Comments on: The myth of bad local officials, good central government http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/ A peculiar hybrid of personal journal, dilettantish punditry, pseudo-philosophy and much more, from an Accidental Expat who has made his way from Hong Kong to Beijing to Taipei and finally back to Beijing for reasons that are still not entirely clear to him... Mon, 20 May 2013 06:08:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.1 By: Other Lisa http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185748 Other Lisa Sun, 14 Oct 2012 03:04:30 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185748 Super-cool, KT -- thanks for posting! Super-cool, KT — thanks for posting!

]]> By: King Tubby http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185624 King Tubby Wed, 10 Oct 2012 20:35:40 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185624 Off topic Richard, but better than The Clock's unreferenced verbiage. Tremendous stuff lad in a blue plaid shirt and speaking with a rural accent, Miao Cuihua trips over her words as she demands unpaid wages, her “blood and sweat money” for toiling on a construction project. Miao is certainly not the first migrant worker in China to complain about unpaid wages, but her act of protest has probably been seen by more of her fellow citizens than any other salary dispute in history. Rather than going to her former employer’s office or lodging a petition with the government – the normal forms of protest in China – Miao took her appeal to the internet with a cleverly produced video that has gone viral and been reported widely by local media. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/10/10/china-a-pay-dispute-goes-viral/ Off topic Richard, but better than The Clock’s unreferenced verbiage.

Tremendous stuff

lad in a blue plaid shirt and speaking with a rural accent, Miao Cuihua trips over her words as she demands unpaid wages, her “blood and sweat money” for toiling on a construction project.

Miao is certainly not the first migrant worker in China to complain about unpaid wages, but her act of protest has probably been seen by more of her fellow citizens than any other salary dispute in history.

Rather than going to her former employer’s office or lodging a petition with the government – the normal forms of protest in China – Miao took her appeal to the internet with a cleverly produced video that has gone viral and been reported widely by local media.

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/10/10/china-a-pay-dispute-goes-viral/

]]> By: Gan Lu http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185603 Gan Lu Wed, 10 Oct 2012 04:29:54 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185603 The idea that Bo Xilai was an outlier is ludicrous. Bloomberg's investigation into the enormous wealth (between US$400 million and US$ 1 billion) of Xi Jinping's family should put that idea to rest. Who in China believes that the Party is sincere in its desire to stamp out corruption? This isn't simply about well-intentioned bureaucrats - as an institution, the Party will fight the kinds of changes needed to reign in corruption. Indeed, it is the very nature of the system that begets corruption. Any serious attempt at fighting corruption would introduce the kinds of checks on power that the Party is fundamentally opposed to. All efforts to combat corruption will be ad hoc - equal parts propaganda, politics and law enforcement. This will not end well. Either the Party ends in catastrophic collapse, or it maintains its grip on power but ceases to govern well (I don't mean to imply that the Party is governing well now). Either senario would be a catastrophe for Chinese society. Unfortunately, I don't anticipate the Party turning things around. I see almost nothing to be positive about. Gordon Chang's biggest mistake was committing to a sell-by-date. If you read his book as a description of HOW the Party might collapse (as opposed to a prediction of WHEN it will collapse), it holds up much better. To be sure, it's not a great book, but neither is it as bad as some suggest. I tend to agree with people like Professor Sun Liping of Tsinghua University who believe that the Party will hold on to power but fail to govern well - leading to increasingly widespread anomie, violence, protest, etc., etc. In fact, Prof. Sun this process is already well under way. The idea that Bo Xilai was an outlier is ludicrous. Bloomberg’s investigation into the enormous wealth (between US$400 million and US$ 1 billion) of Xi Jinping’s family should put that idea to rest. Who in China believes that the Party is sincere in its desire to stamp out corruption? This isn’t simply about well-intentioned bureaucrats – as an institution, the Party will fight the kinds of changes needed to reign in corruption. Indeed, it is the very nature of the system that begets corruption. Any serious attempt at fighting corruption would introduce the kinds of checks on power that the Party is fundamentally opposed to. All efforts to combat corruption will be ad hoc – equal parts propaganda, politics and law enforcement. This will not end well. Either the Party ends in catastrophic collapse, or it maintains its grip on power but ceases to govern well (I don’t mean to imply that the Party is governing well now). Either senario would be a catastrophe for Chinese society. Unfortunately, I don’t anticipate the Party turning things around. I see almost nothing to be positive about.

