“But the political system and its lacking legitimacy is the real problem. If it proves unable to overcome regional interests (the CCP is a brotherhood, rather than a hierarchy), it can’t make use of China’s existing opportunities.”

Unlike other political systems I hesitate to mention, it lacks legitimacy from the inside out, which is one of the two reasons it appears to be a brotherhood (the other being a marvelous predilection for bureaucratic obscurantism). This is likely the product of brotherhood’s historical association with deviance, not because CCP members fail to recognize the *correctness* of centralized nationalism.

I only mention this because I find the relationship between hierarchy and brotherhood fascinating.

Nothing is as good or bad as first reported. China never had the unlimited potential that our media kept addressing verses to for decades, but it does have potential. And I’m not even talking about the foreign-exchange reserves.

The economy poses big challenges, no doubt. But the political system and its lacking legitimacy is the real problem. If it proves unable to overcome regional interests (the CCP is a brotherhood, rather than a hierarchy), it can’t make use of China’s existing opportunities. That’s a problem, too. And all the while, many Chinese people feel that they are being manipulated, often without being able (or without daring) to discern the manipulative impositions from above, and that adds anger. The more people have been manipulated in the past (and found out about it in the meantime), the keener they feel manipulation in the present tense.

the Chinese are being consumed by anomie, a listless sense that life has little meaning

Richard, your line after that one seems to suggest that you see the problem of such generalizations yourself. Economic progress is one crucial factor in development, but while growth lasted (or continues to last – depending on what comes next), it was only a narcotic for that absence of meaning. What meaning does life have for Indians? For Russians? Or for Greeks?

But coming back to king tubby thoughts one of the things I think we all have to realise is how could the government know what to do or what is going on. If the government knew we would all be living in communist russia now.

I think the wests idea that China will save them is just that an idea. China faces the same demographic problems of Germany and Japan without the per person income to easily create a soft landing.

The constantly vacant apartments plus the crazy (until recently) commodity prices have been the things that trouble me the most. These two things just send out red flashing warning signs of asset bubbles. But part of my problem is I only come and go for short stays and I don’t have real in depth knowledge.

The funny thing is I remember when I was working in Indonesia for a few months in 92 that we expats were talking and when I was asked where I thought Indonesia was going. I said “look at the empty department stores selling CD’s for a mans wages for 2 weeks, how long do you think people will put up with that, 5-10 years then what?”. When I was at university I had to do one of those general education classes, I think it was in 1988 and the guy was going on about the free health care system China had which really helped the poor. I thought at the time that sounds great. Now I read your posts richard about living in China, something I have never done, and I feel sorry for their people. They have gained so much but seem to have lost something on the way, how long will the poor single men put up with their lot…5 years 10 then what?

I’m holding off on a few projects for awhile yet, when I will be able to hire mining engineers for 5 bucks an hour.

Don’t you just love those BHP Billiton tv ads….all those empowered women doing fulfilling jobs in hard hats. I get seriously aroused.