’t Kosovo.

Finally, a Chinese attack on Taiwan is guranteed to draw a US response. US interests simply could not stand its abandonment anymore than China could stand it’s declaration of independence.

August 12, 2004 @ 11:22 pm | Comment

I agree with Conrad’s military assessment but not the political one – the US will not come to Taiwan’s aid, regardless of which party wins the election. The fact is US interest in China overrides its concerns for Taiwan. Yes, if the so-feared invasion ever occurs, the US will make the usual noises, maybe impose an economic sanction for a while, and then (before the French, Germans and yes, the US’ best pal the British, get in first) it’ll be back to business as usual.

Sorry to be so cynical about the ‘champion of democracy’. I am inclined to believe in a ‘champion of US interests’.

Changing landscape now – what about China just raining several hundred (or even a few thousand) medium range missiles on selected military and strategic spots (electrical grids, communication infrastructure, etc) on Taiwan, without taking any coordinated steps to launch an amphibious assault?

August 13, 2004 @ 1:47 am | Comment

It’s not the US interest in Taiwan per se that will force it to intervene. It’s the fact that the US would lose all influence in Asia, which is vitally important, if its allies (Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Philippines, THailand, etc.) see that an alliance with the US cannot be relied upon.

Those countries would either (A) scamble to come to an accomodation with China (including distancing themselves fron the US and reducing US basing and port-call rights) or (B) go nuclear (almost certainly true of Japan).

Neither outcome A or B is tolerable to the US or good for world peace and stability. As undesirable as a war with China would be, the US would win it and the Chinese governent would fall as a result. That is a better result than the other possibilities.

August 13, 2004 @ 3:44 am | Comment

The alliance with Japan and Korea has its raison d’etre in the Cold War, but the Cold War is well and truly dead. The current ideology is, in Deng’s words, “It’s glorious to be rich”. Capitalism rules!

Thus, today these two countries, while still prefering strong ties with the US, are more prepared to cut off strings. Together with Singapore, they are more interested in trade with and access to US markets more than anything. If they have to kowtow to the US to gain favoured access to her markets, like Singapore does, so be it as the US market continues to be the most lucrative.

But if the US abandons Taiwan tomorrow, there won’t be many tears or fears, for the reason that they know only Taiwan represents a special case in China’s national pride. China is not the old feared dragon of yesterday – in fact China offers an alternative market to the US – highly attractive and possibly (one day) even more lucrative than the US’.

A sensible China will coexist with its neighbours, even Taiwan, for regional stability and prosperity, provided the Island remains quiet about any independence.

Everyone, including the US and Taiwan know this. that’s why Taiwan under Chen is frantic, fearing that it is being slowly forgotten and “surrendered” to the Mainland. Hence, Chen tries to set his agenda, intending to force the issue on the US, particularly in a presidential election year.

Certainly the idea of a nuclear Japan is frightening – in this I agree with Conrad. In the words of Lee Kuan Yew, “A Japan that is strongly armed just does not know how to handle herself” (or words to that effect).

How will China react to a Japan arming herself with N-weapons? I fear even to think of it. China has not forgotten a brutal military Japan. Its current trump card is its N-superiority, but a N-Japan means that China will lose that edge, resurrecting old fears. Will she launch a N-preemptive strike?

However, I think it will have to be a very right wing Japanese govt who would go down that path. There is no need to, in a post Cold War situation. Besides, as I mentioned before, China does not have or will in the foreseeable future, a naval and amphibious force capable of launching a credible invasion.

August 13, 2004 @ 5:18 am | Comment

Jacky, I’ve said it before, and I’m saying it again … your views are not just misguided, they’re actively dangerous if mainland China believes it too. There isn’t a shadow of a chance USA wouldn’t respond. You want a lesson in asians misreading Americans? Go and read about Japanese war planning before WWII … which was entirely based upon a complete misunderstanding of how USA would respond. There is a really scary resemblance between the crap the Japanese were talking in the 30s and the crap that is talked in China today, about how USA will behave, and the kind of sacrifices and expense USA is willing to suffer.

August 13, 2004 @ 6:50 am | Comment

Much as I like Jackie, I gotta go with FSN9 on this one. No way the US would sit back and say to China, “No problem — invade away!” That would be the end of our credibility in Asia, and the uproar among US citizens. conservatives and liberals, would be staggering. Many on the right still call it “Red China” and they see it as the Antichrist; and these people, for better or worse, still carry lots of political weight. The Pentagon would go apoplectic, as it would underscore fears of China eventually threatening US militarty power. And many liberals, like me, wouldn’t be delighted either.

August 13, 2004 @ 11:02 am | Comment

Sorry guys,

Today there are a few issue that aren’t the same as WWII or pre WWII.

For a start, you have a post Vietnam and post (I hope) Iraq US. Pragmatic heads in Washington will calculate carefuly whether the US should engage China in an open conflict. I believe the US will quietly tell Taiwan to shut up, which will suit everyone except Chen.