Gordon Chang’s biggest mistake was committing to a sell-by-date. If you read his book as a description of HOW the Party might collapse (as opposed to a prediction of WHEN it will collapse), it holds up much better. To be sure, it’s not a great book, but neither is it as bad as some suggest. I tend to agree with people like Professor Sun Liping of Tsinghua University who believe that the Party will hold on to power but fail to govern well – leading to increasingly widespread anomie, violence, protest, etc., etc. In fact, Prof. Sun this process is already well under way.

]]> By: Other Richard http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185600 Other Richard Wed, 10 Oct 2012 03:13:44 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185600 Richard argues that the notion of "good central government, bad local officials" is a myth. Clock responds by saying Gordon Chang has been wrong in his predictions about the Party's demise. That is what we call a non-sequitur. Clock, if you want to refute Richard's point, you need to provide some evidence as to why the "good central government, bad local officials" premise is true. Perhaps you dodge the question because there is simply no evidence to support this concept, aside from propaganda? Richard argues that the notion of “good central government, bad local officials” is a myth. Clock responds by saying Gordon Chang has been wrong in his predictions about the Party’s demise. That is what we call a non-sequitur. Clock, if you want to refute Richard’s point, you need to provide some evidence as to why the “good central government, bad local officials” premise is true. Perhaps you dodge the question because there is simply no evidence to support this concept, aside from propaganda?

]]> By: Richard http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185596 Richard Wed, 10 Oct 2012 01:11:22 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185596 Wrong. My filter will allow URLs but no more than 2. And that's a bullshit reply. You could have said in your comment that you were citing someone, simply by saying "According to..." I really don't like copy and pasters who don't attribute. Really bad form. Don't do it again. Wrong. My filter will allow URLs but no more than 2. And that’s a bullshit reply. You could have said in your comment that you were citing someone, simply by saying “According to…” I really don’t like copy and pasters who don’t attribute. Really bad form. Don’t do it again.

]]> By: The Clock http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185595 The Clock Wed, 10 Oct 2012 00:10:21 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185595 Your filter will not allow urls Your filter will not allow urls

]]> By: Richard http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185594 Richard Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:52:00 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185594 Forgive me for asking, Mr. Clock, but is there a reason you didn't attribute this article that you cut and pasted, and presented as a comment? Readers can see what I mean over here: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151326#.UHS4Ifl27C8 Forgive me for asking, Mr. Clock, but is there a reason you didn’t attribute this article that you cut and pasted, and presented as a comment? Readers can see what I mean over here: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151326#.UHS4Ifl27C8

]]> By: The Clock http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185593 The Clock Tue, 09 Oct 2012 23:37:08 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185593 Gordon Chang, Who Predicted Collapse by 2012, Wants Extension Gordon Chang, who predicted China's fall by 2011, expects it to fall this year. President Harry Truman once remarked that he would prefer one-armed economists because they could not give him the on the one hand and on the other hand rigmarole. Truman would have undoubtedly admired China specialist Gordon G. Chang as a person willing to stick his neck out. The end of 2011 brought embarrassment to Chang, who had predicted in 2001 that the Chinese communist regime would collapse within 10 years. It didn't happen. Give Chang some credit as he is back in Foreign Policy Magazine to ask for another year. He is certain that his prophecy will be borne out in 2012. This recalls the book by Andrei Amalrik entitled "Will the Soviet Union Survive to 1984?" The Soviet Union did survive 1984 and Amalrik himself but was gone less than 10 years from that date. Chang argues that China prospered under a combination of conditions that are now in the process of evaporating. Thanks to the reforms of Deng Xiao Ping, who guided China in the post-Mao era, China was open to foreign visitors and investments. Now this trend has reversed itself and China has created barriers by insisting on "indigenous innovation" and preferring national champions. Privatization is giving way to renationalization. China benefited from the willingness of her economic partners to look the other way while China adopted a mercantilist party that discouraged imports and bolstered exports. Following the 2008 crash, those nations take a less benign view and want to export in order to maintain jobs and profits. The depressed demand for Chinese products and trade friction will blunt China's economic advance. China has tapped all the cheap labor that it couldmove from the countryside to the industrial plants and that advantage has exhausted itself. Soon the one child policy that the regime imposed on the citizens will beginto take its toll on the workforce as that workforce grows progressively greyer. The Chinese economy will soon begin to contract. The economic downturn comes at the same time as an upsurge in social unrest.The Communist Party has no answer to this unrest except for beefing up the police and troop presence and exercising severe censorship in all forms of the media. To paraphrase Lenin, all that is needed for a general conflagration in China is a spark and "an incident can get out of control and spread fast. Because people across the country share the same thoughts, we should not be surprised they will act the same way." If the collapse he predicts does not materialize, Chang can always reappear next year and ask for another extension. Gordon Chang, Who Predicted Collapse by 2012, Wants Extension
Gordon Chang, who predicted China’s fall by 2011, expects it to fall this year.

