Andrew has some good insights.

Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how’d Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 — a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base.

There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn’t pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out – but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP’s weak spot is that they aren’t winning over the young; and that they won’t have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work.

Could any Democrat have done better than Kerry? He won the liberals and the moderates. He won the youth vote. Was there a way he could have won those who believe abortion is murder and that gay marriage threatens civilized society? How do you win these people over when the sensitive wedge issues — guns, abortion, gay marriage — dominate their thinking, and the believe bush is on the side of God? I don’t know, and I don’t know what the Dems can do about this come 2008. These emotional triggers, used to such brilliant effect by Republicans, are so insidious, so divisive, I wonder if they might not leave us permanently polarized….

I’ve been having a difficult time all morning trying to make sense of all the emotions I’m feeling and all the data I’m trying to absorb and process. Obviously, it’s one of the darkest days I’ve had in some years. The mood in left-leaning blogistan is utterly surreal, a gloomy silence descending on even the busiest blogs like Atrios, Kos, TPM, etc. This one, too.

So why did bush win? Why did 51 percent of Americans elect a president who oversaw an unnecessary and bloody war, a deteriorating economy, a loss of international respect, policies that harmed the environment, etc., etc.? Most of those polled said they voted for bush because of “moral values” — wedge issues like gay marriage were more important than the war in Iraq or the state of our economy. As Joseph Bosco notes, America is a conservative country, and Rove understood just how to play his conservative base.

Was this a cataclysmic defeat for the Democrats? It sure looks that way. But Josh Marshall, in an obviously anguished post, helps put the whole thing into perspective.

[W]hen I look at the results from last night what I see is that they are virtually identical to four years ago. Pretty much the same states going each way and a very close to even race — though of course the president’s 51% makes all the difference in the world.

As I said, if the Dems had been crushed, that would be one thing. If the American people were coalescing away from them, etc. But that’s not what has happened here.

I’m not sure I can agree, when I see all the red that’s been added to the map across the country, but he’s got a point — nearly 50 percent voted my way.

Amid the general misery of this morning, there’s another bright spot, namely the fact that bush will have to account for the results of that which he has wrought. Iraq and the economy won’t be on Kerry’s shoulders. No one can assign blame to the Dems for these things. Small consolation, I admit, but it’s good to know they now must be accountable; if things fail or succeed, we know who to blame (or congratulate). As I’ve said before, I wouldn’t want to be in the shoes of the newly elected president, considering the shambles bush has made of the world.

And what to say about creeping conservatism? Watching the country shift over to the right scares the hell out of me, but I’m going to keep my faith that Americans will resist the temptation to force evangelical Christian values on the rest of us. The vote against the FMA was a positive sign, but now that the can claim a mandate, who knows what’s next from the Christian right? Like me, Andrew Sullivan finds this cause for serious concern.

What we’re seeing, I think, is a huge fundamentalist Christian revival in this country, a religious movement that is now explicitly political as well. It is unsurprising, of course, given the uncertainty of today’s world, the devastating attacks on our country, and the emergence of so many more liberal cultures in urban America. And it is completely legitimate in this country for such views to be represented in public policy, however much I disagree with them. But the intensity of the passion, and the inherently totalist nature of religiously motivated politics means deep social conflict if we are not careful. Our safety valve must be federalism. We have to live and let live. As blue states become more secular, and red states become less so, the only alternative to a national religious war is to allow different states to pursue different options. That goes for things like decriminalization of marijuana, abortion rights, stem cell research and marriage rights. Forcing California and Mississippi into one model is a recipe for disaster. Federalism is now more important than ever. I just hope that Republican federalists understand this. I fear they don’t.

And I live in a deeply conservative state; maybe it’s time for me to think about moving. Then again, if Sullivan’s right, it won’t matter — the evangelicals will try to nationalize their agenda, and there might not be a place to hide. That’s truly scary, but I won’t worry about it in advance. I’m depressed enough today.