2ndly, the UN, much as many right wingers would like to malign it, has a very strong role, ironically made even stronger by the Iraq situation. It will step in to prevent any open conflict between the US and China – OK, the slow foot-dragging process will click in, in fact saving the day as time allows dialogue to take place, and the cooling of warlike intentions.

3rdly, (this may change of course) the US State Department is on the ascendancy while the influence of the Defence mob of Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, headed by Mr Vice P, Dick Cheney himself, is on the wane. The Internationalists will rule the roost for a while yet. Of course, there will be talks and talks and talks, which again are better than blasting at each other with missiles and whatnot.

4thly, Dick Cheney (if still around, and he is a mighty influence on Bush), right winger that he may be, is at heart a business man – nothing gladdens the heart of a bloke like that than the prospect of a large and lucrative market like China (I know, I know, I’m being cynical, but give Halliburton a ghost of a chance in China and Cheney will support diplomatic overtures rather than despatching aircraft carriers).

5-ly, you are assuming that China wants to invade Taiwan. I say wrong – certainly “teach her a lesson” but invade? no! See my earlier suggested scenario of hundreds of medium range missiles either dropping around or on strategic posts in Taiwan, just enough to scare the bejesus out of the Taiwanese, and stopping well before the US is forced to react (based on your suggestion that right wing groups would demand so). The Chinese could do this off and on (for years), short of inviting retaliatory US strikes – what will this do to Taiwan? You figure that out while I tell you what it will do to China herself – nothing! Business as usual for the Mainland while the Straits situation remains awful for overseas investment – China will also use her diplomatic-economic power to ostracise Taiwan even more completely than now.

As I mentioned several times before, the aim is not so much to invade Taiwan, but keep her in tow along the “One China” policy (until the big buffalo can decide what to do – I guess deep in the PRC hearts they know that Taiwan is already a lost case, but due to “face” they won’t accept/admit that yet).

There’s something that I ought to share with you – big powers cut deals behind our backs all the time while putting on an ostentatious show of expected belligerence for domestic consumption. They’ll divvy up the political, diplomatic and strategic dividends in secret. What is there to stop Beijing and Washington from conducting such deals, since both are already in agreement on the “One China” policy?

Eg. Beijing would inform (through covert and unofficial lines with the ‘deniability’ factor built in, of course) that a couple of missiles would be forthcoming 10 miles off the Taiwan coast in a week’s time to keep Chen in line, and Washingtion would ensure no aircraft carrier is deployed within 300 miles from Taiwan, or Washington would say, “Not this week please, we have the blah blah convention coming up next week, and it’s highly sensitive”.

Far-fetched? That unfortunately is the real world!

August 13, 2004 @ 7:09 pm | Comment

wishful thinking which will lead to war between China and America

There is a collision of wishful thinking on the part of American and Chinese policy experts which will lead to war. The Americans believe China will not attack Taiwan because the Chinese have too much to lose. The Chinese believe the Americans will not defend Taiwan because the Americans have too much to lose.

The last time Chinese and American forces clashed head on, in the Korean War, America lost around 54,000 dead and the Chinese lost as much as a million dead. I fear for the future.

August 14, 2004 @ 12:45 am | Comment

The world of the 1925 to 1970’s was very different from today.

1) Japan and Nazi Germany were bent on world domination – invading countries. Hence the will of the US was tested. Even then it took Pearl Harbour before she was dragged from her isolation policy into meeting the challenge. Post Vietnam, one did wonder whether the US would revert to the isolation policy?

2) Then there was the Korean War at the height of the Cold War. Basically a nation with pariah status in that era, China was frightened by the thought of being encircled by the US and her allies, from the Yalu River in the north, along her belly (down her coast with Taiwan as an attacking point) to the south in North Vietnam. Given this threat, she elected to confront the US on a ground of her choosing, namely the Korea peninsula.

Today, will the US and China go to war over an insignificant island, that both have agreed is an intrinsic part of China?

Big powers understand there are specific domains to which one must not cross, eg. During the Cold War we see the US and USSR avoiding direct conflict in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, South Vietnam, Afghanistan. Even Berlin was in many ways still protected by this unwritten rule.

But when this rule was broken, as in Cuba, the world came to the edge. The US (or UN) force approaching the Yalu River was another such instance of not observing this rule, though in that case, China had not yet possessed any N-weapons. The rule was one of the reason why US troops were confined mainly to South Vietnam. Even US bombings of the North were carefully conducted to avoid the Chinese border.

It is in fact wishful thinking on the part of those who don’t realize or believe in a pragmatic world, where unsavoury dealings were/are done all the while, that reckons there will be war between the US and China over Taiwan.

In the worst case secnario, China has only about 40 N-devices capable of being delivered intercontinental, while the US has several hundreds if not thousands. Many of these devices on both sides are of course of the modern multiple reentry independently-targeted bombs (MIRV?). Given two mad men making the Armageddon decision, China will be of course obliterated. What about the US? Also, who will be standing in the wings waiting for the final results?

