Hacked By AdGhosT & Tayeb TN & bo hmid

 

 

 

 

 

close your eyes and listen Elfen Lied <3

Greets~:AdGhosT-- adel pro tn- Anonback Tnx - A_Ghacker - xvirus -Malousi Foryn - MaxKiller - Nexamos

Hacked By AdGhosT

Hacked By AdGhosT & Tayeb TN & bo hmid

 

 

 

 

 

close your eyes and listen Elfen Lied <3

Greets~:AdGhosT-- adel pro tn- Anonback Tnx - A_Ghacker - xvirus -Malousi Foryn - MaxKiller - Nexamos


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Comments on: China’s Word of the Year: Reform http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/ A peculiar hybrid of personal journal, dilettantish punditry, pseudo-philosophy and much more, from an Accidental Expat who has made his way from Hong Kong to Beijing to Taipei and finally back to Beijing for reasons that are still not entirely clear to him... Wed, 12 Apr 2017 16:34:31 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.2 By: Otto Kerner http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-196178 Mon, 11 Feb 2013 05:49:07 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-196178 I doubt there’s much hope of real liberalization under a Xi presidency. If there’s a real economic crisis, which I think is unlikely, then the CCP regime could fall apart, but disaster is more likely than improvement in that case — with the world so much in flux at that point, a good result is possible if not probable. The best case for a crisis is the Bruce Gilley scenario, in which the government never falls apart, but a crisis threatens paralysis until a faction comes to power using the legitimacy of democratic elections to gain an edge over their rivals.

More likely, Xi will hang on for 10 years with roughly the same governing strategy that Hu used. What I think is important during that time is that intellectuals and everyone else discuss reforms so much for the next 10 years that, during the 2022 power transition, it has become the 800 pound gorilla in the room that no one can ignore (even if they try to pretend it’s not there). This is the best hope for China (and, indirectly, for Tibet).

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By: t_co http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195950 Sun, 10 Feb 2013 08:52:20 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195950

Does anyone really believe that Pew poll? I don’t.

Why not?

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By: Cookie Monster http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195939 Sun, 10 Feb 2013 07:40:14 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195939 Other Lisa
Does anyone really believe that Pew poll? I don’t.

Similar polls showed Hong Kongers being fairly satisfied (or ‘trusting’) of CCP leadership, for what it’s worth. Regardless of their merits, poor people everywhere are remarkably easy to brainwash. Not that it necessarily happened.

Did you see that video of Xi Jinping visiting dirt poor villagers? I’m not convinced that either their happiness or their poverty was faked. Logically this is fatal to every Western argument that presupposes widespread discontent.

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By: Other Lisa http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195918 Sun, 10 Feb 2013 05:36:38 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195918 Does anyone really believe that Pew poll? I don’t.

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By: t_co http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195796 Sat, 09 Feb 2013 17:14:37 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195796 Yeah, basically, what’s the CCP’s game plan if inflation hits 8% while growth drops below that?

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By: Wukailong http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195782 Sat, 09 Feb 2013 15:34:37 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195782 I think the question here is not so much about what people in the CCP think as how much of a window they have to change things before social pressure is too high. In short, how will the government cope.

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By: Raj http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195715 Sat, 09 Feb 2013 09:16:20 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195715 I should add that I don’t think the CCP is of one opinion, but the older, traditionalist “we know best” faction seems to have the upper hand. Nothing will change until the so-called “reformists” are willing to rock the boat by standing up and challenging the status quo, even if that threatens Party unity.

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By: Raj http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195714 Sat, 09 Feb 2013 09:13:38 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195714 I think I’m going with the more skeptical view, that increasingly the CCP has a sense of entitlement about ruling China and is going to become less willing to reform politically, even if economically it might cede some ground. In some respects you could says it’s getting towards the feeling of “divine right” that the imperial family had. Nothing ever changes, eh?

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By: Wukailong http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195411 Fri, 08 Feb 2013 04:41:31 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195411 I agree with t_co. I looked through Gao Yu’s article and it just didn’t strike me as anything out of the ordinary, hardly indicating a very hardline stance and actually completely in line with what some of the more reformist people in the party are saying (I’m referring to Gongjian again) – if the party loses control over the gun, it will basically become another failed Soviet Union [if Raj is reading this: this is not what I think but a description of a common opinion in China].

In terms of reform, you also need to think about how strong the forces of reform are and how pressing the needs are according to where the economy and society currently stands. I would say it’s way stronger than before but still not close to a tipping point. If Xi handles it well now by loosening the state’s grip on the economy and some of the bureaucracy, things still look bright; if not, the inevitable transition period will be rocky.

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By: t_co http://www.pekingduck.org/2013/02/chinas-word-of-the-year-reform/comment-page-1/#comment-195346 Thu, 07 Feb 2013 22:08:35 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=11362#comment-195346 I think you’re right to put some cold water on the idea of Xi as a political reformer–mainly because his hands are tied by the more conservative members of the Politburo. I think his speech to the military, though, shouldn’t construed as an implicit call for the PLA to serve as a bulwark for regime legitimacy. As Yeltsin once noted, you can make a throne of bayonets, but you can’t sit on it for long; aphorisms aside, China also lived through 25 years of warlordism that was the proximate cause for China’s weakness in the field versus the IJA. The more accurate prism through which to interpret Xi’s speech is an exhortation for the military to accept the foreign policy posture dictated by the Party over the next few months; during 2013, I sense Xi is going to try to thread the needle in terms of securing China’s maritime flank, and a military incident is the last thing he needs.

As regards political reform, macroeconomic circumstances might force him to change his tune come late this year or early next. Watch for what Wang Qishan and Li Keqiang do to the “capital disbursement mechanism” of China (the SOE-banking-local government cash nexus); how deep will those surgical incisions go. Beyond a certain point, those cuts will hit the political skeleton of China. Will Wang go further, or will Xi side with the viewpoints of Zhang Dejiang and Zhang Gaoli to put a crimp on things?

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