Okay, I apologize for the disjointed and obviously depressed nature of this post. It totally reflects my present mood. For all the harsh words, the comment wars, the spats and quarrels, I know that each of us wants what is best for America, although we disagree with one another on what that should be. So thanks to all those who joined in these discussions, no matter what side you were on (and to the two commenters I banned from the comments for making personal cuts, send me an email if you want to be re-instated; this is a good time to call a general amnesty).

Now we have to move ahead and make the most of what we’ve got. I’m disappointed as hell, and I believe the American people voted foolishly against their better interests. But that’s democracy for you, and I accept it. And now, I’m going to hibernate for a while and think about what this blog should be moving forward. Or if it should be at all. At this moment, I just don’t know.

See Josh Marshall — the Republicans are using lawsuits to force polls to close.

Across the board the story is the same in Ohio, a lawsuit strategy from Republicans is causing delays and shutdowns in precincts that remained open to allow people who were already in line to vote. Lawsuits create delays; folks leave.

Very depressing. It seemed all day that the “challengers” were being gentlemanly, but now they’re baring their teeth. Just as in Florida 2000, they’ve learned that when you can’t win with the people’s votes, turn to the courts.

Actually, it’s a November surprise: Just this morning, thanks to the determination of some true Republicans, Ohio’s court of appeals voted two to one (2 Repubs, 1 Dem) to allow “challengers” to challenge whether voters in Ohio are truly registered voters. Sounds like good news for the goons, no?

No. In fact, it was the stupidest thing they’ve ever done and a final gift to Kerry. Since the challengers were targetting polling places in Ohio’s black neighborhoods, this news hit the local population like lightning. It was a return to Jim Crow, it was legislated intimidation and supression, and they weren’t going to let it silence them. Nothing could possibly have made them more excited and determined to vote, and nothing could have turned them more strongly against the Grand Old Party.

Jesse Taylor, working at the polls in Ohio, gets it just right.

The Republican voter challenger debacle, alongside the Milwaukee and South Carolina flyers, may be the worst conservative strategic blunder of any election in recent memory. From my precinct (an admittedly small sample), a lot of people feel like they’re back in the 60s, fighting against a tyrannical and prejudiced power trying to keep them from exercising their constitutional rights. I’ll be surprised if Bush matches his eight percent of the black vote from 2000.

Read his description of what it’s like there. It’s clear that minorities and lower-income voters have never before been so determined to vote, thanks to the Republicans attempt to discourage them. Talk about a strategy backfiring….

Just in case you didn’t know… Now go and make me very happy tomorrow. We need a big victory, a huge victory to give Kerry-Edwards a broad mandate. That means we all have to vote, even my friends in New York who say they don’t need to vote since Kerry will win anyway. That kind of selfish and presumptive thinking can be dangerous. Every single vote counts more than ever before. Please, even if you have to wait and be bored. The last thing you want to do is regret not having voted on Tuesday. It’s you, it’s me, it’s all of us, no exceptions. Republicans like Conrad and Sam, et.al. it’s not too late — you can redeem your souls and win back your humanity. Swallow your pride and do it. Don’t you deserve a president who can complete a sentence? Who can admit his mistakes? Who is accountable and responsibe? Who understands the world and how it works? Can’t you see the depths to which we’ve fallen since 911, the day when “everyone was an American”? Now’s your chance to change that, to restore what is beautiful and great about America. It’s all up to you. Vote for Kerry, and vote straight Democratic to help win back the Congress. Enough of Tom DeLay and his cronies, enough of government of bullies and liars. Please — just this once, despite the inconvenience, despite the weather and the traffic and the lines, take a few minutes and help bring America back from the dead. We were so great, so strong, so respected just a few years ago. How could we have let this happen? And how can we not do all we can to get our country back on course? Thank you for stopping by, and be sure to vote tomorrow. It’s our one magnificent chance; don’t let it slip by.