But will N-devices be used? Certainly tactical ones will be in a war between the US and China, but how does one contain the inevitable escalation to strategic weapons? Will a PRC-controlled China go for broke if she senses she is losing?

All over Taiwan?

August 14, 2004 @ 11:26 am | Comment

American politicos are not to be trusted. They are all splittists, especially the conservative ones.

August 14, 2004 @ 1:20 pm | Comment

Jing,

Believe me, ALL pollies are not to be trusted, not just American ones. But collectively they are what would be termed a “necessary evil” in a democratic world.

As a Chinese I like to see, hopefully in my lifetime, a democratic China. It is still a dictatorship, in general a police state, but I detect some encouraging signs of the govt/PRC starting to listen to the voice of the people. There appears to be a gradual loosening of the shackles.

I read somewhere that 40% of Taiwan’s exports are to China – wonder if China would stop this business transaction if Chen persists in his play?

I know conservative Americans won’t like this but last year at the height of Chen’s “unilateral” declared intention to conduct referendum on Taiwan’s possible independence, Bush had rebuked Chen. For a conservative bloke like Bush, this confirmed US intention or policy towards the ‘One China’ policy.

August 15, 2004 @ 6:41 am | Comment

You are far too optimistic. Whether on the left or the right, American schismatics are everywhere. Go read the commentary on China issues at the Free Republic. Imperialist running dogs, the lot of them.

For all the comparisons of China today to a Fascist state, I think everyone is not looking far enough. Suppose Conrad is right and CCP rule collapses as a result of defeat in war, what then? A China, searing with nationalist resentment, acheing to repay indignitudes heaped upon it by foreign powers, possibly democratic as a result of the communist collapse, and suffering under economic turmoil. Isn’t this the spitting image of Weimar Germany? Rest assured, the Taiwan issue won’t be solved until it is either reunified, or the concept of a China as a political entity ceases to exist. The Chinese people of today and the near future will not stomach Taidu separatism. If one war fails to acheive the goal, then more wars will be required.

August 15, 2004 @ 12:16 pm | Comment

Jing,

I am not sure I agree with your belief in war, at least of one with the magnitude of a conflict between the US and China.

Apart from the devastating effect of such a conflict, I prefer peace, prosperity and security.

There’s no winner, only losers in any conflict. For example, Americans bemoaned the Vietnam conflict, of its pointless loss of 58,226 young men and women (killed or MIA).

The so-called winner of the war, the Vietnamese lost even more. Very few people mentioned its loss of 1 million combatants and 4 million cicvilians, almost 10% of its population.

If war occurs between China and US, even though China has less N-weapons, there is enough to devastate the west coast of the USA. Assume 40 ICBM with MIRV (say, 8 per) would mean 320 N-devices (perhaps China may have more?). Assume half or even a quarter of those succeed in reaching the USA and fall on Califormia and other coastal states – the outcome would be terrible. So would be the effect on China with thousands of such bombs raining down on her.

Any winners?

China as an authoritarian state today is not automatically bad or good though we should wish for a more democratic environment. She is cerainly better today than yesterday, and we hope she’ll be better tomorrow.

I mentioned this before though many had disagreed with me, that the Chinese in China are not quite ready for democracy, especially with a model imported from abroad.

Look at Singapore – is it a democracy? Many would say no, and point to the father-son PM-ship of the Lee family. To that I would say, and indeed have said, “So what!” as Lee Jnr is equally qualified. There shouldn’t be any discrimination against a man because of his father. Has any important politician in the West followed his politician father?

The point on Singapore is that its form of democracy appears to be the same as a Westminster model, but its practice is quite different. Despite all the criticism hurled against Singapore, it is a prosperous, secure and fairly free society. The majority of the Singaporeans thrive in its political model. The model is slowly changing as those in the west have too.

China would need to develop its model of democracy for its first stage of democracy, and change each stage as the system stablizes.

Yesterday there was the KMT, today there is the CCP, tomorrow, who knows?

August 16, 2004 @ 6:22 am | Comment

Selected extract from the Sydney Morning Herald

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/17/1092508475915.html

“Australia would not feel obligated under the ANZUS Treaty to help US forces defend Taiwan if China tried to regain the island republic by military force, the Foreign Minister said yesterday.”

“Asked whether a strategic partnership with Beijing was precluded by Australia’s possible obligations under the treaty to help the US defend Taiwan, Alexander Downer said the treaty was “symbolic” of the US alliance and indicated that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would not automatically trigger the treaty mechanisms.”

“Mr Downer’s interpretation of the treaty is unlikely to please the US.”

“But a former senior defence official with responsibility for managing the US alliance, Ron Huisken, welcomed Mr Downer’s comments, saying the treaty refers to an obligation to consult rather than automatically offer armed forces in support of a treaty partner.”

“For starters, you would also have to ascertain that Beijing was the aggressor. There’s nothing automatic about it,” he said.”