President Harry Truman once remarked that he would prefer one-armed economists because they could not give him the on the one hand and on the
other hand rigmarole.

Truman would have undoubtedly admired China specialist Gordon G. Chang as a person willing to stick his neck out. The end of 2011 brought embarrassment
to Chang, who had predicted in 2001 that the Chinese communist regime would collapse within 10 years. It didn’t happen.

Give Chang some credit as he is back in Foreign Policy Magazine to ask for another year. He is certain that his prophecy will be borne out in 2012. This recalls the book by Andrei Amalrik entitled “Will the Soviet Union Survive to 1984?” The Soviet Union did survive 1984 and Amalrik himself but was gone less than 10 years from that date.

Chang argues that China prospered under a combination of conditions that are now in the process of evaporating.

Thanks to the reforms of Deng Xiao Ping, who guided China in the post-Mao era, China was open to foreign visitors and investments. Now this trend has reversed itself and China has created barriers by insisting on “indigenous innovation” and preferring national champions. Privatization is giving way to renationalization.

China benefited from the willingness of her economic partners to look the other way while China adopted a mercantilist party that discouraged imports and bolstered exports. Following the 2008 crash, those nations take a less benign view and want to export in order to maintain jobs and profits.

The depressed demand for Chinese products and trade friction will blunt China’s economic advance. China has tapped all the cheap labor that it couldmove from the countryside to the industrial plants and that advantage has exhausted itself.

Soon the one child policy that the regime imposed on the citizens will beginto take its toll on the workforce as that workforce grows progressively greyer. The Chinese economy will soon begin to contract.

The economic downturn comes at the same time as an upsurge in social unrest.The Communist Party has no answer to this unrest except for beefing up the police and troop presence and exercising severe censorship in all forms of the media.

To paraphrase Lenin, all that is needed for a general conflagration in China is a spark and “an incident can get out of control and spread fast. Because people across the country share the same thoughts, we should not be surprised they will act the same way.”

If the collapse he predicts does not materialize, Chang can always reappear next year and ask for another extension.

]]> By: King Tubby http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185554 King Tubby Mon, 08 Oct 2012 19:57:44 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185554 FOARP @ Justrecently Wu Tang clan! (And I thought I had lowbrow musical taste.) I gave up on FOARP ages ago (Oasis footie chants), but expected better from you, JR. FOARP @ Justrecently

Wu Tang clan! (And I thought I had lowbrow musical taste.) I gave up on FOARP ages ago (Oasis footie chants), but expected better from you, JR.

]]> By: FOARP http://www.pekingduck.org/2012/10/the-myth-of-bad-local-officials-good-central-government/comment-page-1/#comment-185538 FOARP Mon, 08 Oct 2012 10:03:22 +0000 http://www.pekingduck.org/?p=10833#comment-185538 @KT - The unbelievable story of an official embezzling 2.8 BILLION US dollars now suddenly seems a lot more believable. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8674824/Chinese-rail-crash-scandal-official-steals-2.8-billion.html @KT – The unbelievable story of an official embezzling 2.8 BILLION US dollars now suddenly seems a lot more believable.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8674824/Chinese-rail-crash-scandal-official-steals-2.8-billion.html

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