Stylistically, Wolcott’s the best blogger out there and way, way smarter than most. He’s worked out a good plan for saving your sanity after the election, no matter which way it goes.

[P]ractically everyone I know is a neurotic basket case over this election, ready to call their mothers to see if they can have their old womb back should Bush win. My plan is, If Bush wins, I’m going to allot myself 48 hours to mope and dread–okay, 72–okay, maybe 96–but 96 tops–but after that it’ll be time to get on mental war footing. If Kerry wins, do you think conservative Republicans are going to take to their beds for soul-searching? They have no souls to search, most of them. No, they’ll be scheming to ratfuck a Kerry presidency, and if history is a reliable guide they’ll have allies in the elite media who can’t wait to start snarking over Teresa as First Lady and the timidity of Kerry’s cabinet picks, whatever. Reporters and pundits who’ve paid scant attention to the casualties and carnage in Iraq will suddenly find their consciences tucked away in a file drawer, and start wondering when Kerry will show the strength and resolve we expect from our leaders. They will hound him about Bin Laden in ways they never did Bush.

….the war in Iraq has made moral cowards of us all. To focus on whether or not the Bin Laden tape would give Bush a boost while thousands upon thousands of Iraqis die and Fallujah is about to pulverized without the slightest debate in this country is an indictment of our media, our political class, and the phony Christianity that so many of our dumpling patriots profess.

But as Randi Rhodes said today on Air America, voters don’t show up early and stand in line for hours in the sun, as they’ve been doing in Florida, to support the status quo. So make way for tomorrow.

Right on all counts. Electing Kerry tomorrow is just the start of the battle; life will have a purpose after the election, and there will be more to blog about, not less. I just wish the election would end so we could stop the nail biting. I’m actually dreaming about the election, and that’s never a healthy sign.

Reports Andrew Sullivan:

October 30 – Fox poll shows Bush up by 2. Headline: “Fox Poll: Bush Up By Two Points Over Kerry”

November 1 – Fox poll shows Kerry up by 2. Headline: “Fox National Poll: Voters Split.” You really can’t make this up.

Meanwhile, early voting is showing a strong Kerry surge and what was just days ago an 8-pont lead for shrub in the Gallup poll of likely voters is now a dead heat. I don’t want to jinx things, but this looks very good for the good guys.

He should be hung by his heels in the public square. His absolute favorite tactic, every time, is to pull on people’s emotional attitude toward gays. Today’s example is so sickening that I want to believe people will immediately recognize it for the evil it is.

And of course, he’s using the same tactics in Florida:

Republican agitators disguise themselves as “Kerry supporters from San Francisco.” Will anyone fall for this crap?

This was reassuring to see.

In a hard-hitting commentary on the eve of U.S. elections, China has slammed the Bush administration, saying it is trying to rule the world by force.

Writing in the state newspaper China Daily, Vice Premier Qian Qichen said “the philosophy of the ‘Bush Doctrine’ is in essence force. It advocates the United States should rule over the whole world with overwhelming force, military force in particular.

Now, don’t all you Republicans get all excited and tell me this is further proof of murderous thugs all lining up behind Kerry. Everyone’s lining up behind Kerry, brutal dictators and puppy dogs. Except Iran, which has come out for shrub, and of course Osama Bin Laden, who put out a free ad for bush last Friday, which Republicans referred to on the record as “a gift.”

Link is via Conrad who, as usual, gets it all wrong. (And why doesn’t Conrad get it through his head that if John Ascroft had his way, the first thing he’d do would be to close down Gweilo Diaries?)

I rarely use the “F” word, but Florda deserves it for passing a law prohibiting journalists from speaking with or photographing people as they wait in line to vote. The new law was apparently passed in secret and was not announced. When an unwitting reporter went to interview people on line for early voting, he was punched and arrested. Incredible. Could this be a reaction to Michael Moore’s promise to videotape Florida polling places? It’s a grotesque story, and doesn’t bode well for tomorrow.