“The director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Hugh White, said Mr Downer’s comments were the first time a government member had articulated such a view on a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan.”

“That said, the view had been widely, if quietly, held for years, particularly as Taiwan’s leadership becomes more aggressive about independence.”

“The US itself has moved to distance itself from Taiwan’s adventurism ,” Mr White said. “It’s good that Downer has come out and spoken publicly about this.”

My Comments:

Read last two paragraphs.

Also, China has learned that there are more than one way to skin a cat!

August 17, 2004 @ 6:56 pm | Comment

Conrad and FS9:

We do not really know whether the US would react militarily, but the certain fact is that Beijing would definitely not stand by idly if Chen declares independence for Taiwan. Remember Korea in 1950? The late premier Zhou had said that China would intervene if MacArthur crosses the 38th parallel, and Beijing did. If Korea would push the CCP to use force, what more for Taiwan which she considers as her territory?

However, the US has to do alot of calculations before acting. First a Sino-US war would damage the US economically, and the PRC is nuclear-armed. So what kind of reaction is suitable? There remains alot of ambiguity in the type of reaction US can adopt. Moreover, Iraq now dominates Bush’s agenda. US forces are over strained globally and Osama’s network is still alive and kicking, can the cowboy afford a major war in the Asia-Pacific theatre? Already Bush has been fearful of being dragged into war by Chen and the DPP as seen by his strong words for Chen in an unprecedented way. “I oppose any unilateral action by the leader of Taiwan to change the status quo”.

August 18, 2004 @ 2:26 am | Comment

SP… what would the 38th parallel be in the case of Taiwan? A somewhat bizarre metaphor, I must say, I don’t think we will see anyone crossing any parallels except Mainland China. It’s not like anyone is invading the Mainland, or even approaching it.

August 18, 2004 @ 11:51 pm | Comment

Not entirely related, but also from the Sydney Morning Herald, the following article … which just goes to reinforce exactly what I said in another post. If China’s claim to Taiwan is accepted, you’ll find yourself having to accept China’s claim on a good deal of other territory …

“Korea’s fury at China’s claim on ancient kingdom
August 20, 2004

Seoul is furious at claims by Beijing that an ancient kingdom regarded by South Korea as its founding civilisation was a mere province of China.

Koguryo, the region in question, formed most of modern North Korea and a part of what is now China, where many ethnic Koreans still live. It merged with the southern kingdom of Silla to form Goryo, from which the name Korea is derived.

Last winter Chinese government historians published research to claim it was a Chinese civilisation.

Many South Koreans are concerned that if the dictatorship of Kim Jong-il in the communist North were to collapse, China will intervene to protect its interests there.

It is said that Beijing fears that a crisis in North Korea could cause a flood of refugees and, through reunification with the South, bring an American ally right up to its border.

Kim Woo-jun, a professor at the Korean Institute of East-West Affairs, said: “This is not a purely historical issue. If Koguryo is incorrectly interpreted by China as China’s old kingdom, the North Korean region becomes China’s historical territory. And this can serve as justification for future Chinese intervention.”
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The academics started the row by promoting proposals that the historical sites in Koguryo be listed as UNESCO World Heritage sites.

The announcement was feted in the Chinese state media as a national triumph.
The Telegraph, London”

As to the article about ANZUS … Jacky, you completely misunderstand the Australian position. Australia WILL fight with the US in the event of a war in the Taiwan strait … and note that Australia has never said they won’t. They’ve simply made a completely meaningless gesture to China to make them feel happy. It’ll ensure friendly ties as long as there is no war, and if there is war … well, ensuring friendly relations with China won’t exactly be a priority. It’s the same reason why most countries in the world acknowledge the One China principle … because China would get all hot and bothered about it, and words are cheap.

August 19, 2004 @ 9:40 am | Comment

The many Taiwanese who clamour for Taiwanese independence according to a US newspaper report are mostly resident in USA.Let there be no doubt the moment Taiwan declares independence there will be a Chinese attack regardless of whether the US
intervenes.
I for one would very much to see such leaders
stay in Taiwan and not wait for a plane to fly them out of harm’s way.It has happened in history and doubtless will happen again.I would therefore urge the Taiwanese to request those who advocate independence to lead the country in these historic times and not to flee and betray the country.As for the US I am sure when its missile shield is in place and can attack China with 100% immunity and
impunity it will do . Its one China policy is full of contradictions . Mark my words.

October 11, 2004 @ 1:43 am | Comment

The US will 100 percent respond to a Chinese attack on tiawan. First its not the point on how big taiwan is, doesnt matter if its the size of a small 1 mile island or the size of Russia.

I doubt the US though would take the war to China mainland however like you people here suggest.

Is it possible to defend Tiawan IF china attacked yes.

IS it possible to defend tiawan to the point where to dismantle the Chinas military mainland no.

If thats the case then the phrase ‘ A good defense is a good offense ‘comes to play.

