The tricky part is to decipher how much of it was truly their own volition, and how much of it was the product of years and years of CCP “education”. Unfortunately, that question is impossible to answer.

This does demonstrate that the CCP is willing to sacrifice foreigners (in the physical sense, with property destruction; and in the monetary sense, with trade shenanigans like increased port inspections of Japanese imports) for the purposes of making a point. But that’s really nothing new, and shouldn’t be at all surprising.

The preoccupation with attempts to prove the insincerity of the anti-Japanese demonstrations by demonstrating their government links is, I believe, a dangerous distraction.

Because it seems to imply that, if the demonstrations are government-organized/facilitated/supported/condoned, they can be dismissed and, if the demonstrations are removed from the equation, the PRC’s strategy on the Senkakus/Diaoyu can be dismissed as a futile exercise in Astroturfing (simulation of a grass-roots movement).

This, I think, draws from the preconception that impassioned popular demonstrations against authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, in Russia, and in China are the only ones that matter, and if they advance the agenda of authoritarian actors, they can be ignored.

However, the regime’s intention is not to try to manufacture a false Chinese simulacrum of Tahrir Square.

I believe the CCP is sending a series of messages to Japan and the United States via these demonstrations, and to send the message it is important that everybody is aware that they actually were state-managed.

First, the CCP is determined not to back down in the Senkaku/Diaoyu conflict. Although Japanese Prime Minister Noda stepped in to purchase the islands as a conciliatory measure in order to short circuit a carnival of provocation planned by Shintaro Ishihara, the governor of Tokyo, the CCP whipped up anti-Japanese sentiment and demonstrations on the announcement of the purchase regardless, in order to demonstrate its deterrent capabilities in economic and diplomatic warfare or, in old-fashioned terms, fire a shot across Japan’s bow.

Second, China does not intend to provoke a military confrontation at the islands that would viscerally alarm Japan’s populace and elite, and allow Japan to deploy its unanswerable geostrategic advantage: the military alliance with the United States. China’s provocative movements in the waters around the islands are carried out by maritime surveillance vessels and fishing boats, not the navy.

Instead, Japan will be confronted at its most vulnerable point: the economic interests of its corporations and the well-being of its citizens inside China.

Third, the CCP is conveying that it can manage the unrest that goes hand-in-hand with a mass campaign, and will be prepared to escalate the damage it inflicts on Japanese businesses in China as needed despite the losses suffered by the Chinese economy and Chinese employment.

Finally, the ultimate purpose of the furor over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands is to demonstrate that Japan must rely on accommodation with China, as well as its alliance with the United States, to achieve peace and prosperity.

In this regard, the protests were quite successful, in that they force Japan to recognize the limitations of its security alliance with the United States. The US won’t come riding to the rescue if Japanese businesses and investment on the mainland are burned, so Japan must rely on China to protect those.

Since these islands are useless from a strategic sense, it really reinforces the fact that the whole charade (from all sides) is just an elaborate chest-thumping (+/- egg throwing, +/- Toyota-burning) exercise.

PS, ignore my comments to Cleo – I do enjoy teasing people

“If you find that you are riding a dead horse, get off it and run away.”