You think I’m kidding? It’s all in this very strange article:
Security experts in Taiwan have dismissed a US Pentagon report which suggested the island bomb China’s Three Gorges Dam to deter a possible invasion by its political rival.
While the government did not respond to the report, Taiwan’s Deputy Defence Minister Tsai Ming-shian on Wednesday urged parliament to approve a budget to boost its military might, saying it is likely Taiwan will be attacked in the next two to four years.
In a recent report, the US Defense Department warned that China was developing military tools to prevent Taiwan from achieving independence, including preventing the United States from going to the island’s aid should a war break out.
The report went so far as to suggest that since Taipei cannot match Beijing’s ability in field offensive systems, it could instead attack China’s urban population or high-value targets, such as the Three Gorges Dam, to deter a military coercion.
But security analysts in Taiwan said such a scenario is unlikely to happen, as the risk is too high and the damage too limited.
Back to the drawing board.
I had no idea Taiwan was seriously thinking of attacking China anytime soon. According to the article, Taiwan intelligence indicates “China may launch small-scale attacks against Taiwan in 2006 or 2008.” You’d think at that point China would have its hands full dealing with the Olympics.
1
By wayne
The conventional wisdom among pan-blue supporters in Taiwan is that China is going to attack in 2006, when Chen tries to bring a new/amended constitution to a referendum. It’s at that point that Taiwanese independence will have gone too far.
Many of the military scenarios that I’ve read just have Taiwan lying there, taking it up the butt (so to speak). But given China’s weak infrastructure, like their overextended power plants, a small Taiwanese counterattack could do remarkable damage to China’s economy and deter every so slightly any Chinese aggressiveness.
I was watching a talk show last night about the possibility of attacking the Three Gorges dam. Taiwan doesn’t have the mid to long range missiles to take it out, so it would have to be done by Taiwan’s F-16s. The only problem is that the Three Gorges dam is 1200 km away from Taiwan, so even if the fighter jets could somehow miraculously make it to the dam, they would be flying over a lot of other militarily valuable targets (Wuhan, Fuzhou, etc.) to get there, so attacking the Three Gorges dam doesn’t make much sense.
June 9, 2004 @ 8:09 pm | Comment
2
By Angry Chinese Blogger
Blowing up the three gorges wouldn’t be an easy task, the dams are designed to withstand an immense amount of force from the water that they are holding back.
If you remember the efforts that the British had to go to to blow up German dams during world war two (Barns Wallis’s famous bouncing bomb), then you can see what Taiwan would have to match.
Flying a jet into the heart of China is pretty much unthinkable as China would vaporise Taipei the second that they realised what was going on, and it would have to be a very big missile to penetrate and destroy a dam. An F-16 with bunker penetrating missiles wouldn’t do very much damage to a dam because its weapons are designed to kill the people inside the bunkers and not shatter them. They work best with hollow structures that have an air gap inside because they use a shockwave waves and not a conventional detonation.
I can’t see commando’s lugging ten tonnes of explosives up the side of a mountain either.
Also breaking even one dam could possible kill up to a million people, leaving Beijing with ever right to nuke Taiwan into fine dust under. Even America couldn’t defend somebody who pre-emptively killed even a hundred thousand people. This would be the greatest act of mass murder in history, if you think about how much the Chinese hate the Japanese now, imagine what would happen to Taiwan if it blew up one of the dams. There wouldn’t be a man left alive.
June 9, 2004 @ 8:45 pm | Comment
3
By richard
I found it a very peculiar suggestion.
June 9, 2004 @ 9:57 pm | Comment
4
By Simon World
Asia by blog
A slightly shorter version today…but you must at least read the first link – it’s the funniest thing I’ve seen in a long time. As Homer says, it’s funny coz it’s true. Firstly the names some people take require more thinking (via Richard). Shaky does…
June 9, 2004 @ 9:59 pm | Comment
5
By m.c.
Bombing the dam will not deter a possible invasion. It is, however, a good way to invite a full scale invasion.
I don’t know what the people in the Pentagon are drinking…if they are the same punch of people who designed the Iraqi plan.
June 10, 2004 @ 1:26 am | Comment
6
By Dan
I thought China wasn’t supposed to attack until its economy collapsed and it wanted to try the whole scapegoating->appeal to nationalism->CCP=PRC angle. Or maybe they’re supposed to attack Hong Kong then. I mean, if the pentagon is making oversimplistic judgements, why can’t I?
Also: does anyone else find it weird that Taiwan aired a talk show about the possibility of attacking the Three Gorges dam?
June 10, 2004 @ 2:03 am | Comment
7
By Daai Tou Laam Diary
US University Expert States in Beijing Taiwan Invasion In 2006
George Washington University professor David Shambaugh told the Foreign Correspondents Club yesterday in Beijing.
June 10, 2004 @ 2:08 am | Comment
8
By KimcheeGI
Richard,
Take it from a “hawk,” somebody’s conjecture was taken way, way out of context for this entire ridiculous story. Talk about spin, this came from a portion of the SECDEF’s FY04
ANNUAL REPORT ON THE MILITARY POWER OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (link to the 508K pdf report). Here’s the point of contention, but I reccomend that all “China Hands” read the report in it’s entirety:
“….(Taiwanese) proponents of strikes against the mainland apparently hope that merely presenting credible threats to China’s urban population or high- value targets, such as the Three Gorges Dam, will deter Chinese military coercion.” is quite different than “The report went so far as to suggest that since Taipei cannot match Beijing’s ability in field offensive systems, it could instead attack China’s urban population or high-value targets, such as the Three Gorges Dam, to deter a military coercion.”
June 10, 2004 @ 7:33 am | Comment
9
By chriswaugh_bj
Thought you might be interested, this comes courtesy of our friends at Xinhuanet:
“BEIJING, June 10 (Xinhuanet) — A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on Thursday refuted a recent report issued by the Pentagon on Beijing’s military forces, saying that the report was filled with cold war mentality and had ulterior motives.
According to a journalist at a regular news briefing, the report suggested Taiwan would attack the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s biggest hydroelectric project, to counter a possible Chinese attack.”
June 10, 2004 @ 9:20 am | Comment
10
By angrychineseblogger.blog-city.com
The ABC of committing self Genocide: A: Attack China
Step one: Find a nation far larger than yourself and equipped with one of the world’s grandest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Step two: Commit an act of Genocide against its people. Step Three: DieYou would have to be insane to take these steps, so it
June 16, 2004 @ 9:46 pm | Comment