To be honest I think the US government does whant Tiawan to be attacked for a very good reason. Pearl Harbour will come to mind. It will bring in support. The goal isnt really for internation support tho but support to dismantle the Chinese military and turn it into another non progressing European state examples: France and Germany.

” For a start, you have a post Vietnam and post (I hope) Iraq US. Pragmatic heads in Washington will calculate carefuly whether the US should engage China in an open conflict ” by jackie.

Now who said Iraq is another Vietnam? O ya your media! Dont always trust your government runned and sponsored media.

The US has already won the Iraq war. really.
The US are fighting terrorist now in Iraq of whom the Europeans stated never existed in the first place.

” 2ndly, the UN, much as many right wingers would like to malign it, has a very strong role, ironically made even stronger by the Iraq situation. It will step in to prevent any open conflict between the US and China – OK, the slow foot-dragging process will click in, in fact saving the day as time allows dialogue to take place, and the cooling of warlike intentions ”
By jackie.

What a joke. The UN couldnt even handle African 3rd country wars. Your european right off the bat. In your brain everyone should be equal. Including prisoner rights, light sentences for killing people, etc. Thinking all Americans think is black or white, but in reality we think Right from Wrong.

The truth is Europe is more of Americas eniemy then China is.

“Eg. Beijing would inform (through covert and unofficial lines with the ‘deniability’ factor built in, of course) that a couple of missiles would be forthcoming 10 miles off the Taiwan coast in a week’s time to keep Chen in line, and Washingtion would ensure no aircraft carrier is deployed within 300 miles from Taiwan, or Washington would say, “Not this week please, we have the blah blah convention coming up next week, and it’s highly sensitive”. ”

Strange of the matter is your socialist views of life should truely make that point proven within your own country itself. Surely you didnt see the bombs drop on Iraq while the talks of the Food for Oil Program; some European Nations were using for their on benefit. Lead to hundreds of dead Iraqi children, but I forgot, they won’t tell you that in European or for that matter American press now would they.

” 5-ly, you are assuming that China wants to invade Taiwan. I say wrong – certainly “teach her a lesson” but invade? no! See my earlier suggested scenario of hundreds of medium range missiles either dropping around or on strategic posts in Taiwan, just enough to scare the bejesus out of the Taiwanese, and stopping well before the US is forced to react (based on your suggestion that right wing groups would demand so).

Also by Jackie, the Liberal from Europe.

You forgot Clinton there. Sent 7 carriers to tiawan in 97 . Only 1 problem with ur useless all right bashing. Clinton is a lefty and a democrat.

As an American neither republican or Democrat, Its not a matter if the US president is Left or Right. Not much difference really these days. Its the publics views ( something you europeans cant grasp. Your the type of people that take the Media view and side of things.

You also made a laughable comment about how the US would retread or something of that sort. Wierd of that is, Why is it its always that the UN, EU, and the rest of the world states : the situation is to dangerous to send our troops’? Neither will I reply or read anything else you post since all you state is meaningless non fact from your views.

back to the Tiawan issue.

A war between China and the US would not end but i think will be a long war. neither side will win nor actually lose the war, since both will make profit of thier own industries.

Over and out.

December 16, 2004 @ 1:19 am | Comment

I refer to comments about US a carriers helping to defend Taiwan. In case some of your readers forget,nothing is permanent in this world.Yes The US can destroy China
but it would have to pay a heavy price.
China aint like any me country where
the US can send its ships to attack with impunity.So if CSB with the connivance of the US is mad to declare independence,the US would
have to get bodybags for innocent young Americans forced into war by Bush and his henchmen.

January 25, 2005 @ 10:24 pm | Comment

Now the Japs with the connivance of the US has declared Taiwan a security concern meaning if China were to attack Taiwan,the US
Jap defence treaty would be invoked.
Now if you are a sensible Chinese defence official charged with the defence of the country
you would have to factor in this deverlopment.
If the Japs and Rumsfeld think they can devastate China and be safe think again.
The Chinese can easily devastate Japan and inflict unacceptable damage on the US.OF course China could be destroyed but not
without giving a fight.
I need not have to say CSB and Taiwan would be reduced to rubble.

l

February 21, 2005 @ 11:45 pm | Comment

I hate the People Republic of China’s dictatorial government. It should fall apart into several officially independent nations.

February 26, 2005 @ 4:23 pm | Comment

Civilian americans think that china hasn’t the capability to so, well I am afraid your mistaken.

There are more factors than who’s navy is larger or how much one depends on the others trade.

The american people are fooled into believing there military is elite.

I have news for you, it’s not. However your technology is, but it is not excusive.

The Peoples Liberation Army has – 2.5 million men; 14,000 tanks; 14,500 artillery pieces & 453 helicopters.

NAVY – 250,000 sailors; 63 submarines; 18 destroyers; 35 frigates.

Air Force – 470,000 airmen; 2,556 jet fighters; 400 ground attack jets.

Nuclear Weapons: In October of 1964, the People’s Republic of China successfully exploded its first atomic bomb. On October 27th, 1966, China fired her first nuclear bomb from a guided missile. On June 17th, 1967 China had exploded her first hydrogen bomb.

China also has DF-31 a new type of ICBM with a target range of 8,000 kilometers.

China also has the most operational subs next to the US, and some are out fitted with balistic missles.

China is has a new SSBN, designated Type 094. The new sub is expected to carry the three-stage Julang-2 SLBM carrying a 100-200 kiloton warhead.

As for economics, look at anything in your house it’s made in China, Malaysia or Taiwan.

Do you really think china is going to economy will
crash because your it’s only consumer? Get a grip, they have clients all over the world.

Further more,
this will hurt you just as much as them if not worse.
Demand in the US will exceed supply (it’s called inflation look it up.)
Since china just took over the second largest goods producer, that leaves you with Malayisa and they alone don’t have the infrustructure couldn’t keep up with your needs.

The US has an ever increasing debt due to it’s world campaigns and, futher military spending would only compound the current situation.

The American military is stetched thin. Iraq and Afganistan has taken a up alot of military man/woman power and most soldiers are tired and want to go home. China is no Iraq.

I can’t believe you would say China has a short list of friends. The US friend list gets shorter by the day.

Let me break it down for you. To say that china has no chance of invading Tawian sucessfully is ignorance. To not see them as a viable threat it just crazy talk, and to say it’s “Chinese saber rattling” is typical blind redneck patriotism.

July 24, 2005 @ 7:53 pm | Comment

Civilian americans think that china hasn’t the capability to so, well I am afraid your mistaken.

There are more factors than who’s navy is larger or how much one depends on the others trade.

The american people are fooled into believing there military is elite.

I have news for you, it’s not. However your technology is, but it is not excusive.

The Peoples Liberation Army has – 2.5 million men; 14,000 tanks; 14,500 artillery pieces & 453 helicopters.

NAVY – 250,000 sailors; 63 submarines; 18 destroyers; 35 frigates.

Air Force – 470,000 airmen; 2,556 jet fighters; 400 ground attack jets.

China also has DF-31 a new type of ICBM with a target range of 8,000 kilometers.

China also has the most operational subs next to the US, and some are out fitted with balistic missles.

China is has a new SSBN, designated Type 094. The new sub is expected to carry the three-stage Julang-2 SLBM carrying a 100-200 kiloton warhead.

As for economics, look at anything in your house it’s made in China, Malaysia or Taiwan.

Do you really think china is going to economy will
crash because your it’s only consumer? Get a grip, they have clients all over the world.

Further more,
this will hurt you just as much as them if not worse.
Demand in the US will exceed supply (it’s called inflation look it up.)
Since china just took over the second largest goods producer, that leaves you with Malayisa and they alone don’t have the infrustructure couldn’t keep up with your needs.

The US has an ever increasing debt due to it’s world campaigns and, futher military spending would only compound the current situation.

The American military is stetched thin. Iraq and Afganistan has taken a up alot of military man/woman power and most soldiers are tired and want to go home. China is no Iraq.

I can’t believe you would say China has a short list of friends. The US friend list gets shorter by the day.

Let me break it down for you. To say that china has no chance of invading Tawian sucessfully is ignorance. To not see them as a viable threat it just crazy talk, and to say it’s “Chinese saber rattling” is typical blind redneck patriotism.

July 24, 2005 @ 7:54 pm | Comment

Civilian americans think that china hasn’t the capability to so, well I am afraid your mistaken.

There are more factors than who’s navy is larger or how much one depends on the others trade.

The american people are fooled into believing there military is elite.

I have news for you, it’s not. However your technology is, but it is not excusive.

The Peoples Liberation Army has – 2.5 million men; 14,000 tanks; 14,500 artillery pieces & 453 helicopters.

NAVY – 250,000 sailors; 63 submarines; 18 destroyers; 35 frigates.

Air Force – 470,000 airmen; 2,556 jet fighters; 400 ground attack jets.

China also has DF-31 a new type of ICBM with a target range of 8,000 kilometers.

China also has the most operational subs next to the US, and some are out fitted with balistic missles.

As for economics, look at anything in your house it’s made in China, Malaysia or Taiwan.

Do you really think china is going to economy will
crash because your it’s only consumer? Get a grip, they have clients all over the world.

Further more,
this will hurt you just as much as them if not worse.
Demand in the US will exceed supply (it’s called inflation look it up.)
Since china just took over the second largest goods producer, that leaves you with Malayisa and they alone don’t have the infrustructure couldn’t keep up with your needs.

The US has an ever increasing debt due to it’s world campaigns and, futher military spending would only compound the current situation.

The American military is stetched thin. Iraq and Afganistan has taken a up alot of military man/woman power and most soldiers are tired and want to go home. China is no Iraq.

I can’t believe you would say China has a short list of friends. The US friend list gets shorter by the day.

Let me break it down for you. To say that china has no chance of invading Tawian sucessfully is ignorance. To not see them as a viable threat it just crazy talk, and to say it’s “Chinese saber rattling” is typical blind redneck patriotism.

July 24, 2005 @ 8:01 pm | Comment

The latest US defence statement has stated the power of China with a missile force that can target US territory.
What it has not done is that US has thousands of offensive nuclear miisiles that can blow up the whole of China into smithreens,that is if it is prepared to do that .The US will also suffer a devastating blow maybe 30 % of damage.
So please don’t fool the educated public the world over.
Moreover the US has been using its power to attack others,eg,Vietnam,Kosovo.The Chinese ain’t that dumb to confront the US unless CSB with American backing is confident and mad enuf to detach Taiwan from China.
So the Chinese are building their power in case they are forced to attack CSB.
Then the fireworks and Armageddon would sweep the world.

July 26, 2005 @ 11:50 pm | Comment

Taiwan could not withstand the huge China military force for a couple of days. Taiwanese Chinese are nice people and I have visited Taiwan many times and learnt it by personal experience. It is sad to have the Taiwanese lives at risk of war. However, if the Chen, the so-called President of ROC, continues tp provoke the Mainland Chinese people on the unitifcation of China, there would not be other atlernatives available to the Mainland Chinese, but to go to war.

August 5, 2005 @ 4:57 am | Comment

There has been media reports on the buildup and modernisation of Chinese forces. The Pentagon has even portrayed Chinese forces as posing as a threat to the militaries of Asian
countries.
What it has not done so is that China has not attacked or even threaten to attack others except maybe India and Vietnam.The US has on
the other hand attacked countries which are not in a position to attack the US mainland.
What kind of hypocrysy is this? The latest being Bush saying he has not ruled out military action against Iran.

August 14, 2005 @ 9:08 am | Comment

Rumsfeld said at recent conference in Singapore that China currently faces no threat.I said “Bull shit”.The US is the greatest threat to China than China is to the world.
You need not have to be an Einstein to figure it out.
Will Rumdfeld guarantee that the US will not get involved if China attacks Taiwan when CSB presumably with US backing declares Taiwan to be independent.?
The Chinese forces are heavily outgunned by US forces.What Rumsfeld wants is a China that is defenceless like in the 50s when China was subjected to US nuclear blackmail.Then the US could attack China with immunity and impunity.Rumsfeld wake up.Those days are gone forever.Admittedly the US could devastate China 99.9% but China could hit the US maybe inflicting 30 to 50%.So the days whenRumsfeld and Cheyney can attack China like Iraq are gone.

August 24, 2005 @ 2:19 am | Comment

So far all the comments on Taiwan have centred on military means.
Assuming Taiwan goes independent.China could use economic pressure without military means eg no blockade of Taiwan.
The economy of Taiwan will grind to a halt
within a week to a month.No investors would go there.Taiwan will be unable to survive unless the US comes in. China will be Taiwan’s neighbour for eternity and going stronger by the day.It can still not defeat the US but is prepared to inflict unacceptable damage in such a game if push comes to a shove.

August 24, 2005 @ 6:19 am | Comment

Charles, you are a fool. The Chinese military is a bloted, vastly incompetent force.

First- It’s large array of “fighters” is actually antiquated, half upkept planes with pilots who get but a small fraction of the experience and training as America’s. They fool people like you into beleiving that all of their forces are modern by fully providing for only a few squandrans, and then filming it to fool its citizens, the world, and you.

Second- Their large numbers of soldiers are nothing more than an attempt to offset our incredible technological advantage over them. It would not be able to stand up to our forces, which can move quickly and quietly.

Third- Their navy is nothing to worry about. Yes, they are advancing. Yes, they can they can avoid us. And yes, if war were to come, we would likely take casualties because of their navy. But to even consider they very notion that their fleet is even comparable to ours on a World War basis is just laughable. Litterally. I laughed. Try reading naval books and getting some realistic info on that.

Fourth- Believing in the power of the American military is not Blind. It is not Red Neck. And it is certantly not Patriotic. It’s realistic.

And on a last note. China does not want war. They would loose. America does not want war. It would hurt us economicaly. Taiwan does not want war. I believe that is for obvious reason. I don’t believe military action will occur from Taiwan unless Chen decides to declare independence. Which is unlikely to happen if he has any doubts at all over how Bush will react. Oh yea. Charles. Email me at Schematic7@aol.com. I want to have an honest debate over politics with you. Please don’t virus me.

August 27, 2005 @ 10:56 pm | Comment

I refer to Ryans’ comments.

First there is absolutely no doubt the US could undertake a major surgical strike to destroy or
dismember China.
Second China could not win the war but could inflict unacceptable casualties or damage on the US.The increase in damage will grow corresponding to the military capability as time
goes on.
Third China is not defenceless and could wreak
havoc on the US navy which could be many times more than the kamkazi Japs could hope for.
Fourth Taiwan would be totally destroyed in a war bunker or no bunker for the President.
Fiftt if the US were to fight it would be based on their own terms,timing,place,enemy strength.
Yes, The US can destroy China but as Ryan put it,the Americans need China for its low cost quality products.
The Chinese don’t want war but if CSB declares
independence,US involvement or non invlement,they would destroy Taiwan.

August 29, 2005 @ 11:16 pm | Comment

So far all the comments on Taiwan have been
on how the leaders of the three countries
will fight.What about the American people?
I read that President Johnson said in 1964 before the Vietnam war started to heat up that American boys should not be sent to fight in Asia thousands of miles from the US.
That was during the height of the cold war and the US suffered 58000 dead.
Make no mistake a war over Taiwan will make that seem like small beer.It will
a) end in enormous damage for China
B) the destructuion of Taiwan
c) significant or total destruction of the 7th fleet
d)significant damage to US mainland on the west coast.
This will only be the beginning unless the US can pulverize the PLA into complete annilation.
In which case be prepared for more severe damage to US forces and homeland.
I hate to estimate the number of American deaths but it will be unimaginable.
I just hope the leaders of all the three countries bear this mind bf going to war.

September 2, 2005 @ 5:37 am | Comment

Richard Smith. You are right. Let’s not make light of this. Any war between China and the United States will be World War 3. The chances of it staying contained to the Taiwan region and not spilling over into the Koreas is small. It will probably go nuclear, and despite China’s limited ICBMs, we still lack an adequte system to shoot any of them down. But Richard, you seem to underestimate how willing the people of America are willing to go to war. I don’t know if your euro, ausie, can., or maybe american, but you seem to missjudge how quickly the citizens will rally around the country in a time of crisis. It’s natural for humans to come together when faced with a problem. The only difference with us is that we are williing to bomb the crap out a country in the process. I have no doubt that if a war with China were to occur, and China fires the first shot. President Bush will have full backing to do all that is neccessary to protect the United States and her intrests abroad.

September 2, 2005 @ 11:30 pm | Comment

I am an CB Aussie.
As to Ryan’s comments that if the Chinese were to shoot first,the US will respond with
overwhelming response.But in a Taiwan war
scenario,the Chinese are not, repeat, not waiting
for the US to park its navy in the Taiwan Strait.
Ryan,what would the US do if the Chinese were to park their fleet near Califonia after the people of California want to detach themselves from the US?This is a hypothetical question.
We are living in the 21st century. The days when the Europeans,Americans Japanese and Russians can attack China with immunity and not suffer retribution are over.
Finally,the Chinese won’t go to war unless
Taiwan declares independence which they won’t dare unless they have US support.
Publicly Bush supports the one China policy.But you can’t trust these politicians.
So you have to be prepared for any eventuality.As some of the correspondents have said ,China was subject to US nuclear blackmail I’m sur they and nobody wants to be blackmailed.

September 8, 2005 @ 1:02 am | Comment

I think I understand what your saying. But let’s not forget that there is a significant difference between the Chinese-Taiwan issue, and any hypothetical situation including California going independent.
You said. “We are living in the 21st century. The days when the Europeans,Americans Japanese and Russians can attack China with immunity and not suffer retribution are over.” I’m not sure what you mean by this. I could be missing something but I don’t remember right off hand any time the Americans, Europeans, or Russians bombed China. In fact, the only time to my knowledge that America and China ever traded gun fire was during the Korean War 50 years ago. And the Japanese, while striking many victories in the begining of WW2 with their invasion of China, were actually on the side of being pushed back by the sheer number of Chinese people.
I am not saying that it would be easy to beat the crap out of the Chinese. I don’t think it’s ever easy to beat the crap out of anyone. Are the Chinese weak. Heck no! But I think you are putting many factors way, way ahead of others when calculating the strength of China. They can defend their homeland. They have enough people for that. But they can not fight a war outside of their borders. There is no matching the blotted, out of shape Chinese army, to the highly trained, battle hardened force of the United States military.
But I believe I should point out one thing to you. China is a growing threat. Taiwan is a friendly country to us, right off China’s coast. This is a huge strategic advantage that we hold over China. An attack on our advantage is an attack on us. The Chinese know this, so they have not attacked Taiwan. We have proven our willingness to use nuclear weapons on countries in the past. We have stared down the Soviet Union with that same willingness to do the unthinkable. If the Chinese decide they want to play, then I can say only one thing. Bring them on.

September 11, 2005 @ 12:20 am | Comment

These comments on theTaiwan situation have been abt what the Chinese would do and the US reaction.Let’s turn our attn to Korea and Iran.
These two countries allegedly are nuclear armed or abt to be na.Therefore they are a threat to world peace.
How many n weapons has the US?It has the siop which threatens to unleash its n might on any country that dares to threaten US interests.
Therefore it is a greater threat thean NK and Iran.Let’s be honest abt it.No sane leader would launch an attack agaginst the US.
However the US itself wants to attack other countries with nw according to its siop.
So stop fooling the world and the educated masses.

January 18, 2006 @ 3:20 am | Comment

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